Reproducibility package for Ensuring an equal start for all Pakistani children: What will it cost?

Quality early childhood education (ECE) improves child development outcomes and has long-term implications for school readiness, workforce participation and economic growth. Despite this, in Pakistan, the net enrolment rate of children aged 3-5 in ECE was only 31 percent in 2022. This paper estimates the cost of expanding access to ECE using an adapted version of the ECE Accelerator Costing and Simulation model. Using available administrative data, this paper presents cost estimates for three packages: (i) a business-as-usual package, (ii) a core service delivery package and (iii) an augmented service delivery package. It considers how these costs might vary using alternate delivery mechanisms such as community construction and vouchers. To ensure 100 percent net enrolment in ECE by 2035, Pakistan must increase the amount of the education budget spent on ECE from the existing allocation of 5.3 percent to 10.4 percent by 2035. This means increasing the ECE budget from PKR 71 billion (US$ 0.3 billion) in 2022 to PKR 418 billion (US$ 1.85 billion) in 2035, suggesting an average annual increase of 14 percent. Using alternate delivery mechanisms such as community construction and vouchers, the required budget can be reduced to PKR 311 billion (US$ 1.37 billion) in 2035.