Reproducibility package for Procyclical fiscal policy in Argentina: Drivers and channels of a long-lasting marriage
Reference ID
RR_ARG_2024_163
Author(s)
Julián Folgar, Francisco García Posleman
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Sep 26, 2024
Last modified
Oct 28, 2024
Overview
Abstract
Fiscal policy can play a critical role in mitigating business cycle volatility. However, between 1990 and 2022, Argentina stood up as one of the most pro-cyclical countries globally. This paper scrutinizes Argentina's fiscal policy conduct throughout the business cycle, pinpointing pro-cyclical budget components and estimating the cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) incorporating transient and structural factors. The study reveals a significant decline in Argentina's CAPB. It shows that Argentina's fiscal pro-cyclicality stems primarily from expenditure policies, particular those related to pensions and public wages, setting Argentina apart from its peers. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of Argentina´s procyclical pensions and public wage policies, the paper finds that both have been influenced by “price” effect, while “quantities” effect has been particularly relevant for public wage bill in recent decades. Additionally, Argentina’s unconventional taxes exacerbate pro-cyclicality. These contributions hold significant implications for policymakers, offering valuable guidance in designing more effective policy levers to achieve fiscal policy objectives, including macroeconomic stabilization.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
Title
Reproducibility package (code and data) for Procyclical fiscal policy in Argentina: Drivers and channels of a long-lasting marriage
Dependencies
The reproducibility package uses one external dependency (HPFilter.xla), included in the zip file.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Software
Name
Excel
Version
Microsoft Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO
Reproducibility
Technology environment
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Pro, version 23H2
• Processor: 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 @ 2.60GHz 1.50 GHz
• Memory available: 15.7 GB
• Software version: Microsoft® Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO (Version 2402 Build 16.0.17328.20346) 64-bit
Technology requirements
There are no other technology requirements needed
Reproduction instructions
Open any of the Excel files that reproduce the figures of the paper and then open "HPfilter.xla". This will enable the use of the function "HP(XX, 100)" on the spreadsheets. Users can then inspect any plot to track how they are generated in Excel.
Data
Datasets
Name
IMF World Economic Outlook Database
Note
Indicators used: nominal public spending, inflation, and GDP. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Data was accessed in December 2022. Data was collected manually from a custom query in the data URL and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 1 to 4.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License URL
https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm
Data URL
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/April/select-country-group
Name
IMF Government Finance Statistics Database
Note
Indicator used: compensation of employees of the general government, as a percentage of GDP. Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Data was accessed in June 2023. Data was collected manually from a custom query in the data URL and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 8.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License URL
https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm
Data URL
https://data.imf.org/?sk=3c005430-5fdc-4a07-9474-64d64f1fb3dc
Name
Data from the Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto (Secretary of Treasury) of Argentina
Note
Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Oficina Nacional de Presupuesto. Data was accessed in April and August 2023 for different data tables from this source. Data was collected manually from sources of the data URL and compiled in the Excel files "Figure 6 and 7.xlsx" and "Figure 9.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/acerca
Data URL
https://www.economia.gob.ar/onp/estadisticas/
Name
Dos Siglos de Economia Argentina
Note
Series used: real GDP from 1960 to 2004. Source: Fundacion Norte y Sur. Data was accessed in April 2023. Data was collected manually from the data URL and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 1 to 4.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://dossiglos.fundacionnorteysur.org.ar/
Name
Argentina National Accounts
Note
Series used: Real GDP from 2004 to 2022. Source: Argentina's Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Y Censos (INDEC). Data was accessed in April 2023. Data was collected manually from the data URL, aggregated by year, and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 1 to 4.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-9-47
Name
Ejecucion Presupuestaria Provincial de Argentina (Budget Execution by Province of Argentina)
Note
Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Dirección Nacional de Asuntos Provinciales. Data was accessed in April 2023. Data was collected manually from sources of the data URL and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 9.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/acerca
Data URL
https://www.economia.gob.ar/dnap/ejecuciones.html
Name
OECD Social Expenditure Database
Note
Source: OECD Stats. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was collected from the data URL and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 10 11.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License URL
https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html
Data URL
https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30197
Name
Data on pensions expenditures of Latin American countries
Note
Source: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL). Data was accessed in December 2022. Data was manually compiled from the report of the data URL into the Excel file "Figure 10 11.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ef2286b9-b700-45e9-ac66-e343faa75211/content
Name
Data on pensions expenditures of Argentina
Note
Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Contaduría General de la Nación . Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from multiple sources of the data URL into the Excel file "Figure 10 11.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/acerca
Data URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/sechacienda/cgn/cuentainversion
Name
Argentina tax data
Note
Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina, Subsecretaría de Ingresos Públicos. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from multiple sources of the data URL into the Excel file "Figure 18 to 25.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/acerca
Data URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia/ingresospublicos/recaudacion
Name
Minimum pension benefit value of Argentina
Note
Source: Ministry of Economy of Argentina. Data was accessed in March 2024. Data was manually compiled from the data URL into the Excel file "Figure 12 13.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License URL
https://www.argentina.gob.ar/acerca
Data URL
https://www.economia.gob.ar/datos/
Name
OECD Global Revenue Statistics Database
Note
Source: OECD Data Explorer. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was downloaded from the data URL and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 12 13.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License URL
https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html
Data URL
https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?tenant=archive&df[ds]=DisseminateArchiveDMZ&df[id]=DF_RS_GBL&df[ag]=OECD&dq=...&lom=LASTNPERIODS&lo=5&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false
Name
Global tax rates
Note
Source: Vegh and Vuletin (2015). The data is available in the World Bank Open Knowledge Repository, see the data URL. Data was accessed in March 2023. Data was downloaded from the data URL (in the link "English Microsoft Excel XML (180.55 KB)") and compiled in the Excel file "Figure 16-17.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organization
License URL
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/pages/terms-of-use/en
Data URL
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29303
Name
Argentina export duties by type of product
Note
Source: Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP) of Argentina. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from multiple sources of the data URL into the Excel file "Figure 18 to 25.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://www.afip.gob.ar/estudios/anuario-estadisticas-tributarias/
Name
IMF Commodity terms of trade
Note
Source: IMF. Data was accessed in August 2023. Data was manually compiled from the data URL into the Excel file "Figure 18 to 25.xlsx". See README for details.
Access policy
Data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
License URL
https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm
Data URL
https://data.imf.org/?sk=2CDDCCB8-0B59-43E9-B6A0-59210D5605D2
Data statement
All data is public and included in the reproducibility package.
Description
Output
Type
Working paper
Title
Procyclical fiscal policy in Argentina: Drivers and channels of a long-lasting marriage
Description
Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) WPS10942
URL
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099719010032428787/IDU1cc15bab3161ae14a091b69e168967d00bf2a
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10942
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Julián Folgar | World Bank | jfolgar@worldbank.org |
| Francisco García Posleman | fgarciaposleman@gmail.com |
Date of production
2024-09
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Argentina | ARG |
Keywords
fiscal policy
procyclicality
Argentina
CAPB
pensions
wage bill
taxes
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Julián Folgar | World Bank | jfolgar@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DIME | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2024-09-10
Document version
1