Reproducibility package for Economy-Wide Benefits Of Improved Hydrometeorological Forecasts And Services In Cambodia

This paper estimates the macroeconomic benefits of improved hydrometeorological forecast services in Cambodia using the World Bank's MFMod macro-fiscal model. Three impact channels—disaster risk reduction (DRR) for flood damages, agricultural productivity increase, and electricity cost reduction—are considered under optimistic and pessimistic climate change projections until the year 2050. Benefits under current forecast skill and continued investment into forecast improvements are compared to a control scenario without any forecast benefits. When all channels operate jointly, GDP is estimated to be 2.50–4.30% above the no-forecast control by 2050. Continued improvement of forecast services yields a 1.3–1.4% increase in GDP, compared to the status quo scenario with constant forecast skill. Agricultural productivity is the dominant channel for economic benefits, while DRR contributions grow with climate severity and become increasingly important under the pessimistic scenario. Electricity cost reduction (through improved hydropower production) contributes positively across all scenarios, though at a lower order of magnitude. Aggregate benefits are larger under the pessimistic climate scenario, because DRR channel returns amplify with increasing flood exposure. Back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest large benefit-cost ratios, making an economic case for improved hydrometeorological forecasts and services. The results provide quantitative support for sustained investment in hydrometeorological infrastructure.