Reproducibility package for Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data To Map Multidimensional Vulnerability In The Central African Republic
Reference ID
RR_CAF_2025_520
Author(s)
Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon, Vincent Nossek, Walker Kosmidou-Bradley, Frederic Mortier, Baptiste Cheville
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Jan 09, 2026
Last modified
Jan 16, 2026
Overview
Abstract
In fragile states such as the Central African Republic, where conflict and institutional fragility severely constrain traditional data collection, mapping multidimensional vulnerability and potential deprivation poses a significant challenge for designing targeted interventions. This paper presents an innovative geospatial dashboard that harnesses alternative data sources—including nighttime light intensity, other relevant satellite imagery, geocoded infrastructure inventories, and critical event records—to develop high-resolution indices (at a 5×5 km scale) of economic capacity, access to essential services (education, health, and water), flood exposure, and lethal conflict risks.
By employing a Bayesian state-space model to disaggregate sectoral GDP and friction-based accessibility metrics, our analysis uncovers pronounced spatial disparities: economic activity remains concentrated in urban hubs such as Bangui, while rural areas suffer from compounded vulnerabilities, including limited economic opportunities and poor service access. Cross-validation with the 2021 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey confirms the predictive validity of these indices for household wealth, with economic and service indicators positively correlated with welfare outcomes. Conversely, exposure to lethal conflict appears paradoxically associated with higher-value targets, potentially reflecting rent-seeking dynamics.
These tools enhance the precision of policy targeting in data-scarce environments, providing scalable and actionable insights for poverty alleviation in conflict-affected, low-income countries.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
File name
RR_CAF_2025_520
Zip package
RR_CAF_2025_520.zip
Title
Reproducibility package for Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data To Map Multidimensional Vulnerability In The Central African Republic
Date
2026-01
Dependencies
R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock.
Instructions
See README in reproducibility package.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Software
Name
R
Version
4.5.2
Reproducibility
Technology environment
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: macOS Sequoia
• Processor: Apple M4 Pro
• Memory available: 24 GB
Technology requirements
Runtime: ~10 minutes
Reproduction instructions
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a new user should follow the steps below:
- Obtain access to the restricted datasets and place them in the appropriate folders, as described in the Data Availability section.
- Open the R Project located at
Scripts/Scripts.Rproj. - Restore the R environment using
renv::restore()and follow the prompts. Alternatively, install the required packages manually using the information provided in the renv.lock file. - Open the main script and run the code to execute the full workflow.
Because some datasets are restricted and therefore not included in the reproducibility package, the results obtained by the replicators are provided in theOutputsfolder. These outputs allow users to verify the findings against the results reported in the paper.
Data
Datasets
Name
Grid-Level Indices of Economic Activity, Services Accessibility, and Risk Exposure for the Central African Republic
Note
Source: Authors’ construction using QGIS; underlying sources as documented in Appendix Table A.1 (EOG, Colorado School of Mines; LandScan/ORNL; MODIS; University of Maryland; Minex; U.S. Geological Survey; IPIS).
File location: Inputs/Base_CAF_v1.csv.
Access date: 20/11/2024.
Access policy
Data is included in the reproducibility package
Citation
Authors' construction. (2025). Grid-Level Indices of Economic Activity, Services Accessibility, and Risk Exposure for the Central African Republic [dataset].
Name
Population Point Exposure to Lethal Conflict for the Central African Republic
Note
Authors’ construction using QGIS based on Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Since redistribution of this dataset is not allowed by the licensing terms, a list of variables is included in the README file.
File location: Inputs/CAF_Pop_pts_MTI_SCIR.csv.
Access date: 15/11/2024.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
ACLED End User License Agreement
License URL
https://acleddata.com/eula
Data URL
https://acleddata.com/conflict-data
Citation
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). (2025). Population Point Exposure to Lethal Conflict for the Central African Republic [dataset]. https://acleddata.com/conflict-data
Name
Fathom Global 3.0 Flood Risk
Note
Population point–level exposure to flood risk, extracted at each population point. Flood hazard exposure is based on Fathom Global 3.0 flood risk datasets (30 m; 2020–2030). Since the data is limited-access and not included in the reproducibility package, the list of variables used is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org.
File location: Inputs/CAF_Pop_pts_MTI_Flood2.csv.
Access date: 15/11/2024.
Access policy
Data is limited-access and is not included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://www.fathom.global/newsroom/world-bank-collaboration/
Citation
Fathom, World Bank. (2025). Fathom Global 3.0 Flood Risk [dataset]. https://www.fathom.global/newsroom/world-bank-collaboration/
Name
Grid-Level Indices for the Central African Republic
Note
Data was created manually using QGIS with information from ICASEES Surveys. This dataset provides population point–level information on access to health facilities, primary schools, and water points. Data was extracted at each population point available. A list of the variables is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org.
