Reproducibility package for Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100
Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_709
Author(s)
Yasuhiro Kawasoe
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Aug 26, 2026
Last modified
Aug 26, 2026
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Overview
Abstract
Global housing demand is rising rapidly, yet the combined pressures of future population growth, climate-driven hazard intensification, and constrained fiscal capacity have not been assessed together for their impact on housing at global scale. Housing is one of the largest components of household wealth and national capital stock. This study provides the first global, country-level picture of future housing construction demand and its associated costs, and identifies where the needs for resilient construction are most urgent. The lack of high-resolution, globally consistent geospatial and demographic data has limited previous analyses. This study integrates Shared Socioeconomic Pathways based population projections to 2100 with dynamic household size modelling, cohort survival analysis, and multi-hazard exposure mapping to estimate future housing construction demand and its associated costs under business-as-usual and resilient construction pathways. Global housing stock is projected to nearly double by 2100, reaching 4.1 to 4.5 billion units. Resilient construction pathways are found to carry lower long-term costs than business-as-usual in most regions, though not in high-growth, high-hazard regions such as South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Construction demand in most regions is projected to transition from growth-driven to replacement-driven by mid-century, suggesting that the decisions made today about how and where it is built will shape countries' exposure to natural hazards and their fiscal obligations for decades to come. This study further identifies 46 countries facing a triple burden: high future housing demand, severe natural hazard exposure, and limited fiscal capacity to finance resilient construction. The nature of this burden varies systematically by region, with Pacific Island Countries facing acute fiscal constraints, Sub-Saharan Africa facing unprecedented volumetric demand, and South and Southeast Asian countries facing the highest hazard exposure. These findings provide a quantitative basis for prioritizing resilient housing investment, nationally and through international support, differentiated across regions and individual countries.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
File name
RR_WLD_2026_709
Zip package
RR_WLD_2026_709.zip
Title
Reproducibility package for Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100
Date
2026-08
Instructions
See README in reproducibility package.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Technology environment
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Technology requirements
Run time: ~48 hours
Reproduction instructions
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
- Run the Package:
- Restore the environment using “requirements.txt.”
- Update the file paths to match the local environment.
- Run the Jupyter notebooks in the order specified in the README.
Note: Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper. Additionally, Notebooks 4.1 and 4.2 require a Google Earth Engine account and a registered Google Cloud project to programmatically download some of the data. However, the downloaded and processed files are also included in the reproducibility package in data_processed/GEM, data_processed/GEE_flood, and data_processed/GEE_heat. The included files provide the inputs required to reproduce the subsequent analysis without repeating the data download.
Data
Datasets
Name
World Bank Official Boundaries (GeoPackage)
Note
Filenames: data_raw\WB_Official_Boundaries\World Bank Official Boundaries - Admin 0.gpkg, data_raw\WB_Official_Boundaries\World Bank Official Boundaries - Admin 0_all_layers.gpkg, data_raw\WB_Official_Boundaries\World Bank Official Boundaries - Admin 1.gpkg. File in wb_adm1_2024oct_revised_complete_v20260114\*.shp are processed files produced using QGIS.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0038272/world-bank-official-boundaries
Citation
World Bank. "World Bank Official Boundaries (GeoPackage)" [dataset]. https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0038272/world-bank-official-boundaries. Accessed December 2025.
Name
World Development Indicators
Note
Filenames: API_NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD_DS2_en_csv_v2_79.csv, API_NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD_DS2_en_csv_v2_1584.csv, API_SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS_DS2_en_csv_v2_51.csv, API_SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS_DS2_en_csv_v2_330.csv, API_SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS_DS2_en_csv_v2_608.csv. Indicators used: GDP, PPP (current international $), GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $), Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Urban population (% of total population).
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Citation
World Bank. "World Development Indicators" [dataset]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed November 2025.
Name
World Bank Country and Lending Groups
Note
Filename: CLASS.xlsx.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/site-content/CLASS.xlsx
Citation
"World Bank Country and Lending Groups" [dataset]. https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/site-content/CLASS.xlsx. Accessed November 2025.
Name
The CORESIDENCE Database: National and Subnational Data on Household and Living Arrangements Around the World, 1964-2021
Note
Filenames: A0_CORESIDENCE_NATIONAL_DATASET_2024.csv, A2_CORESIDENCE_SUBNATIONAL_HARMONIZED_DATASET_2024.csv, SUBNATIONAL_BOUNDARIES_CORESIDENCE_PROJECT.gpkg.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://zenodo.org/records/8142652
Citation
Esteve, A., Galeano, J., Turu, A., García-Román, J., Becca, F., Fang, H., Pohl, M. L. C., & Trias Prat, R. (2023). "The CORESIDENCE Database: National and Subnational Data on Household and Living Arrangements Around the World, 1964-2021" [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8142652. Accessed January 2026.
