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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization

2026
Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_755
Author(s)
Erhan Artuc, Alessandro Barattieri, Isambert Leunga Noukwe, Aaditya Mattoo
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Sep 28, 2026
Last modified
Sep 28, 2026
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Three key developments, protectionism, aging, and automation, are affecting the global pattern of industrial production and trade. While these trends affect many countries, they are especially consequential for China, which currently dominates global manufacturing. Using a multi-country model fitted with global trade and robotization data, this paper shows that automation can mitigate the adverse effects of protection and aging on competitiveness, particularly in sectors with a high share of automatable tasks. The impact of a 10% decline in labor force in China would be offset by doubling of robot productivity in vehicles, but robot productivity would need to more than triple in computers.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_755
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_755.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization
    Date
    2026-09
    Dependencies
    R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    R
    Version
    4.6.1
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18.5 MP
    Name
    MATLAB
    Version
    2024a

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB
    • Software version: Stata 18.5 MP, Matlab 2024a, R 4.6.1
    Technology requirements

    Runtime: ~2 hours.
    Reproduction instructions

    The replication package is currently under a temporary embargo. The data and code required to reproduce the results are not yet publicly available but are expected to be released once the paper is accepted to a journal.

    Once the embargo is lifted and the package is published, a new user can reproduce the findings in the paper by following these steps

    1. Run S1_RUN_STATA do-file in Stata, after updating the working directory path at the top of the do-file.
    2. Run S2_RUN_MATLAB in MATLAB, after updating the working directory path.
    3. Run S3_RUN_STATA do-file in Stata, after updating the working directory path at the top of the do-file.
    4. Open the R project, restore the environment, and run S4_RUN_R.
      Run the scripts in the order given. The results will appear in the figures and tables folders.
      Note that the IFR robot data is restricted and is not included in the package. Before step 1, request the data from IFR and place it in the data_robots folder.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO)
    Note
    File locations: gross_data/_2010_SML.csv, gross_data/_2020_SML.csv. OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables, 2023 release. There are two versions of ICIO: regular ICIO and extended ICIO. The package uses the 2023 release (regular ICIO). The analysis uses data for the year 2020.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and will be included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC-BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html
    Data URL
    https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/inter-country-input-output-tables.html
    Citation
    OECD. 2023. "Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO)". OECD TiVA database. [dataset]. https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/inter-country-input-output-tables.html. Accessed March 2026.
    Name
    International Federation of Robotics (IFR) Data
    Note
    File location: robot_data.dta; raw IFR files are placed in the data_robots folder. Industrial robot data from the International Federation of Robotics, World Robotics 2025. Replicators must obtain the IFR data directly from IFR (private access only) and place it in the data_robots folder before running the package. a list of the variables used are included in variable_inventory.csv. To convert the robot stock into robots per 1,000 workers, the package uses employment data by industry from the OECD Trade in Employment (TiM) 2023 edition (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/).
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://ifr.org/
    Citation
    International Federation of Robotics. (2025). World Robotics 2025 – Industrial Robots (tech. rep.) [dataset]. Unpublished data. IFR Statistical Department. Frankfurt, Germany.
    Name
    World Population Prospects 2024
    Note
    File locations: gross_data/UN_PPP2024_Output_Pop20-64.xlsx, popshock35.csv. Population Division of the United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024, population aged 20-64. The package uses the population projection for 2035.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and will be included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
    Data URL
    https://population.un.org/wpp/
    Citation
    United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024. [dataset]. https://population.un.org/wpp/. Accessed July 2026.
    Name
    World Development Indicators (WDI): GDP and Population Data
    Note
    File locations: gross_data/data_wdi.xlsx, gross_data/gdp_pc2.csv. WDI does not provide data for Taiwan, China. Taiwan, China data (real GDP per capita, PPP) is taken from https://www.worldeconomics.com/GrossDomesticProduct/Real-GDP-Per-Capita-PPP/Taiwan.aspx. File location: gross_data/GDP_PC_TWN.xls.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and will be included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC-BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank, 2026. World Development Indicators. [dataset]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed February 2026.
    Data statement

    This reproducibility package relies on two types of data: open data, which is publicly available from the original sources, and restricted data, which is available only from the data owners. In addition, the authors have embargoed the whole package, including the open data files. The embargo is temporary and does not change the status of the restricted data, which remains available only from the data owners after the embargo ends. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Can The Flying Geese Fly Again? Automation And The Pattern Of Industrialization
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 11468
    URL
    http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099410209282647426
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Erhan Artuc World Bank eartuc@worldbank.org
    Alessandro Barattieri World Bank abarattieri@worldbank.org
    Isambert Leunga Noukwe University of Sherbrooke Isambert.Leunga.Noukwe@USherbrooke.ca
    Aaditya Mattoo World Bank amattoo@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2026-09-23

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Robots International Trade Aging
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    F1 Trade F Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J23 Labor Demand J2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J24 Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity J2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O3 Innovation • Research and Development • Technological Change • Intellectual Property Rights O Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O4 Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity O Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Erhan Artuc World Bank eartuc@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-09-23
    Document version

    1
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