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PRWP

Reproducibility package for A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis

2024
Get Reproducibility Package
Reference ID
RR_YEM_2024_139
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/27kd-rz96
Author(s)
Steve Penson, Mathijs Lomme , Bo Pieter Johannes Andree, Zacharey Austin Carmichael , Alemu Manni, Sudeep Shrestha
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Jun 27, 2024
Last modified
May 15, 2025
  • Project Description
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation
  • Overview

    Abstract

    The Republic of Yemen is enduring the world's most severe protracted humanitarian crisis, compounded by conflict, economic collapse, and natural disasters. Current food insecurity assessments rely on expert evaluation of evidence with limited temporal frequency and foresight. This paper introduces a data-driven methodology for the early detection and diagnosis of food security emergencies. The approach optimizes for simplicity and transparency, and pairs quantitative indicators with data-driven optimal thresholds to generate early warnings of impending food security emergencies. Historical validation demonstrates that warnings can be reliably issued before sharp deterioration in food security occurs, using only a few critical indicators that capture inflation, conflict, and agricultural productivity shocks. These indicators signal deterioration most accurately at five months of lead time. The paper concludes that simple data-driven approaches show a strong capability to generate reliable food security warnings in Yemen, highlighting their potential to complement existing assessments and enhance lead time for effective intervention.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Readme Get Reproducibility Package
    Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/159/download/436/README.pdf
    Reproducibility package (code and partial data) for A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis
    Title
    Reproducibility package (code and partial data) for A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis
    Dependencies
    Python: 61 dependencies are used. They are listed with their corresponding version in the file "requirements.txt" of the reproducibility package.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Python
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.10
    Power BI
    Name
    Power BI
    Version
    2.103.881.0 64-bit (March 2022)

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 @ 2.60GHz 1.50 GHz
    • Memory available: 15.7 GB
    • Software version:
    – Python 3.10
    – Power BI 2.103.881.0 64-bit (March 2022

    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 3 hours

    Reproduction instructions

    Users need to download data from the dataset "Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)", the Yemen Baseline Assessment and Rapid Displacement Indicators of the IOM, gain access to the dataset "High Resolution Population Density Maps from Facebook for Yemen", and recreate the input file "yemen_adm2_population.csv" to be able to run the code. Instructions for all of these are included in the README of the reproducibility package.