Name
Database on Household Size and Composition 2022
Note
Filename: data_raw\UN_Population_division\undesa_pd_2022_hh-size-composition.xlsx.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
Data URL
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/data/household-size-and-composition
Citation
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022. "Database on
Household Size and Composition 2022" [dataset]. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/data/household-size-and-composition. Accessed December 2025.
Name
Socioeconomic Projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Note
File location: data_raw\SSP. Data files: 1.1721734326790-ssp_basic_drivers_release_3.1_full.xlsx contains global, regional, and country-level projections of key socioeconomic drivers for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Release 3.1 (July 2024). These include population, human capital, GDP, and related basic socioeconomic projections produced by contributing modeling teams. 2. SSP-Urbanization-2024-review-phase-3.xlsx contains global, regional, and national urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Review Phase 3 (June 2024). Secondary citation: Jiang, Leiwen. (2024). Review Version of the Urbanization Projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Review Phase 3, June 2024. IIASA SSP Scenario Explorer.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
IIASA Public License adapted from Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at/license
Data URL
https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ssp/#/downloads
Citation
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and contributing modeling teams. (2024)."Socioeconomic Projections of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)" [dataset]. https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ssp. Accessed January 2026.
Name
Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (v2023.1)
Note
Filename: data_raw\GEM\GEM-GSHM_PGA-475y-rock_v2023.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
License URL
https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/global-seismic-hazard-map
Data URL
https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/global-seismic-hazard-map
Citation
Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. 2023. "Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (v2023.1)" [dataset]. https://www.globalquakemodel.org/product/global-seismic-hazard-map. Accessed January 2026.
Name
Global Unbreakable Model
Note
File location: data_raw/GEM. Filenames: hazus-gem_mapping.csv, gem_taxonomy_fields.json, gem-to-vulnerability_mapping_per_hazard.xlsx, building_class_to_vulenrability_mapping.csv, country_vulnerability_classes.csv. The author accessed these files from a GitHub repository (https://github.com/rmiddelanis). This repository is no longer active. However, these files are also included in the publicly available Reproducibility Package for Why Do Some Countries Build Safer? Economic Constraints, Disaster Learning, And The Two-Stage Housing Quality Ladder (https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/catalog/473/study-description). They are also included in this reproducibility package.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Modified BSD3
License URL
https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause
Data URL
https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/catalog/473/study-description
Citation
Middelanis, R., Jafino, B. A., Hill, R., Nguyen, M. C., Hallegatte, S. 2025. "Global Unbreakable Model" [dataset]. https://github.com/rmiddelanis/global-unbreakable-model/tree/main/data/raw/GEM_vulnerability. Accessed October 2025.
Name
Spatial raster dataset grids from 1975 to 2100 (GHS-WUP-POP)
Note
File location: data_raw\GHSL\. Dataset: GHS-WUP-POP R2025A – GHS-WUP population spatial raster dataset, derived from GHS-POP (R2023) and projected using the CRISP model, multitemporal (1975–2100). The paper uses data for years 2025. 2030, 20240, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, and 2100.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ghs_wup_pop_r2025a.php
Citation
Schiavina, Marcello; Freire, Sergio; Carioli, Alessandra; MacManus, Kytt; Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Claassens, Jip; Hilferink, Maarten; Dijkstra, Lewis. 2025. "Spatial raster dataset grids from 1975 to 2100 (GHS-WUP-POP)" [dataset]. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ghs_wup_pop_r2025a.php. Accessed January 2026.
Name
Global 1km-grid population projections for 2025-2100 consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3.2 national population projections, version 0.2
Note
File location: data_raw\WorldPop\.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://hub.worldpop.org/doi/10.5258/SOTON/WP00849
Citation
Bondarenko M., Tejedor-Garavito N., Priyatikanto R., Zhang W., Fang W., Nosatiuk B., Gaskell J., McKeen T., Noi E., Hilton J., Butterick J., Hawker L., Tatem A. J. "Global 1km-grid population projections for 2025-2100 consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3.2 national population projections, version 0.2" [dataset]. https://hub.worldpop.org/doi/10.5258/SOTON/WP00849. Accessed February 2026.
