Reproducibility package for Learning At Scale Infrastructure, Aid Effectiveness, And World Bank Performance
Overview
This paper re-examines aid effectiveness using ex-post Economic Rates of Return (ERR) from 2,500 World Bank–financed infrastructure projects over six decades. Three facts emerge. First, average value creation is high: the mean ERR is 24% (median 18.5%). Second, returns rise over time: after relative stability through the mid‑1980s, ERRs increase from the late 1980s onward, consistent with improved selection, design, and delivery. Third, ERRs are systematically higher in countries with weak institutions. In such countries, high quality World Bank performance is associated with about a 12‑point increase in average ERRs. A plausible mechanism is talent deployment: higher‑quality Task Team Leaders are disproportionately assigned to the most challenging contexts and are linked to faster time‑to‑effectiveness and higher ERRs, despite longer, more intensive implementation. Overall, alongside country fundamentals, World Bank performance and talent deployment materially raise returns to scarce capital—especially where governance is weak.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ (2.80 GHz) (4 processors)
• Memory available: 32 GB
Run time: ~ 5 minutes
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
- Run the Package:
- Update the working directory in line 15 of
Replication_1-april._final.do, and run it. - Update the working directory in line 15 of
Replication_2_april_final.do, and run it.
- Update the working directory in line 15 of
Since all the original data cannot be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
All data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Vagliasindi | World Bank | mvagliasindi@worldbank.org |
| Somik Lall | World Bank | slall1@worldbank.org |
| Xinyi Su | Cambridge University | xs308@cam.ac.uk |
2026-05-18
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Maria Vagliasindi | World Bank | mvagliasindi@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-05-18
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