    Data

    Datasets
    FEWS NET Food Security data (2024)
    Name
    FEWS NET Food Security data (2024)
    Note
    Source: FEWS NET. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/FEWS February 2024 Update TrueBoundaries_04-19-24.csv". Data was accessed in April 2024.
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
    Data URL
    https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0064614
    Yemen: Acute Food Insecurity Country Data
    Name
    Yemen: Acute Food Insecurity Country Data
    Note
    Source: The IPC Acute Food Insecurity (IPC AFI) classification. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/ipc_district_2018-2023.csv". Data was accessed in July 2023. The file used for the reproducibility package was manually collapsed by district and groups of months (in the column "Analysis Period") from the file "ipc_yem_area_wide.csv", which is available for download in the data URL.
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://data.humdata.org/dataset/b70c2734-2339-4a4d-a69d-fa2bd3225156
    FAO Yemen Agricultural Calendar (2023)
    Name
    FAO Yemen Agricultural Calendar (2023)
    Note
    Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/AgricultualCalendar_Yemen_V2.xlsx". Data was received from Alemu Manni from FAO (Alemu.Manni@fao.org) in July 2023.
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package
    Rainfall and SPI data
    Name
    Rainfall and SPI data
    Note
    Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/dump_ye_rainfall_and_spi_data.csv". Data was received from Alemu Manni from FAO (Alemu.Manni@fao.org) in July 2023.
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package
    Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
    Name
    Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
    Note
    Source: ACLED. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/original_acled_conflict.csv". The filename used contains conflict events for Yemen during January 2015 until July 2023. Data was accessed in July 2023.
    Access policy
    Raw ACLED data cannot be redistributed. Replicators must review the terms of use in the license URL and download the data in the data URL. The dataset is updated weekly and it's possible that data points will not be exactly the same as used by the authors.
    License URL
    https://acleddata.com/terms-of-use/
    Data URL
    https://acleddata.com
    Monthly food price estimates by product and market
    Name
    Monthly food price estimates by product and market
    Note
    Variable used: food prices, only for Yemen. Data was received over email from the dataset authors on July 2023 along with the datasets Monthly energy price estimates by product and market and Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market in a wide format by day and market. The dataset can be accessed through the dataset API URL: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/api/tables/data/fcv/wld_2021_rtfp_v02_m or in the data URL below. Filename: Located at: "data/preparing master dataset/world_bank_market_prices.csv".
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Open data access
    License URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/terms-of-use
    Data URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/4483
    Monthly energy price estimates by product and market
    Name
    Monthly energy price estimates by product and market
    Note
    Variable used: fuel prices, only for Yemen. Data was received over email from the dataset authors on July 2023 along with the datasets Monthly food price estimates by product and market and Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market in a wide format by day and market. The dataset can be accessed through the dataset API URL: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/api/tables/data/FCV/WLD_2023_RTEP_v01_M or in the data URL below. Filename: Located at: "data/preparing master dataset/world_bank_market_prices.csv".
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Open data access
    License URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/terms-of-use
    Data URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/6134
    Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market
    Name
    Monthly currency exchange rate estimates by market
    Note
    Variable used: exchange rate, only for Yemen. Data was received over email from the dataset authors on July 2023 along with the datasets Monthly energy price estimates by product and market and Monthly food price estimates by product and market in a wide format by day and market. The dataset can be accessed through the dataset API URL: https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/api/tables/data/FCV/WLD_2023_RTFX_v01_M or in the data URL below. Filename: Located at: "data/preparing master dataset/world_bank_market_prices.csv".
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Open data access
    License URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/terms-of-use
    Data URL
    https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/6160
    Telegram Exchange Rate from the Yemen Economic Tracking Initiative
    Name
    Telegram Exchange Rate from the Yemen Economic Tracking Initiative
    Note
    Data was accessed on July 2023 with the API URL call: https://yemen.yeti.acaps.org/api/telegram_exchange_rates/?format=csv+%28non-paginated%29. Data file: "data/preparing master dataset/api_telegram_exchange_rates.csv".
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://yemen.yeti.acaps.org/
    Yemen Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at Subnational level
    Name
    Yemen Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) at Subnational level
    Note
    Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) & WFP. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/yem-ndvi-adm2-full.csv". Data was accessed in July 2023.
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://data.humdata.org/dataset/7907439a-0138-4b8e-a4cf-4f0233e0d694/resource/5a30f36a-aa4c-4261-a24b-22bda7639e4c/
    Yemen Rainfall Indicators at Subnational Level
    Name
    Yemen Rainfall Indicators at Subnational Level
    Note
    Source: WFP. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/yem-rainfall-adm2-full.csv". Data was accessed in July 2023.
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://data.humdata.org/dataset/902bd76c-3f3c-42ad-8547-f9c31deb7937/resource/8ebd5130-715e-4bc9-920c-773d461b0754
    Yemen - Baseline Assessment Round 37 (IOM)
    Name
    Yemen - Baseline Assessment Round 37 (IOM)
    Note
    Data file: "iom/DTM_YEMEN_Round_37_November_2018.xlsx". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/datasets/DTM_YEMEN_Round_37_November_2018.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.
    License URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products
    Data URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/datasets/yemen-baseline-assessment-round-37
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (25 June - 01 July 2023) (IOM)
    Name
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (25 June - 01 July 2023) (IOM)
    Note
    Data file: "iom/20230704_RDT Dataset- 25 June 2023 - 01 July 2023 External District Level.xlsx". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/datasets/20230704_RDT%20Dataset-%2025%20June%202023%20-%2001%20July%202023%20External%20District%20Level.xlsx
    Access policy
    Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.
    License URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products
    Data URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/datasets/yemen-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-25-june-01-july-2023
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (25 - 31 December 2022) (IOM)
    Name
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (25 - 31 December 2022) (IOM)
