Reproducibility package for The Effects of Global Uncertainty on Firms in Emerging and Developing Economies: Quantifying the Trade and Financial Channels
2026
Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_786
Author(s)
Ergys Islamaj, Haiqin Liu, Jongrim Ha, Aaditya Mattoo
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Nov 05, 2026
Last modified
Nov 09, 2026
Page views
27
Downloads
11
Overview
Abstract
We study how global uncertainty affects firms in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and how financial constraints and international trade linkages shape its transmission. We combine equity returns and financial accounts of publicly listed firms with country–sector input–output data for 2000–24. Heightened global uncertainty is associated with lower firm valuations, weaker sales, and declining employment. Greater exposure to foreign customers amplifies declines in sales and employment, while reliance on imported inputs and higher leverage are associated with sharper investment contractions. Complementary evidence from a Bayesian panel structural vector autoregression shows that global economic policy and financial uncertainty shocks reduce aggregate output, investment, and consumption in EMDEs. These findings connect firm-level adjustment to macroeconomic outcomes and identify financial vulnerability and international production linkages as key channels through which global uncertainty is transmitted to EMDEs.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
File name
RR_WLD_2026_786
Zip package
RR_WLD_2026_786.zip
Title
Reproducibility package for The Effects of Global Uncertainty on Firms in Emerging and Developing Economies: Quantifying the Trade and Financial Channels
Date
2026-11
Dependencies
Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
Instructions
See README in reproducibility package.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Technology environment
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8562Y+ (2 processors)
• Memory available: 128 GB
• Software version: Stata 19.5 MP; MATLAB R2024b
Technology requirements
Runtime ~ 30 minutes (Stata ~ 29 minutes; MATLAB ~ 1-2 minutes).
Reproduction instructions
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure access to data: obtain the licensed LSEG Datastream and Worldscope data, and the Haver Analytics data (see the Datasets section). Rebuild
data/ds_daily.dtaanddata/ws_EMDE.dtawithcode/A_collect_firm_data.do, and placePSVAR/rawdata/EMDE_q_m.xlsxandPSVAR/rawdata/SP_d.dta as listed indata_hash_report.csv`. - Rebuild the panel SVAR inputs and results, which are not included: run
PSVAR/create_EMDE_panel.do(orPSVAR/create_EMDE_panel.R), thenPSVAR/run_PSVAR.mwith BEAR Toolbox 5 to recreatePSVAR/Lag5andPSVAR/Lag8. - Open the
maindo-file, set the project root on line 16, and run it in Stata. - Run
main.min MATLAB from the project root. It produces Figure 3, Table 6, Figure A1, and Table A4.
Because some of the data is limited-access, the exhibits generated by the replicators are included in the package (table/, figure/, and PSVAR/Figures/) so that interested users can review them against the paper.
Data
Datasets
Name
Datastream Equities, daily stock prices (LSEG)
Note
Filename: data/ds_daily.dta. Firm-day dataset built by the authors from LSEG Datastream daily closing prices in US dollars for listed firms in emerging market and developing economies, 2000-2024, retrieved through Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) in December 2024. It contains annualized daily log returns and 90-day rolling return volatility, winsorized at the 1st and 99th percentiles. Used for Tables 1, 2 and A2. The construction from the raw country-level Datastream extracts is documented in code/A_collect_firm_data.do; the raw extracts are not included. A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at hliu10@worldbank.org.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom
Data URL
https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics
Citation
LSEG Data & Analytics. (2024). Datastream Equities [dataset]. Licensed data accessed through Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) under an institutional subscription. https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics
Name
Worldscope Fundamentals, quarterly and annual company financial statements (LSEG)
Note
Filename: data/ws_EMDE.dta. Firm-quarter panel built by the authors from LSEG Worldscope quarterly and annual items (ITEM1001, 2501, 2999, 3051, 3255, 4601, 7011, 7021, 7210, 18198, 18272, 18273), 2000-2024, retrieved through WRDS in December 2024. It contains sales intensity, investment ratio, employment, size, age, leverage, Tobin's Q and external finance dependence for firms in 74 emerging market and developing economies. Used for Tables 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, A1, A3 and A4 and Figure 2. The cleaning of the raw Worldscope extracts is documented in code/A_collect_firm_data.do; the raw extracts are not included. A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom
Data URL
https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics
Citation
LSEG Data & Analytics. (2024). Worldscope Fundamentals [dataset]. Licensed data accessed through Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) under an institutional subscription. https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics
Name
Haver Analytics Emerging Markets database (EMERGE)
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/EMDE_q_m.xlsx. Quarterly real GDP, final consumption and gross fixed capital formation for emerging market and developing economies from the Haver Analytics EMERGE database, accessed in January 2026. The Haver series codes (e.g. N186NGPC@EMERGE) are listed as variable names in variable_inventory.csv. Used to build the country-quarter panel for the Bayesian panel SVAR (Figure 3, Table 6, Figure A1, Table A4). A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom
Data URL
https://www.haver.com/
Citation
Haver Analytics. (2026). Emerging Markets Database (EMERGE) [dataset]. Licensed data accessed under an institutional subscription. https://www.haver.com/
Name
Haver Analytics daily stock price indices
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/SP_d.dta. Daily national stock price indices from Haver Analytics, accessed in January 2026, averaged to quarterly frequency for the Bayesian panel SVAR. A list of variables is provided in variable_inventory.csv, and the file hash is in data_hash_report.csv.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom
Data URL
https://www.haver.com/
Citation
Haver Analytics. (2026). Daily stock price indices [dataset]. Licensed data accessed under an institutional subscription. https://www.haver.com/
Name
BACI: International Trade Database at the Product Level, HS 1996 (CEPII)
Note
Filename: data/CEPII-BACI/HS96/BACI_HS96_Y2009_V202501.csv to BACI_HS96_Y2023_V202501.csv; data/CEPII-BACI/HS96/country_codes_V202501.csv; data/CEPII-BACI/HS96/product_codes_HS96_V202501.csv; data/CEPII-BACI/HS96/Readme.txt; data/CEPII-BACI/country_codes_V202401.csv; data/CEPII-BACI/country_codes_V202401.dta; data/ALLexports_isic4d_partner.dta (derived). Bilateral trade flows by HS 1996 product, version 202501, accessed in January 2026. code/B_Exports_HS_ISIC.do aggregates them to ISIC Rev. 4 exporter-partner flows, used for the import and export shares (InDeg, OutDeg) in Tables 6 and A4.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Etalab Open Licence 2.0
License URL
https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/licence-ouverte-open-licence/
Data URL
https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37
Citation
Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010). BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level, HS 1996, version 202501 [dataset]. CEPII. https://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37
Name
Classification Correspondence Tables (HS 1996, CPC, ISIC Rev. 4)
Note
Filename: data/CEPII-BACI/CPCv10-HS1996.txt; data/CEPII-BACI/CPCv10_CPCv11_full.txt; data/CEPII-BACI/CPCv11_CPCv2.txt; data/CEPII-BACI/ISIC4-CPC2.txt. Correspondences between HS 1996, Central Product Classification (CPC) versions 1.0, 1.1 and 2, and ISIC Rev. 4, accessed in January 2026. Used in code/B_Exports_HS_ISIC.do to map BACI products to ISIC Rev. 4.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Public
Data URL
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/classifications/Econ
Citation
United Nations Statistics Division. (2026). Classification Correspondence Tables (HS 1996, CPC, ISIC Rev. 4) [dataset]. United Nations. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/classifications/Econ
Name
Multiregional Input-Output Tables
Note
Filename: data/MRIO/ADB MRIO 2000, at constant 2010 prices.xlsx; data/MRIO/ADB MRIO 2007, at constant 2010 prices.xlsx to data/MRIO/ADB MRIO 2023, at constant 2010 prices.xlsx; data/InOutDegree.dta (derived). Multiregional input-output tables for 62 economies at constant 2010 prices, accessed on January 12, 2026. code/B_MRIOT.m builds the country-sector upstream (InDegree) and downstream (OutDegree) exposure measures used in Table 4.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
Data URL
https://kidb.adb.org/globalization/constant, https://kidb.adb.org/download/mrio-file/179
Citation
Asian Development Bank. (2026). Multiregional Input-Output Tables at constant 2010 prices [dataset]. ADB Key Indicators Database. https://kidb.adb.org/globalization/constant
Name
Multiregional Input-Output sector correspondence
Note
Filename: data/MRIO/Correspondence_ISIC4-ISIC31-MRIO.xlsx; data/crosswalk_sic4_MRIO.dta; data/crosswalk_sic4_3digit_MRIO.dta; data/crosswalk_sic4_2digit_MRIO.dta; data/crosswalk_sic31_MRIO.dta; data/crosswalk_sic31_3digit_MRIO.dta; data/crosswalk_sic31_2digit_MRIO.dta (derived). Correspondence published by ADB, accessed in January 2026. code/B_create_sic_MRIO_crosswalk.do builds the crosswalks from firm industry codes to MRIO sectors at 4, 3 and 2 digits, used in Table 4.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
Data URL
https://kidb.adb.org/download/mrio-file/179
Citation
Asian Development Bank. (2026). Multiregional Input-Output sector correspondence [dataset]. ADB Key Indicators Database. https://kidb.adb.org/download/mrio-file/179
Name
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Effective Exchange Rates
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/WS_EER_csv_row.csv. Monthly nominal broad effective exchange rates from the BIS bulk download, accessed in January 2026. Averaged to quarterly frequency for the country-quarter panel used in the Bayesian panel SVAR.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
BIS Terms and Conditions
License URL
https://www.bis.org/terms_conditions.htm
Data URL
https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
Citation
Bank for International Settlements. (2026). Effective Exchange Rates [dataset]. BIS Data Portal. https://data.bis.org/topics/EER
Name
Global Database of Inflation
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/hcpi_q.dta. Quarterly headline consumer price index from the World Bank Prospects Group's Global Database of Inflation (Ha, Kose and Ohnsorge 2023), April 2025 version, accessed in January 2026. Used in the country-quarter panel for the Bayesian panel SVAR.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions
Data URL
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/inflation-database
Citation
Ha, J., Kose, M. A. and Ohnsorge, F. (2025). Global Database of Inflation, April 2025 version [dataset]. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/inflation-database
Name
Index of Global Real Economic Activity (IGREA)
