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Reproducibility package for Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment

2026
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Reference ID
RR_SSA_2026_799
Author(s)
Steven Michael Pennings, Arthur Galego Mendes, Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Nov 06, 2026
Last modified
Nov 10, 2026
Page views
47
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    This paper studies the local and aggregate effects of cash transfers in developing countries, and how both change as the cash transfer program scales up. The paper features a two-region New Keynesian small open economy model and which is calibrated to rich pre-treatment microdata from an ongoing cash transfer experiment in Malawi. The model implies a local multiplier on temporary transfers of about one, which depends on price stickiness, the share of liquidity-constrained households, and home bias in consumption. Spillovers to the rest of the country are negative under Malawi’s restricted international capital mobility and parallel exchange rate regimes, as cash transfers appreciate the real exchange rate and reduce exports. Consequently, the aggregate multiplier is less than the local multiplier. As the program scales up, the local multiplier converges toward the aggregate multiplier, so a scaled-up program may have smaller multipliers than micro-level estimates suggest. However, with unrestricted capital mobility, spillovers can be positive, especially under a fixed exchange rate. These results highlight the importance of the macroeconomic policy environment for aggregate multipliers and the effects of scaled-up transfer programs.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_SSA_2026_799
    Zip package
    RR_SSA_2026_799.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment
    Date
    2026-11
    Dependencies
    No user-written Stata packages are required.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    MATLAB
    Version
    R2024b
    Name
    Dynare
    Version
    5.4
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18.0 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Platinum 8562Y+ (2 processors)
    Memory available: 128 GB
    Software version: MATLAB R2024b with Dynare 5.4; Stata 18.0 MP
    Technology requirements

    Runtime ~ 3 minutes (MATLAB/Dynare part ~2.5 minutes; Stata part under 1 minute).
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings:

    1. Secure data access for the datasets not included in the package. See more details in the README and Data section of this entry.
    2. MATLAB (model exhibits): open Master.m and edit line 22 (root_dir, path to this package's folder) and line 23 (DYNARE_PATH, path to your Dynare installation's MATLAB folder), and run.
    3. Stata (appendix Table A1, Figure B2): open Master.do and edit line 10 (global root_dir, path to this package's folder). Run the script.

    The restricted data not included in the folder is only needed to reproduce Appendix Table A1 and the Section 2.2 treated-region hand-to-mouth and price-stickiness calibrations. These were verified by the replicators during a virtual verification, and the results are included in the package in the folder virtual verification.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Global Findex Database 2025, country-level data
    Note
    Filename: RawData/GlobalFindexDatabase2025.xlsx. World Bank Global Findex Database 2025 country-level file (Data sheet). Accessed 21 October 2026. Used for the Section 2.2 control-region hand-to-mouth share (STATA/Calibration_handtomouth_share_control_region.do).
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets
    Data URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex/download-data
    Citation
    World Bank. (2025). Global Findex Database 2025 [dataset]. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/globalfindex/Data
    Name
    World Development Indicators
    Note
    Filename: RawData/WDI_inflation.xls. World Bank World Development Indicators, indicators FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG (inflation, consumer prices, annual %) and NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG (inflation, GDP deflator, annual %), Malawi, accessed 21 March 2026. Used to produce Figure B7 (Figures/FigureB7.xlsx).
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. (2026). World Development Indicators [dataset]. World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Name
    Malawi Economic Explorer, exchange rates
    Note
    Filename: RawData/malawi_exchange_rates_wfp.csv. Official and parallel Malawi kwacha/USD exchange rates, WFP DataViz Economic Explorer, accessed 21 June 2026. Used in Figure 1 and the local-multiplier model calibration.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Public
    Data URL
    https://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/southern-africa/malawi/economic/exchange-rates
    Citation
    World Food Programme. (2026). Malawi Economic Explorer, exchange rates [dataset]. WFP DataViz. https://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/southern-africa/malawi/economic/exchange-rates
    Name
    Global Findex 2017 microdata
    Note
    Filename: RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/micro_world.dta. World Bank Global Findex 2017 household-level microdata, World Bank Microdata Library catalog 3324. Free of charge but requires a Microdata Library login, so it is not redistributed in the published package. Downloaded 19 April 2026. Used for the hand-to-mouth share by income quintile (Figure B2, STATA/FigureB2.do). The reviewer independently downloaded this file from the Microdata Library (not received from the authors) and reproduced Figure B2 from it. The file hash is in data_hash_report.csv. To obtain the Global Findex 2017 microdata (`micro_world.dta`), register for a free World Bank Microdata Library account and download catalog 3324, then place the file in RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution, and is not included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Public Use Files
    License URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/terms-of-use
    Data URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3324
    Citation
    World Bank. (2017). Global Findex 2017 microdata [dataset]. World Bank Microdata Library, catalog 3324. https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/3324
    Name
    Baseline household (Phases I-II) and Enterprise surveys, Chiradzulu, Malawi
    Note
    Filenames: RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/ENT_Market_BL_Phase_1/enterprise_baseline_data.dta; RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/ENT_Market_BL_Phase_1/enterprise_baseline_data_13_03_2026.dta; RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/ENT_Market_BL_Phase_1/ent_baseline_codebook.csv; RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_1/2026_04_27_hh_baseline_data.dta; RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_1/2026_04_27_hh_baseline_codebook.csv; RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_2/hh_baseline_phase2_2026_04_20.dta; RawData/RESTRICTED_DATA/HH_BL_Survey_Phase_2/P2_hh_baseline_codebook.csv. All part of the same study, \"The General Equilibrium Effects of Large Universal Cash Transfers in Malawi\" (Egger, Dennis et al. 2026, AEA RCT Registry AEARCTR-0015292): the baseline enterprise and market survey (3,943 surveys covering all 79 Phase I and II markets in Chiradzulu district) and the Phase I (3,275 households, southern 4 TAs of Chiradzulu) and Phase II household baseline surveys. To request access, contact the study team (Dennis Egger, University of Oxford, dennis.egger@economics.ox.ac.uk; John Walker, University of Oxford, john.walker@economics.ox.ac.uk); access is at the study team's discretion and may require a data use agreement. For more details on the data, interested users can reach out to one of the authors at spennings@worldbank.org. Without these data, only Table A1 cannot be reproduced; it was verified through virtual verification.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Confidential
    Citation
    Egger, Dennis, et al. (2026). The General Equilibrium Effects of Large Universal Cash Transfers in Malawi: enterprise and market baseline survey [dataset]. Unpublished data. AEA RCT Registry AEARCTR-0015292. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15292-2.0
    Data statement

    The reproducibility package relies on 3 types of data: open, accessible, and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Cash Transfers in Developing Countries: Local Multipliers, Aggregate Effects, and External Adjustment
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Steven Michael Pennings World Bank Group spennings@worldbank.org
    Arthur Galego Mendes World Bank Group agalegomendes@worldbank.org
    Thuy Lan Nguyen Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco lan.nguyen@sf.frb.org
    Wataru Miyamoto University of Hong Kong wataru.miyamoto1@gmail.com
    Date of production

    2026-11-05

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Sub-Saharan Africa SSA
    Malawi MWI
    Keywords
    Cash Transfers Fiscal Multipliers Local Multipliers Parallel Exchange Rate External Adjustment
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    E62 Fiscal Policy • Modern Monetary Theory E6 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F31 Foreign Exchange F3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F41 Open Economy Macroeconomics F4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    I38 Government Policy • Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs I3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Steven Michael Pennings World Bank Group spennings@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility World Bank Group World Bank Group reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-11-05
    Document version

    1
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