Trade exposure is traditionally seen as key to job creation and poverty reduction, but its efficacy is questioned amid global labor market upheavals and protectionist trends. Drawing on six underlying studies, this report uses disaggregated data from 1995 to 2019 to explore the nuanced impact of trade on jobs. Specifically, it investigates the impact of trade exposure on job creation, labor earnings, productivity, and job quality across countries with varying income levels. It finds that trade exposure, particularly in exports and global value chains, correlates with increased employment, especially in manufacturing where it is also associated with higher female workforce participation. Higher trade exposure is associated with increased labor earnings, with wage inequality decreasing in low- and middle-income countries due to global value chain integration. Labor productivity improves with export growth, especially benefiting unskilled workers in low-tech manufacturing and agriculture in developing countries. Job quality is also enhanced with more exports, transitioning to salaried employment positions and higher value-added activities outside of production. However, the report notes that trade exposure does not significantly boost job numbers or reduce earnings inequality in low-income countries. It also finds that the positive effects of trade on employment, earnings, and productivity have diminished following the global financial crisis of 2007. These findings offer insights into future job and trade policy strategies.
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Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 10 Enterprise
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz, 2900 Mhz, 16 Core(s), 16 Logical Processor(s)
• Memory available: 147 GB
• Software version: Stata 18MP
~60 minutes runtime
All data sources are publicly available, but not all are included in the reproducibility package. However, the replicators used data provided directly by the authors and did not verify if the publicly available data matches the data provided by the authors.
Author | Affiliation | |
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Maryla Maliszewska | World Bank | mmaliszewska@worldbank.org |
Deborah Winkler | World Bank | dwinkler2@worldbank.org |
Luis Alejandro Aguilar Luna | El Colegio de México | laguilar@colmex.mx |
2024-08
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World | WLD |
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
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Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
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Deborah Winkler | World Bank | dwinkler2@worldbank.org |
Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
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Reproducibility WBG | DIME | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2024-08-01
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