Reproducibility package for Project-Level Learning Lowers Conflict Cost Premium Of Energy Access

Energy access in conflict-affected states carries a cost premium — yet there is little evidence of its magnitude and whether it can, at least partially, be mitigated. Analyzing 923 World Bank-financed solar PV installations across Yemen between 2019 and 2025, this analysis finds that project-level learning systematically reduces conflict-linked costs, including in the most volatile regions. The aggregate price decomposition attributes 16.8 percentage points of cost reduction to project-level factors. More generally, a Shapley Machine Learning decomposition of project-level cost variation confirms that project-level learning is the most powerful predictor, explaining 45.2% of cost variation. Critically, the conflict-cost relationship evolves over successive procurement cycles: early packages exhibit a significant positive conflict premium, which is gradually mitigated. Cost trajectories converge regardless of whether governorates experienced escalating or de-escalating violence, confirming that learning operates independently of security trends.