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/IGREA.xlsx. Quarterly Index of Global Real Economic Activity (Kilian 2009, 2019), downloaded from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, in January 2026. Used as the global activity variable in the Bayesian panel SVAR.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Public
License URL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/
Data URL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IGREA
Citation
Kilian, L. (2026). Index of Global Real Economic Activity [IGREA] [dataset]. FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IGREA
Name
Global Debt Database
Note
Filename: data/GlobalDebtDatabase_Sep25.dta. Private, household, corporate and public debt as a share of GDP, September 2025 vintage, accessed in January 2026. The country average of private debt (pvd_all) over 2000-2024 is used as a country characteristic in Tables 6 and A4.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
IMF Copyright and Usage
License URL
https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm
Data URL
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD
Citation
International Monetary Fund. (2025). Global Debt Database, September 2025 [dataset]. IMF. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD
Name
Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/All_Measures.xlsx (column GEPU); data/u_z_scored_lag_q.dta (derived). Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index, PPP-adjusted GDP weights (Baker, Bloom and Davis 2016), accessed on January 12, 2026. code/A_build_uncertainty_zscore.do standardizes it over 2000Q1-2024Q4; it is the main uncertainty measure in all exhibits.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://www.policyuncertainty.com/global_monthly.html
Citation
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N. and Davis, S. J. (2026). Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index [dataset]. Economic Policy Uncertainty. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/Global_Policy_Uncertainty_Data.xlsx
Name
World Uncertainty Index
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/All_Measures.xlsx (column WUI); data/u_z_scored_lag_q.dta (derived). GDP-weighted global World Uncertainty Index (Ahir, Bloom and Furceri 2022), accessed in January 2026. The index is revised over time, so later releases may differ slightly. Standardized by code/A_build_uncertainty_zscore.do and used as an alternative uncertainty measure in all exhibits.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Public
Data URL
https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/
Citation
Ahir, H., Bloom, N. and Furceri, D. (2026). World Uncertainty Index [dataset]. https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/
Name
Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/All_Measures.xlsx (column GTPU); data/u_z_scored_lag_q.dta (derived). Quarterly Trade Policy Uncertainty index (Caldara, Iacoviello, Molligo, Prestipino and Raffo 2020), accessed in January 2026. Standardized by code/A_build_uncertainty_zscore.do and used as an alternative uncertainty measure in all exhibits.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm
Citation
Caldara, D., Iacoviello, M., Molligo, P., Prestipino, A. and Raffo, A. (2026). Trade Policy Uncertainty Index [dataset]. https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/tpu.htm
Name
Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX)
Note
Filename: PSVAR/rawdata/All_Measures.xlsx (column VIX); data/u_z_scored_lag_q.dta (derived). CBOE Volatility Index downloaded from FRED at quarterly frequency (average), accessed in January 2026. Standardized by code/A_build_uncertainty_zscore.do and used as the financial uncertainty measure in all exhibits.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Public
License URL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/
Data URL
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS
Citation
Chicago Board Options Exchange. (2026). CBOE Volatility Index: VIX [VIXCLS] [dataset]. FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS
Name
Country Code and country Classification Crosswalks
Note
Filename: data/ISOCode_Full.dta; data/MRIOctycode_list.dta; PSVAR/rawdata/code_iso_crosswalk.xlsx. Crosswalks prepared by the authors. data/ISOCode_Full.dta links IMF country codes, ISO2 and ISO3 codes, built from International Financial Statistics (IMF) country lists accessed in December 2023, with the advanced/emerging economy classification of https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099737510042356177. data/MRIOctycode_list.dta maps ADB MRIO country codes to ISO3, and PSVAR/rawdata/code_iso_crosswalk.xlsx maps Haver country codes to ISO3.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom License
Citation
Authors' compilation, World Bank. (2026). Country code and country classification crosswalks [dataset].
Data statement
The reproducibility package relies on two types of data: open and limited-access data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.
Description
Output
Type
Working Paper
Title
The Effects of Global Uncertainty on Firms in Emerging and Developing Economies: Quantifying the Trade and Financial Channels
Description
Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Ergys Islamaj | World Bank Group | eislamaj@worldbankgroup.org |
| Haiqin Liu | World Bank Group | hliu10@worldbank.org |
| Jongrim Ha | World Bank Group | jongrimha@worldbank.org |
| Aaditya Mattoo | World Bank Group | amattoo@worldbankgroup.org |
Date of production
2026-11-04
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
Keywords
Uncertainty
Firm Behavior
Production Networks
Financial Constraints
EMDEs
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Ergys Islamaj | World Bank Group | eislamaj@worldbankgroup.org |
| Reproducibility World Bank Group | World Bank Group | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2026-11-04
Document version
1