    Note
    Data file: "iom/20230102_RDT Dataset- 25 December 2022 - 31 December 2022 External District Level.xlsx". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/datasets/20230102_RDT%20Dataset-%2025%20December%202022%20-%2031%20December%202022%20External%20District%20Level.xlsx
    Access policy
    Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.
    License URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products
    Data URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/datasets/yemen-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-25-31-december-2022
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (02 - 08 January 2022) (IOM)
    Name
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (02 - 08 January 2022) (IOM)
    Note
    Data file: "iom/20220109_RDT_Weekly Update- 02 January 2022 - 09 January 2022 External District Level.xlsx". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/datasets/20220109_RDT_Weekly%20Update-%2002%20January%202022%20-%2009%20January%202022%20External%20District%20Level.xlsx
    Access policy
    Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.
    License URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products
    Data URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/datasets/yemen-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-02-08-january-2022
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 January - 05 December 2020) (IOM)
    Name
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 January - 05 December 2020) (IOM)
    Note
    Data file: "iom/Yemen - Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 January - 05 Dec 2020).xlsx". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/datasets/Yemen%20-%20Rapid%20Displacement%20Tracking%20Dataset%20%2801%20January%20-%2005%20Dec%202020%29.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.
    License URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products
    Data URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/datasets/yemen-%E2%80%94-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-01-january-05-december-2020
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 Jan to 30 Nov 2019) (IOM)
    Name
    Yemen — Rapid Displacement Tracking Dataset (01 Jan to 30 Nov 2019) (IOM)
    Note
    Data file: "iom/DTM Yemen_ Rapid Displacement Tracking (RDT) Dataset _01 Jan to 30 Nov 2019.xlsx". Data was accessed in July 2023. Data can be downloaded directly in the URL: https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/datasets/DTM%20Yemen_%20Rapid%20Displacement%20Tracking%20%28RDT%29%20Dataset%20_01%20Jan%20to%2030%20Nov%202019.xlsx
    Access policy
    Users must download the data directly from the Data URL provided below.
    License URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/terms-conditions-use-and-privacy-policy-dtm-website-and-information-products
    Data URL
    https://dtm.iom.int/datasets/yemen-%E2%80%94-rapid-displacement-tracking-dataset-01-jan-02-nov-2019
    Yemen Agriculture Zone by Level-2 Administrative Area
    Name
    Yemen Agriculture Zone by Level-2 Administrative Area
    Note
    Data was received from Alemu Manni from FAO (Alemu.Manni@fao.org) in July 2023. Filename: "data/preparing master dataset/lookupagri_zone_type.csv".
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package
    Yemen - Subnational Administrative Boundaries
    Name
    Yemen - Subnational Administrative Boundaries
    Note
    Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Data was accessed in May 2023. Geographic data from this dataset (“yem_adm_govyem_cso_ochayemen_20191002_GPKG.zip”, available for download in the data URL) was manually merged with other datasets of the project to produce the files "lookup/acled_pcodes.csv", "lookup/adm2_correction-Grid view.csv", "lookup/ipc_pcodes.csv", and "lookup/yemen_pcodes.csv". This data was also manually processed in QGIS to produce datasets with neighboring areas in the files "lookup/neighbouring_adm2_1deg.csv" and "lookup/neighbouring_adm2_2deg.csv" and to produce datasets with spatial joins in "lookup/world_bank_fews_pcodes.csv" and "lookup/yemen_adm2_population.csv".
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://data.humdata.org/dataset/cod-ab-yem
    High Resolution Population Density Maps from Facebook
    Name
    High Resolution Population Density Maps from Facebook
    Note
    Source: Data for Good at Meta. Data for Yemen is not available for download in the data URL. The team received the data for Yemen from Alex Pompe from Meta (alexpompe@fb.com) in July 2023. The data was manually processed in QGIS by mapping it to geographic district data from OCHA and collapsing it at the district and date level, producing the file "lookup/yemen_adm2_population.csv”. This file is not included in the reproducibility package. The README contains more information on how to re-create it for replicators with access to the data for Yemen.
    Access policy
    Data is restricted. Users must contact Meta to gain access to the data.
    Data URL
    https://dataforgood.facebook.com/dfg/tools/high-resolution-population-density-maps
    Yemen: Areas of control
    Name
    Yemen: Areas of control
    Note
    Source: ACAPS. Data was accessed in June 2023. Data was manually collapsed by the district for the faction controlling the area (column "actors") and the monetary system used (column "irg_or_dfa") in June 2023 to produce the file "lookups/yemen_areas_of_control_adm2.csv", which is included in the reproducibility package.
    Access policy
    Data is public and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://data.humdata.org/m/dataset/yemen-areas-of-control?
    Data statement

    Most data used is public and included in the reproducibility package. Seven datasets are public but cannot be redistributed in the reproducibility package. One dataset is restricted and requires contacting the data owners for access. The README contains information on accessing all datasets.

    Description

    Output
    A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis
    Type
    Working paper
    Title
    A Data-Driven Approach for Early Detection of Food Insecurity in Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) WPS10768
    URL
    http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099709505092462162
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10768
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Steve Penson World Bank spenson@worldbank.org
    Mathijs Lomme World Bank, ACAPS mathijs.lomme@acaps.org
    Bo Pieter Johannes Andree World Bank bandree@worldbank.org
    Zacharey Austin Carmichael World Bank zcarmichael@worldbank.org
    Alemu Manni World Bank alemu.Manni@fao.org
    Sudeep Shrestha ACAPS sds@acaps.org
    Date of production

    2024-06

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Yemen YEM
    Keywords
    Agriculture Food Security Crisis Early Warning Systems Food Price Analysis Vulnerability Economic Monitoring
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    C01 Econometrics C00 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C14 Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General C1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C25 Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models • Discrete Regressors • Proportions • Probabilities C2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C53 Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods C5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O10 General O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Steve Penson World Bank spenson@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DIME World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2024-06-24

    Document version

    1

    Citation

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