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Reproducibility package for Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia

2026
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Reference ID
RR_SAU_2026_666
Author(s)
Harry Anthony Patrinos, Tomasz Gajderowicz
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Aug 10, 2026
Last modified
Aug 17, 2026
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Quality education drives economic growth and equality. Saudi Arabia has achieved near-universal enrollment but still trails peers in learning quality, limiting workforce readiness. Using data from 97 countries (2000-2019), this paper models how Harmonized Learning Outcomes affect GDP growth, accounting for factors like resource income. A 180-point rise in learning—matching the world’s best—could raise Saudi GDP by 27 percent in 20 years, or $225 billion (in 2021 prices). Simulated scenarios yield gains of $125 to $156 billion, or 15 percent to 19 percent of GDP, with front-loaded improvements offering faster returns. Strengthening teaching, curricula, early childhood programs, and private sector engagement is key to realizing these gains.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_SAU_2026_666
    Zip package
    RR_SAU_2026_666.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia
    Date
    2026-08
    Dependencies
    R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    R
    Version
    4.5.2
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    19.5 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 5218 CPU @ 2.30GHz (2.30 GHz) (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 16 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time ~ 3 minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Update the global directory in estimation do file on line 9 and run the file
    2. Update the global directory in WB Projection method R script file on line 3 and run the file

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    HLO Original Data - Author-Compiled Analysis Dataset
    Note
    Author-compiled analysis-ready dataset assembled from the following public sources: (1) Harmonized Learning Outcomes (HLO) Database (World Bank, Data360): harmonized learning outcomes in mathematics, including country, assessment, year, subject, grade, score, and HLO variables. Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https://data360files.worldbank.org/data360-data/data/WB_HLO/WB_HLO_WIDEF.csv. Related publication: Angrist, Noam, Simeon Djankov, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, and Harry A. Patrinos. 2021. Measuring human capital using global learning data. Nature 592: 403-408. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03323-7. License: CC BY 4.0. (2) World Development Indicators (World Bank): control variables including GDP per capita growth (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG), GDP per capita PPP constant 2017 international dollars (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD), gross capital formation (NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS), labor force participation (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), life expectancy (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), expense (GC.XPN.TOTL.GD.ZS), trade (NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS), FDI net inflows (BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS), natural resource rents (NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS), and government expenditure on education (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS). Access via World Bank Indicator API. Accessed 2 October 2022. License: CC BY 4.0. (3) Expected years of schooling (SE.SCH.LIFE), World Bank WDI; original source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/SE.SCH.LIFE?downloadformat=excel. License: CC BY 4.0. (4) Mean years of schooling (ISCED 1 or higher), population 25+ years, both sexes; UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) Data Browser, Other Policy Relevant Indicators - Education (OPRI). Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https://databrowser.uis.unesco.org/browser/EDUCATION/UIS-EducationOPRI/mys. License: CC BY-SA 4.0. No confidential or proprietary data are included. File location: data/HLO Original Data.dta.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom License
    Citation
    World Bank. 2022. "Harmonized Learning Outcomes (HLO) Database" [dataset]. Author-compiled dataset drawing on World Bank Data360, World Development Indicators, and UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Accessed 2 October 2022.
    Name
    GCC, MENA, and KSA Simulation Workbook
    Note
    Author-compiled simulation and input workbook drawing on the following sources: (1) GDP current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), World Bank World Development Indicators: 2021 country GDP levels in current US dollars used as baseline GDP values in USD billions for Saudi Arabia, GCC, and MENA country simulations. Accessed 2 October 2022. URL: https://api.worldbank.org/v2/en/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?downloadformat=excel. License: CC BY 4.0. (2) SAR/USD conversion rate, Saudi Central Bank (SAMA): fixed model conversion of SAR 3.75 per USD 1 used to express Saudi GDP in SAR billions where shown in the workbook. Accessed June 2026. URL: https://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/Currency/FinExc/Pages/Currency.aspx. Used only to document the fixed conversion factor; not redistributed as a dataset. (3) Education-quality improvement scenarios (authors' own): +25, +50, +100, and +180 one-time improvements; linear, backloaded, and frontloaded paths over 20 years; target and baseline score parameters embedded in the workbook and R script. See manuscript Table 1 and Appendix Tables B4-C3. (4) Growth coefficients (authors' own econometric estimates): coefficients 0.009, 0.034, and 0.06 generated from data/HLO Original Data.dta using code/stata/estimations.do, corresponding to pooled OLS, Arellano-Bond, and Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond estimates in Appendix Tables B1-B3. (5) Country group definitions (authors' own classification): MENA countries include Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia; GCC countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. File location: outputs/excel/gcc_mena_ksa_2025.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom License
    Citation
    Authors' own compilation. 2026. "GCC, MENA, and KSA Simulation Workbook" [dataset]. Based on World Bank World Development Indicators, Saudi Central Bank exchange rate data, and authors' own simulation assumptions and econometric estimates. Accessed June 2026
    Data statement

    All data sources are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Quality Matters: Estimating Economic Impacts Of Improving Education Quality In The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Harry Anthony Patrinos University of Arkansas patrinos@uark.edu
    Tomasz Gajderowicz University of Warsaw tgajderowicz@uw.edu.pl
    Date of production

    2026-08-07

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Saudi Arabia SAU
    Keywords
    Education Learning Outcomes Quality Of Education Economic Growth Saudi Arabia
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    I25 Education and Economic Development I2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    I26 Returns to Education I2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O40 General O4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Mahmoud Elsayed World Bank melsayed@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-08-07
    Document version

    1
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