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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Jobless Development

2025
Reference ID
RR_WLD_2025_286
Author(s)
Franziska Ohnsorge, Richard Rogerson, Zoe Leiyu Xie
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Apr 08, 2025
Last modified
Apr 08, 2025
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Analyses of GDP per capita differences across countries focus almost exclusively on differences in productivity. We show that there are also large differences in medium-run dynamics in the employment-to-population ratio. We find a general tendency for productivity growth to be negatively correlated with changes in the employment to population ratio for a large sample of EMDEs. We coin the term jobless development to describe this phenomenon. We also show that there are large differences in the steady state levels of the employment to population ratios that countries are converging to. There are also countries that experience substantial increases in their employment-to-population ratio during the development process. We use a two-stage procedure to study this issue in a large sample of EMDEs. In the first stage, we estimate differences in steady-state employment ratios across countries. In the second stage, we document which institutional and policy factors are correlated with steady-state employment ratios. We find particularly large differences across countries in steady-state employment ratios for women. Fewer legal protections of women’s rights are associated with lower steady-state employment ratios for women, without an offsetting positive effect for men.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Jobless Development
    Date
    2025-04
    Dependencies
    All dependencies are stored in the ado folder.
    Notes
    This reproducibility package, including all data and code, is currently under a temporary embargo and will be published at a later date. Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 10 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz 2.90 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 32 GB
    • Software version: Stata version 18 MP
    Technology requirements

    ~ 15minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    The replication package is currently under a temporary embargo. The data and code required to reproduce the results are not yet publicly available but are expected to be released in the coming months.

    Once the embargo is lifted and the data and code are published, users should follow these steps to replicate the results:

    1. Download the Required Data and Code: After the materials are made public, download the dataset(s) as indicated in the Datasets section and place them in the appropriate folder within the project directory.
    2. Run the Package:
      To execute the replication code:
      • Open the Stata do-file named main.
      • On line 9, update the global path to reflect the location of the replication package on your machine.
      • Run the main file.

