Reproducibility package for Urban Heat, Mortality, And Economic Costs: Evidence From Bangkok, Thailand
Overview
Background: Urban heat is an increasingly important public health risk, yet empirical evidence on its health and economic impacts remains limited, particularly for rapidly growing tropical megacities. This study aims to provide an operational basis for urban planning and investment decisions by quantifying heat-induced health burdens across Bangkok’s 50 amphurs and the associated citywide economic costs.
Methods: This study translates heat exposure into excess deaths at the amphur level by employing a city-specific temperature-mortality relationship established by Denpetkul and Phosri (2021) along with data on population and mortality. It then converts the number of excess deaths to monetary terms based on the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) estimated by Witvorapong and Komonpaisarn (2019).
Results: On average, an estimated 593 deaths per year were attributable to higher-than-optimal temperatures during 2016–2018, amounting to 1,778 deaths over the three-year period, with substantial variation across amphurs and months. This represents a significant public health burden, comparable in magnitude to road traffic fatalities in Bangkok, which claimed 614 lives in 2021. In monetary terms, heat-related excess mortality is estimated to account for 0.1–0.7 percent of Bangkok’s gross provincial product during 2016–2018 (7.76–46.97 billion baht in current prices), exceeding the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration’s public health budget in 2020 (6.733 billion baht).
Conclusions: Heat exposure in Bangkok is associated with substantial public health impacts and economically meaningful welfare losses. The pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity in estimated impacts underscores the importance of place-specific interventions and prioritization of higher-risk amphurs. Quantifying heat-related impacts in monetary terms can support more robust cost–benefit analysis and inform evidence-based urban planning and investment decisions for heat mitigation and adaptation.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (4 processors)
• Memory available: 32 GB
Run time: ~ 5 minutes
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See subsection Datasets for more details.
- Download and Place Data: Once the data is accessed, users should place it in the appropriate folder.
- Run the Package: After placing the data in the folder:
- Open the R project "(EAP_THA_BKK_Heat_Package.Rproj)". Restore the environment by running renv::restore() and following the promtps. Run the R script "eap_tha_bkk_heat_temperature".
- Update the global in line 8 in the do-file "eap_tha_bkk_heat_analysis" and run the do-file.
Since all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Jane Park | World Bank | jpark16@worldbank.org |
| Steven Louis Rubinyi | World Bank | srubinyi@worldbank.org |
2026-03-18
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Thailand | THA |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Jane Park | World Bank | jpark16@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-03-18
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