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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Global Ripple Effects: Knock-on effects of EU, US, and China Climate Policies on Developing Countries’ Trade

2024
Get Reproducibility Package
Reference ID
RR_WLD_2024_230
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/vsrx-vn58
Author(s)
Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Euijin Jung, Maryla Maliszewska, Iryna Sikora
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Nov 26, 2024
Last modified
Nov 26, 2024
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation

    • Overview

    Abstract

    The three major players in the global economy, the US, EU, and China, have been designing climate mitigation policies that will help reduce their carbon emissions but will also likely reshape developing countries’ trade, prices, and access to technology. This paper examines developing countries’ exposure to such changes. Overall, the policies are expected to curtail demand for fossil fuels, energy-intensive manufacturing, and agricultural exports linked to environmental degradation. They are also expected to open export opportunities in critical minerals, electric vehicles (EVs) and their components, and renewable energy technologies and components. The exposure of affected export sectors and the overall economy to these changes will vary across countries based on the orientation of their export sectors to the EU, US, and Chinese markets as well as the weight of affected exports in their economies. The climate policies will also likely reduce oil prices and raise critical mineral prices, help reduce the cost of green technologies and increase green foreign investment. The paper draws recommendations for developing countries, the EU, US, and China, as well as the international community on how best to help developing countries lessen the potential negative competitiveness effects of these climate policies and make the most of the opportunities for a faster green transition and economic development.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    Title
    Reproducibility package (partial data and Excel files) for Global Ripple Effects: Knock-on effects of EU, US, and China Climate Policies on Developing Countries’ Trade
    Date
    2024-11
    Dependencies
    The reproducibility package does not use external dependencies.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by the Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18 MP
    Name
    Excel
    Version
    Microsoft Excel for Microsoft 365 MSO

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:
    – OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    – Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 CPU @ 2.60GHz
    – Memory available: 15.7 GB
    – Software version: Stata version 18 MP
    Technology requirements

    ~2 minutes run time for the Stata portion.

    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce this package a new user needs to follow these instructions.

    1. Obtain and Organize the Data
    • Access the licensed data and organize datasets into the correct folder structure as detailed in the README file and accompanying Excel sheets.
    • Data for Table 3 is restricted and may be difficult to obtain. However, the final table used in the paper and the dataset structure are included in the relevant Excel sheet for reference.

    1. Process the Stata Portion
      a. Run 1. data for figures do file: This will generate Data for figures/data for figures_v1.xlsx, which is used for Figures 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13.
      b. Run 2. GVC do file: This will generate Data for figures/GVC Exposure Indicator.xlsx, required for Figures 4, 6, and 8. Note: The raw data and the resulting indicator are embargoed and not included in the package. See data statement for more details.

    2. Generate and Verify Figures
      a. For Figures 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13: verify that the included data for figures_v1.xlsx matches data for figures_final.xlsx and the paper.
      b. For Figures 4, 6, and 8: verify that the included GVC Exposure Indicator.xlsx matches GVC Exposure Indicator_final.xlsx and the paper. Note that this will only be possible once the embargoed data is included in the reproducibility package.
      c. For Figures 5 and 14, and Table 3: These figures were created manually. Refer to the README and relevant files for further instructions.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    World Integrated Trade Solution Data
    Note
    Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) Data. Located at: Data/Dashboard_rawdata.xlsx (Figures 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13), and EG imports from China.xlsx (Figure 14); CBAM exposure index.xlsx (Figure 5). The data is licensed and does not permit republication. However, the Excel file provides: a list of codes used to create the figures; details of all countries included; and the structure of the data.
    Access policy
    Restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
    License URL
    https://wits.worldbank.org/faqs.html#Databases
    Data URL
    https://wits.worldbank.org/WITS/WITS/Restricted/Login.aspx
    Name
    Eora Global Supply Chain Database
    Note
    Source: EORA. The database was used alongside the methodology described by Baldwin, Freeman, and Theodorakopoulos (2023) to develop the GVC Exposure Indicator. Both the raw data and the generated indicator are temporarily embargoed. The reproducibility package will be updated when the embargo is lifted. However, the package includes the code file used to generate the indicator, as well as the structure of the resulting data in the Excel file. This file provides a list of products, countries, and specific data used to create the figures. Located at: Data/GVC Exposure Indicator.xlsx. Used to create Figures 4, 6, and 8.
    Access policy
    Restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
    License URL
    https://worldmrio.com/licensing.jsp
    Data URL
    https://worldmrio.com/
    Name
    Energy Transition Minerals Data
    Note
    Source: World Bank's Africa Team. The data, shared directly by the Africa team, comprises the Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) reserves dataset. It includes information for six critical minerals essential for the energy transition: cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, manganese, and nickel. Location: CM reserve.xlsx (Used to create Table 3 in the paper). There is no standard public channel to obtain this data. However, the Excel file includes the table as shown in the paper, as well as the structure of the data and list of countries and minerals included. The replicator verified that the values in the raw data match those shown in the table in the paper.
    Access policy
    Restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
    Name
    Global Trade Analysis Project Data
    Note
    Source: Chepeliev, M., and Corong, E. (2022). “Revisiting the Environmental Bias of Trade Policies Based on an Environmentally Extended GTAP MRIO Database.” Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University. Located at: CBAM exposure index.xlsx (Used for Figure 5). The data is restricted and not included in the package. However, the Excel file contains a list of products, allowing users to download the necessary data and replace the values in the appropriate cells to reproduce the figure.
    Access policy
    Restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
    Data URL
    https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v10/index.aspx
    Name
    World Development Indicators
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Located at: Data/GDP.dta. Indicator consulted: GDP (current US$).
    Access policy
    Included with the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CH.
    Name
    World Bank Country and Lending Groups
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Located at: Other Data/ISO_Region_Income.dta
    Access policy
    Published with the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Global Ripple Effects: Knock-on effects of EU, US, and China Climate Policies on Developing Countries’ Trade
    Authors
    Enrique Aldaz-Carroll, Euijin Jung, Maryla Maliszewska, and Iryna Sikora
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 10988
    URL
    http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099404411262427372/IDU1a2acff15188ab14ea51a7561bd72b8127c1d
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10988
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Enrique Aldaz-Carroll World Bank ealdazcarroll@worldbank.org
    Euijin Jung World Bank ejung1@worldbank.org
    Maryla Maliszewska World Bank mmaliszewska@worldbank.org
    Iryna Sikora World Bank isikora@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2024-11

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Euijin Jung World Bank ejung1@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DIME World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2024-11-25
    Document version

    1

    Citation

    Citation
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