        Important: Do not delete the file FiguresTables. This Excel file contains embedded calculations that depend on the outputs generated by the code. Deleting it will result in the outputs not reproducing correctly.
        We will update this page once the embargo is lifted and the replication materials are made publicly accessible.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    International Labor Organization (ILOSTAT)
    Note
    Source: International Labor Organization (ILOSTAT). Indicators: Employment by sex and age -- ILO modelled estimates, Nov. 2022 (thousands), Employment by sex and age (thousands), Informal employment rate by sex and age (%), Informal employment rate by sex and economic activity (%), Labour force by sex and age (thousands), Share of employment outside the formal sector by sex and age (%), Share of employment outside the formal sector by sex and economic activity (%), Population by sex and age -- UN estimates and projections, July 2022 (thousands), Employment by sex, age and economic activity (thousands), Employment by sex, economic activity and education (thousands), Employment by sex and economic activity -- ILO modelled estimates, Nov. 2022 (thousands), Employment by sex and economic activity (thousands), Working-age population by sex and age (thousands). File names: 0_ILOSTAT Employment Model.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Employment Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Informal Rate Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Informal Sector Rate Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Labor Force Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Non-Formal Rate Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Non-Formal Sector Rate Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Population by Age UN.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Sector Age Employment Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Sector Educ Employment Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Sector Employment Model.csv, 0_ILOSTAT Sector Employment Survey.csv, 0_ILOSTAT WAP Survey.csv Located at: InputData/RawData. Please see more information in the README file.
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://www.ilo.org/rights-and-permissions#data
    Data URL
    https://rshiny.ilo.org/index.html
    Name
    World Development Indicators
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Located at: InputData/RawData File names: 1_WDI_AgriRGVA.xls, 1_WDI_GDPpc.xls, 1_WDI_InduRGVA.xls, 1_WDI_RGDP.xls, 1_WDI_RGVA.xls, 1_WDI_ServRGVA.xls Indicators: Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (constant 2015 US$); GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$); Industry (including construction), value added (constant 2015 US$); GDP (constant 2015 US$); Gross value added at basic prices (GVA) (constant 2015 US$); Services, value added (constant 2015 US$) File name: LFS_WDI.xlsx. Indicators: Labor force, total, Labor force participation rate, male (% of male population ages 15+) (national estimate), Labor force with advanced education (% of total working-age population with advanced education), Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+) (national estimate), Labor force with advanced education, female (% of female working-age population with advanced education), Labor force with advanced education, male (% of male working-age population with advanced education), Labor force with basic education (% of total working-age population with basic education), Labor force with basic education, female (% of female working-age population with basic education), Labor force with basic education, male (% of male working-age population with basic education), Labor force with intermediate education (% of total working-age population with intermediate education), Labor force with intermediate education, female (% of female working-age population with intermediate education), Labor force with intermediate education, male (% of male working-age population with intermediate education), Labor force, female (% of total labor force), Unemployment with advanced education (% of total labor force with advanced education), Unemployment with advanced education, female (% of female labor force with advanced education), Unemployment with advanced education, male (% of male labor force with advanced education), Unemployment with basic education (% of total labor force with basic education), Unemployment with basic education, female (% of female labor force with basic education), Unemployment with basic education, male (% of male labor force with basic education), Unemployment with intermediate education (% of total labor force with intermediate education), Unemployment with intermediate education, female (% of female labor force with intermediate education), Unemployment with intermediate education, male (% of male labor force with intermediate education), Unemployment, female (% of female labor force) (national estimate), Unemployment, male (% of male labor force) (national estimate), Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (national estimate). Located at: InputData/RawControlVars File name: WAP_wdi.dta Indicators: Population, total; Population, male; Population, female; Population ages 15-64 (% of total population); Population ages 15-64 (% of total population), female; Population ages 15-64 (% of total population), male.
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses#cc-by
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Name
    Women, Business and the Law Data
    Note
    Source: World Bank. 2024. Women, Business and the Law 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank. File name: WBL-1971-2023-Dataset.xlsx. Located at: InputData/RawControlVars
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://wbl.worldbank.org/en/wbl-data
    Name
    Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC 10-Sector Database)
    Note
    Source: Timmer, M. P., de Vries, G. J., & de Vries, K. (2015). “Patterns of Structural Change in Developing Countries.” . In J. Weiss, & M. Tribe (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Industry and Development. (pp. 65-83). Routledge. File name: GGDC10Sector_jan15.xlsx Located at: InputData/RawData
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    Data URL
    https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/structuralchange/previous-sector-database/10-sector-2014
    Name
    Informal Economy Database
    Note
    Source: Elgin, C., M. A. Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and S. Yu. 2021. “Understanding Informality.” CERP Discussion Paper 16497, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. File name: informal-economy-database.xlsx. Located at: InputData/RawData
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses#cc-by
    Data URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/informal-economy-database
    Name
    Bento and Restuccia (2018)
    Note
    Source: Bento, Pedro, and Diego Restuccia. 2018. "On Average Establishment Size across Sectors and Countries." National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper Series 24968. File name: Data_BRAES_Final.dta. Located at: InputData/RawControlVars. Data can be downloaded from the provided link.
