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Reproducibility package for Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_605
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/fjy9-7227
Author(s)
Abdulrasheed Isah, Jun Rentschler, Robin Middelanis, Paolo Avner, Stephane Hallegatte
Metadata
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Created on
Apr 09, 2026
Last modified
Apr 09, 2026
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Natural hazards can profoundly disrupt economies, yet their impact on employment remains underexplored. This study quantifies job losses due to floods, earthquakes, winds and storm surges, tsunamis, and heat across 132 countries, using a full-time job equivalent losses (JEL) estimation approach. Results show that fast-onset natural shocks cause 9.4 million JEL annually, predominantly due to earthquakes and floods, with burdens concentrated in East Asia and the Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, extreme heat is associated with 79.7 million JEL annually across 114 countries, between 2015 and 2024, with the burdens concentrated in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, low-income countries experience the highest job loss rate per capita. Within countries, the poorest population group bears a disproportionate share of JEL. These results highlight the urgent need for targeted adaptation and resilience measures that safeguard workers, jobs, and productivity to support economic development.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_605
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_605.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards
    Date
    2026-04
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Repository
    Model used in this package: https://github.com/rmiddelanis/global-unbreakable-model
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.11

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Mac OS.
    • Chip: Apple M4 Pro
    • Memory available: 24 GB
    • Software version: Python 3.11
    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 70 minutes.

    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, there are two options:

    Option 1 — Run the notebooks directly

    The outputs of calculate_JEL.py (JEL.csv, macro.csv, and related files) needed to run the main code are already included in data/raw/. Run the notebooks in order:

    1. code/JEL_Main.ipynb — generates Figures 1–4 and supplementary tables
    2. code/JEL_Main_Heat.ipynb — generates Figure 5

    Outputs are saved to output/figures/ and output/tables/.

    Option 2 — Run the full process from raw data

    The first part of the replication (calculate_JEL.py) generates the input files for the notebooks by running the Global Unbreakable Model. Note that this step depends on a live GitHub repository (github.com/rmiddelanis/UB-jobs); if it has been updated since replication, results may differ from those in the paper. The outputs generated at the time of replication are included in data/raw/, along with a data hash report (data_hash_report.csv), to support data integrity checks.

    1. Clone the submodule (the lib/global-unbreakable-model folder is empty in the zip distribution): git clone https://github.com/rmiddelanis/global-unbreakable-model.git
    2. Run the model: calculate_JEL.py.
    3. Copy outputs to data/raw/.
    4. Run the notebooks in order:
      1. code/JEL_Main.ipynb — generates Figures 1–4 and supplementary tables
      2. code/JEL_Main_Heat.ipynb — generates Figure 5

