Reproducibility package for Mapping the Risk Posed to Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems by Uncontrolled Access to Photovoltaic Water Pumping in Sub-Saharan Africa

Photovoltaic-powered groundwater pumping offers a transformative solution for water services in underserved areas. However, without proper regulation, this technology could overexploit groundwater resources, threatening groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) which rely on them. Often overlooked in development planning and water allocation, GDEs yet hold significant socio-economic and environmental importance. This study maps the risk to sub-Saharan GDEs from uncontrolled access to photovoltaic groundwater pumping using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). It evaluates risks using data on irradiance, groundwater, population, and novel data on GDEs. Two scenarios are analysed to improve the robustness of the findings. Results show that 91% of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDEs risk overexploitation if photovoltaic water pumping is implemented without proper controls. GDEs in southern and eastern Africa, particularly South Africa and Namibia, are found to face higher risks, while those in Gabon, Congo, and southern Nigeria tend to be less at risk. Comparing these results with populations relying on unimproved water sources highlights regions like southern Nigeria and South Sudan which could be prioritized for potential photovoltaic water pumping system investments due to their higher groundwater development needs and lower risks to GDEs. Conversely, areas like Namibia and South Africa, with lower groundwater development needs but higher risks to GDEs, should require targeted investments and very close groundwater monitoring. These findings can help policymakers in targeting investments on PVWPS and identifying regions needing careful monitoring to ensure sustainable groundwater use and minimal impact on GDEs.