Name
STORM tropical cyclone wind speed return periods as global GeoTIFFs
Note
File location: data_raw\STORM\.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Zero (CC0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Data URL
https://zenodo.org/records/10931452
Citation
Russell, T. (2024). "STORM tropical cyclone wind speed return periods as global GeoTIFFs" [dataset]. https://zenodo.org/records/10931452. Accessed March 2026.
Name
Global Exposure Model (2026.0.0)
Note
This data is fetched programmatically by Notebook 2 (_2_GEM_subnational.ipynb) and is not stored in the package. The notebook retrieves residential exposure CSV files from the GEM Global Exposure Model repository (https://github.com/gem/global_exposure_model) that match the pattern Exposure_Res_*_Adm1.csv. The processed versions of these files are located in data_processed\GEM. Publication citation:
Yepes-Estrada, C., Calderon, A., Costa, C., Crowley, H., Dabbeek, J., Hoyos, M., Martins, L., Paul, N., Rao, A., Silva, V. (2023). Global Building Exposure Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment. Earthquake Spectra. doi:10.1177/87552930231194048.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
Data URL
https://github.com/gem/global_exposure_model
Citation
Yepes-Estrada, C., Baiguera, M., Calderon, A., Caruso, M., Costa, C., Gonzalez, D., Nafeh, A.M.B., Rao, A., Silva, V. (2026). "Global Exposure Model (2026.0.0)" [dataset]. https://github.com/gem/global_exposure_model. Accessed July 2026.
Name
NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)
Note
This data is fetched programmatically by Notebook 4.1 (_4_1_GEE_Collect_Heat_IndoorWGBT.ipynb) from the NASA/GDDP-CMIP6 dataset through Google Earth Engine and is not stored as raw source data in the package. The processed versions of these files are located in data_processed\GEE_heat. Secondary citation: Thrasher, B., Maurer, E. P., McKellar, C., & Duffy, P. B., 2012: Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3309-3314. doi:10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
NASA/GDDP-CMIP6 Terms of Use
License URL
https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/NASA_GDDP-CMIP6#terms-of-use
Data URL
https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/NASA_GDDP-CMIP6
Citation
NASA / Climate Analytics Group. "NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)" [dataset]. https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/NASA_GDDP-CMIP6. Accessed March 2026.
Name
Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps Version 2
Note
This data is fetched programmatically by Notebook 4.2 (_4_2_GEE_WRI_Aqueduct.ipynb) from the WRI Aqueduct dataset through Google Earth Engine and is not stored as raw source data in the package. The processed versions of these files are located in data_processed\GEE_flood.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
WRI Open Data Commitment
License URL
https://www.wri.org/data/open-data-commitment
Data URL
https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/WRI_Aqueduct_Flood_Hazard_Maps_V2
Citation
World Resources Institute. "Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps Version 2". [dataset]. https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/WRI_Aqueduct_Flood_Hazard_Maps_V2. Accessed March 2026.
Name
MOD44W.006 Terra Land Water Mask Derived From MODIS and SRTM Yearly Global 250m
Note
This data is fetched programmatically by Notebooks 4.1 (_4_1_GEE_Collect_Heat_IndoorWGBT.ipynb) and 4.2 (_4_2_GEE_WRI_Aqueduct.ipynb) through Google Earth Engine and is not stored as raw source data in the package. The processed outputs are saved in data_processed/GEE_heat and data_processed/GEE_flood.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
MODIS data Terms of Use
License URL
https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MOD44W#terms-of-use
Data URL
https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MOD44W#description
Citation
NASA LP DAAC at the USGS EROS Center. "MOD44W.006 Terra Land Water Mask Derived From MODIS and SRTM Yearly Global 250m" [dataset]. https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_006_MOD44W#description. Accessed March 2026.
Data statement
All data sources are publicly available but not all are included in the reproducibility package.
Description
Output
Type
Working Paper
Title
Housing Requirements, Hazard Exposure, And Resilience Costs: A Global Outlook To 2100
Authors
Yasuhiro Kawasoe
Description
Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Yasuhiro Kawasoe | World Bank | ykawasoe@worldbank.org |
Date of production
2026-08-17
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
Keywords
Housing Demand
Resilient Construction
Climate Change
Natural Hazard Exposure
Fiscal Capacity
Population Projections
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Yasuhiro Kawasoe | World Bank | ykawasoe@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2026-08-17
Document version
1