This study develops a common framework to compare the magnitude of national level losses that the COVID-19 pandemic inflicted across three critical dimensions – loss of life, loss of income, and loss of learning – and then explores the global distribution of such losses. To help inform public discussions, the well-being consequences of excess mortality are expressed in years of life lost, while those of income losses and school closures are expressed in additional person-years spent in poverty, either currently or in the future (due to lower growth). While 2020–21 witnessed a global drop in life expectancy and the largest one-year increase in global poverty in many decades, widespread school closures may cause almost twice as large an increase in future poverty. The estimates of well-being loss for the average global citizen include a loss of 8 days of life, an additional two and half weeks spent in poverty in 2020 and 2021 (17 days), and the possibility of an additional month of life in poverty in the future due to school closures (31 days). The distribution of pandemic costs was highly unequal globally. While aggregating total losses requires the valuation of a year of life lost vis-à-vis an additional year spent in poverty, high-income countries experienced the lowest well-being losses for a wide range of valuations. Aggregate losses were much higher among lower-income countries, especially countries in the Latin America region who suffered the largest mortality costs as well as large losses in learning and sharp increases in poverty.
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @ 2.30GHz (2.30 GHz) (2 processors)
• Memory available: 16.0 GB
Run time: ~ 8 minutes
Update the working directory in line 23 of "00-Master" do-file and run the code to reproduce the results.
All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Jed Friedman | World Bank | jfriedman@worldbank.org |
| Nishant Yonzan | World Bank | nyonzan@worldbank.org |
| Benoit Decerf | University of Namur | benoit.decerf@unamur.be |
| Arthur Galego Mendes | World Bank | agalegomendes@worldbank.org |
| Steven Michael Pennings | World Bank | spennings@worldbank.org |
2026-03-31
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Jed Friedman | World Bank | jfriedman@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-03-31
1