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Household Simulation Results
    Note
    Household-level simulation outputs generated by the Global Unbreakable Model, including welfare loss estimates by country, quintile, and hazard type. The portion of code and data needed to run the model is included in the replication package. Output file: JEL.csv. The code and model inputs needed to reproduce this output are included in the replication package. In addition, the data generated by the replication code (calculate_JEL.py) is already included in the package.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Public Repository
    Data URL
    https://github.com/rmiddelanis/UB-jobs/tree/main/output
    Citation
    Middelanis, R. et al. Global Unbreakable Model — Simulation Outputs [dataset]. Available at https://github.com/rmiddelanis/UB-jobs/tree/main/data/model_data/simulation_outputs
    Name
    Country-Level Macro Indicators
    Note
    Country-level macroeconomic parameters used as inputs to the Global Unbreakable Model. File location: macro.csv.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Public Repository
    Data URL
    https://github.com/rmiddelanis/UB-jobs/tree/main/data/model_data/simulation_outputs
    Citation
    Middelanis, R. et al. Global Unbreakable Model — Model Data [dataset]. Available at https://github.com/rmiddelanis/UB-jobs/tree/main/data/model_data/simulation_outputs
    Name
    Working Time Statistics
    Note
    Average weekly working hours by country, sourced from ILOSTAT. File location: weekly_work_hours.csv. Access date: December 19, 2025.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://www.ilo.org/rights-and-permissions
    Data URL
    https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/working-time/
    Citation
    International Labour Organization. (2025). Working Time Statistics [dataset]. ILOSTAT. Available at https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/working-time/. Access date: December 19, 2025.
    Name
    World Development Indicators
    Note
    Files location: macro_ilo.csv; employment_pop_ratio.csv. Indicators: Employment-to-Population Ratio; Country-level data on population; World Bank income group
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. (2025). World Development Indicators [dataset]. World Bank DataBank. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Name
    Lancet Countdown 2025 Report — Work Hours Lost Indicator
    Note
    Annual work hours lost by country due to extreme heat exposure, sourced from the Lancet Countdown 2025 Report. File location: hours_lost_ilo.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-Share Alike Licence (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
    License URL
    https://lancetcountdown.org/use-our-data/
    Data URL
    https://lancetcountdown.org/use-our-data/
    Citation
    Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change. (2025). Lancet Countdown 2025 Report — Work Hours Lost Indicator [dataset]. Available at https://lancetcountdown.org/explore-our-data/. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Name
    Statistics on earnings and labour income
    Note
    Labor wages by country compiled from multiple sources: ILOSTAT (primary source), China National Bureau of Statistics, and OECD. The following sources were used: (1) ILO Labour Statistics — Wages | URL: https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/wages/; (2) China National Bureau of Statistics Press Release | URL: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202505/t20250520_1959885.html; (3) OECD Average Annual Wages | URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html. File location: ilo_wages.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://www.ilo.org/rights-and-permissions
    Data URL
    https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/wages/
    Citation
    International Labour Organization. (2026). Statistics on earnings and labour income [dataset]. ILOSTAT. Available at https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/wages/. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Name
    Average Annual Wages of Persons Employed in Urban Units in 2024
    Note
    Labor wages by country compiled from multiple sources: ILOSTAT (primary source), China National Bureau of Statistics, and OECD. The following sources were used: (1) ILO Labour Statistics — Wages | URL: https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/wages/; (2) China National Bureau of Statistics Press Release | URL: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202505/t20250520_1959885.html; (3) OECD Average Annual Wages | URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html. File location: ilo_wages.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.
    License
    National Bureau of Statistics of China Terms of Service
    License URL
    https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/nbs/200701/t20070104_59236.html
    Data URL
    https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202505/t20250520_1959885.html
    Citation
    National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2025). Average Annual Wages of Persons Employed in Urban Units in 2024 [dataset]. Available at: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202505/t20250520_1959885.html.
    Name
    Average Annual Wages
    Note
    Labor wages by country compiled from multiple sources: ILOSTAT (primary source), China National Bureau of Statistics, and OECD. The following sources were used: (1) ILO Labour Statistics — Wages | URL: https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/wages/; (2) China National Bureau of Statistics Press Release | URL: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202505/t20250520_1959885.html; (3) OECD Average Annual Wages | URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html. File location: ilo_wages.csv. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html
    Data URL
    https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html
    Citation
    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2025). Average Annual Wages [dataset]. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/average-annual-wages.html. Access date: February 1, 2026.
    Name
    World Country Shapefile
    Note
    1:110m resolution country boundaries shapefile used for choropleth maps. File location: ne_110m_admin_0_countries.zip. Access date: March 24, 2026.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the replication package.
    License
    Natural Earth Terms of Use
    License URL
    https://www.naturalearthdata.com/about/terms-of-use/
    Data URL
    https://naciscdn.org/naturalearth/110m/cultural/ne_110m_admin_0_countries.zip
    Citation
    Natural Earth. (2026). World Country Shapefile: Admin 0 – Countries, 1:110m [shapefile]. Available at https://naciscdn.org/naturalearth/110m/cultural/ne_110m_admin_0_countries.zip
    Data statement

    All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Worldwide Job Losses Due To Natural Hazards
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Abdulrasheed Isah World Bank aisah@worldbank.org
    Jun Rentschler World Bank jrentschler@worldbank.org
    Robin Middelanis World Bank rmiddelanis@worldbank.org
    Paolo Avner World Bank pavner@worldbank.org
    Stephane Hallegatte World Bank shallegatte@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2026-04-03

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Natural Hazards Job Equivalent Losses
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    Q50 General Q5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q54 Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J23 Labor Demand J2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J63 Turnover • Vacancies • Layoffs J6 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    I30 General I3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O15 Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Abdulrasheed Isah World Bank aisah@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-04-03
    Document version

    1

    Citation

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