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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Global Fertility Responses To Climate-Related Hazards Depend On Population Disruption, Lethality, And Hazard Type

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_562
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/p0g2-ps38
Author(s)
Ana María Tribín Uribe, Stefany López Vera, Leonardo Bonilla Mejía, Alejandro Lopez-Feldman
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Feb 13, 2026
Last modified
Feb 18, 2026
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Global fertility is declining, yet it remains unclear whether and how climate-related hazards contribute to realised fertility change. We combine global fertility data with disaster records for 1950–2023 to estimate fertility responses to climate-related hazards, distinguishing between population disruption (affected-rate exposure) and lethality (death-rate exposure). Climate-related hazards show no systematic fertility response under population disruption, but are associated with persistent fertility reductions under lethality lasting at least 15 years. Aggregate climate estimates mask heterogeneity across hazard types: storms and drought-related hazards drive fertility declines, whereas heat and cold waves are associated with modest fertility increases; hydrological events show additional negative effects in high-lethality episodes. Over time, disruption-based effects remain weak, while lethality-based effects are consistently negative but attenuate in recent decades. Fertility responses vary little across income groups, and non-climate disasters remain fertility-reducing. These results show that fertility responses to climate risk depend on hazard type and lethal severity, rather than on how many people are affected.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_562
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_562.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Global Fertility Responses To Climate-Related Hazards Depend On Population Disruption, Lethality, And Hazard Type
    Date
    2026-02
    Dependencies
    R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    R
    Version
    4.5.2

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: MacOS Tahoe M4 pro
    • Memory available: 497 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time: 40 minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a new user should follow the steps below:

    1. Obtain access to the data not included in the package. The EM-DAT dataset is publicly available but does not allow redistribution. Please follow the instructions provided in the data entry for this dataset and place the downloaded files in the appropriate folder specified in the package structure.
    2. Open the R project. Open the file replication_package.Rproj.
    3. Restore the software environment. Restore the project environment by running renv::restore() and follow the on-screen prompts. Alternatively, you may install the required dependencies manually.
    4. Run the main replication script. Execute the main script 00_run_all.R.

      Note on EM-DAT updates
      The EM-DAT dataset is updated regularly. If users download the dataset directly from the provider, results may differ from those reported in the paper. For transparency and reference, the results produced by the replicators at the time of verification are included in the reproducibility package in the outputs folder.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    United Nations World Population Prospects 2024
    Note
    Files location: data/raw/un/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx Click on “Download data files”. Under “Demographic Indicators”, download: "Compact (most used: estimates and medium projections) (XLSX)".
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
    Data URL
    https://population.un.org/wpp/
    Citation
    United Nations. 2024. "United Nations World Population Prospects 2024" [dataset]. https://population.un.org/wpp/.
    Name
    EM-DAT Natural Disasters Database
    Note
    File location: data/raw/emdat_natural_1950_2023.xlsx. Required filters for download: Classification: Natural; Geographic coverage: All continents; Time period: 1950–2023; Activate “Include historical events (pre-2000)”. User needs to download using the appropriate filters and place the dataframe in the data/raw folder.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License URL
    https://doc.emdat.be/docs/legal/terms-of-use/
    Data URL
    https://www.emdat.be/
    Citation
    Université Catholique de Louvain - Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). 2025. "Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT)" [dataset]. https://public.emdat.be/
    Name
    World Bank Income Classification
    Note
    File location: data/raw/CLASS.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/the-world-by-income-and-region.html
    Citation
    World Bank. 2024. "World Bank Income Classification" [dataset]. https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/the-world-by-income-and-region.html
    Data statement

    All data sources are publicly available, but not all are included in the reproducibility package.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Global Fertility Responses To Climate-Related Hazards Depend On Population Disruption, Lethality, And Hazard Type
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Ana María Tribín Uribe World Bank atribinuribe@worldbank.org
    Stefany López Vera Universidad EAFIT, Colombia slopezv22@eafit.edu.co
    Leonardo Bonilla Mejía Banco de la República, Colombia bonilme@banrep.gov.co
    Alejandro Lopez-Feldman University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico alejandro.lopez.feldman@efd.gu.se
    Date of production

    2026-02-03

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Fertility Climate Hazards Disaster Lethality Population Disruption Demographic Change
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    J13 Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth J1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q54 Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Ana María Tribín Uribe World Bank atribinuribe@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-02-03
    Document version

    1

    Citation

    Citation
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