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    Data URL
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ohmp-ZN94mG98kPvrhdqgoMhuOAaESSE/view
    Name
    Penn World Table
    Note
    Source: Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P. Timmer (2015), "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table" American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182, available for download at www.ggdc.net/pwt. File name: PennTablepwt1001.xlsx. Located at: InputData/RawData
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/?lang=en
    Name
    United Nations World Population Prospects 2022
    Note
    Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). World Population Prospects 2022, Online Edition. File name: UNPopulationByAgeCompletedataset.xlsx. Located at: InputData/RawData
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
    Data URL
    https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads?folder=Archive&group=Standard%20Projections
    Name
    Economic Transformation Database
    Note
    Source: Kruse, H., E. Mensah, K. Sen, and G. J. de Vries (2022). “A manufacturing renaissance? Industrialization trends in the developing world”, IMF Economic Review DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00183-7. File name: UNUWider etd-release2021.xlsx. Located at: InputData/RawData
    Access policy
    Publicly available and will be included in the package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial ShareAlike 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    https://www.wider.unu.edu/about/copyright
    Data URL
    https://www.wider.unu.edu/database/etd-economic-transformation-database
    Name
    World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES)
    Note
    Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys, www.enterprisesurveys.org World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) are nationally representative firm-level surveys, with top managers and owners of businesses interviewed using a globally comparable questionnaire that covers a broad range of business environment topics as well as firms’ characteristics and performance measures. The dataset was last accessed by the authors in November 2024. Since the data is updated periodically, the latest version may differ from the one used in the study. File names: ES-Indicators-Database-Global-Methodology_November_20_2023.dta and New_Comprehensive_November_20_2023.dta. Located at: InputData/RawControlVars. The data can be accessed after creating an account and following the instructions in the README.
    Access policy
    Publicly available but does not allow redistribution. It will not be available in the package.
    Data URL
    https://login.enterprisesurveys.org/content/sites/financeandprivatesector/en/library/combineddata.html
    Name
    Financial Access Survey
    Note
    Source: International Monetary Fund. Financial Access Survey (FAS), https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.STA:FAS. File name: IMF_FAS.xlsx Located at: InputData/RawControlVars. Data can be accessed after creating an account and following the instructions in the README.
    Access policy
    Publicly available but does not allow redistribution. It will not be available in the package.
    Data URL
    https://data.imf.org/?sk=e5dcab7e-a5ca-4892-a6ea-598b5463a34c&sid=1460043522778
    Name
    Economic Freedom of the World
    Note
    Source: Data from Economic Freedom of the World: 2024 Annual Report. Copyright 2024, The Fraser Institute. All rights reserved. File name: economic-freedom-of-the-world-2023-master-index-data-for-researchers-iso.xlsx. Located at: InputData/RawControlVars. Data can be accessed from the link provided.
    Access policy
    Publicly available but does not allow redistribution. It will not be available in the package.
    Data URL
    https://efotw.org/economic-freedom/dataset?geozone=world&page=dataset&min-year=2&max-year=0&filter=0
    Name
    Classification Data
    Note
    File created by the authors. Sources: Variable "ifscode": IMF World Economic Outlook (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2022/02/weodata/co.pdf). Variables "Market" and "Commodityexport": Table 1.2 of Global Economic Prospects (e.g., the Jan 2024 issue) for EMDE and commodity exporter classifications. Variable "Region": World Bank’s classification of geographic region (https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/378834-how-does-the-world-bank-classify-countries). Variable "Smallstates": World Bank’s list of small states (e.g., https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/statement/2024/06/26/small-states-and-small-states-forum-members). Variable "wbcode": IBAN Alpha-3 code (https://www.iban.com/country-codes). File name: classification.dta. Located at: InputData/IntermData.
    Access policy
    Data will be included in the package
    Name
    Gross Domestic Product data
    Note
    Source: Internal database provided by DECPG, based on the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, World Development Indicators, and Haver Analytics. The original dataset used to construct this data was provided directly to the authors by DECPG. This dataset is restricted and not accessible through standard public channels. However, the intermediate data required to run the replication code will be included in the package once it is published. File name: gdp.dta. Location: InputData/IntermData
    Access policy
    Data will be included in the package
    Data statement

    All data is temporarily embargoed by the authors (expected to be made public in the future).

    Description

    Output
    Type
    World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
    Title
    Jobless Development
    Authors
    Franziska Ohnsorge , Richard Rogerson, and Zoe Leiyu Xie
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Franziska Ohnsorge World Bank fohnsorge@worldbank.org
    Richard Rogerson Princeton School of Public and International Affairs rdr@princeton.edu
    Zoe Leiyu Xie World Bank lxie@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2025-04

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Employment Emerging And Developing Countries Structural Transformation Female Labor Force Participation
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts J1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J16 Economics of Gender • Non-labor Discrimination J1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure J2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F66 Labor F6 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O41 One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models O4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence O4 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Zoe Leiyu Xie World Bank lxie@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DIME World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2025-04-03
    Document version

    1
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