File location: Inputs/CAF_Pop_pts_MTI_stats_wWater.csv.
Access policy
Data is restricted and is not included in the reproducibility package
Citation
Authors' construction with information from Institut Centrafricain des Statistiques et des Etudes Economiques et Sociales (ICASEES). (2025). Grid-Level Indices for the Central African Republic [dataset].
Name
Sectoral Gross Domestic Product and Nighttime Lights Time Series for the Central African Republic
Note
This dataset was manually compiled by the authors in QGIS. It includes historical GDP data disaggregated by sector, together with nighttime lights data.
Sectoral GDP data are drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators, National Accounts data from the national statistical institute ICASEES, and internal computations for older series.
Nighttime lights are computed using the DMSP series from the Colorado School of Mines Earth Observation Group (EOG) (https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/dmsp/). As the data is restricted, the list of variables is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org.
File location: gdpSectLight_1960To2022.RDS.
Years included: 1960-2023.
Access date: 05/06/2024.
Access policy
Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
Citation
Authors' construction. (2025). Sectoral Gross Domestic Product and Nighttime Lights Time Series for the Central African Republic [dataset].
Name
Household-Level Regression Dataset Matched to Grid-Level Indices
Note
Dataset resulting from a spatial join between household-level data from the 2021 Harmonized Household Living Conditions Survey and grid-level indices produced by script '2_Vulnerability_indices.R'. The survey is collected by the national statistical institute (ICASEES) with the support of partners, including the World Bank Group, and is available internally only.
Files location: reg_data_light.dta. Since the data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package, the list of variables used is included in the README file. For more information regarding this dataset, users can contact the authors at pmandon@worldbank.org.
Access policy
Data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package.
Citation
Authors' construction. (2025). Household-Level Regression Dataset Matched to Grid-Level Indices. [dataset]
Name
Global Administrative Areas Database
Note
The data were transformed into a regular 5×5 km grid covering the full territory of the Central African Republic by applying a grid function to the national boundary shapefile from the Global Administrative Areas database (GADM 4.1). For mapping purposes, the authors also created a simplified version of this grid containing fewer administrative variables.
Files location: Input/GIS/gadm41_CAF_1_2020.shp (original national boundary); Input/GIS/Grid_5km_CFA_v4.* (5×5 km grid); Input/GIS/BaseGrid_NewPrefs.shp (simplified grid for mapping).
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package
License
GADM license
License URL
https://gadm.org/license.html
Data URL
https://geodata.ucdavis.edu/gadm/gadm4.1/shp/gadm41_CAF_shp.zip
Citation
University of California, Davis. (n.d). Global Administrative Areas database [dataset]. https://geodata.ucdavis.edu/gadm/gadm4.1/shp/gadm41_CAF_shp.zip
Name
Central African Republic - Subnational Administrative Boundaries
Note
Files location: input/GIS/caf_admbnda_adm3_200k_sigcaf_reach_itos_v2.*.
Access date: 22/13/2023.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package
License
Creative Commons Attribution for Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY-IGO)
License URL
https://data.humdata.org/faqs/licenses
Data URL
https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-caf
Citation
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED). (2024). Central African Republic - Subnational Administrative Boundaries [dataset]. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-caf
Name
Main Cities of the Central African Republic
Note
Spatial layer of main cities in the Central African Republic, manually reproduced as a shapefile in QGIS based on the publicly available map of main cities published on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_the_Central_African_Republic#/media/File:Central_African_Republic-CIA_WFB_Map.png). Files location: input/GIS/CAR_main_cities.*.
Access policy
Data is included in the reproducibility package
Citation
Authors' construction. (2025). Main Cities of the Central African Republic [dataset].
Data statement
Some data is restricted and not included in the reproducibility package. For more information, see the README file.
Description
Output
Type
Working Paper
Title
Unveiling Hidden Hardships: Leveraging Alternative Data To Map Multidimensional Vulnerability In The Central African Republic
Description
Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon | World Bank | pmandon@worldbank.org |
| Vincent Nossek | World Bank | vnossek@worldbank.org |
| Walker Kosmidou-Bradley | World Bank | wkosmidoubradley@worldbank.org |
| Frederic Mortier | CIRAD, Montpellier, France | frederic.mortier2@gmail.com |
| Baptiste Cheville | Phoenix Consulting International, Paris, France | bastien.cheville@gmail.com |
Date of production
2026-01-08
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Central African Republic | CAF |
Keywords
Alternative Data
Development Economics
Fragile States
Multidimensional Poverty
Satellite Imagery
Conflict
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Pierre Jean-Claude Mandon | World Bank | pmandon@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2026-01-08
Document version
1