Reproducibility package for The Welfare Cost of Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

2025

Reference ID

RR_SSA_2024_250

DOI

https://doi.org/10.60572/385g-5c44

Author(s)

Ruth Hill , Sandra Baquie , Katja Vinha , Emmanuel Skoufias , Evie Calcutt, Varun Kshirsagar , Conor Meenan, Jon Gascoigne

Collections

World Bank Policy Research Working Papers

Metadata

JSON

Created on

Jul 09, 2025

Last modified

Jul 09, 2025

Overview

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact of drought on household consumption for five main agroecological zones in Africa, developing vulnerability (or damage) functions of the relationship between rainfall deficits and poverty. Damage functions are a key element in models that quantify the risk of extreme weather and the impacts of climate change. Although these functions are commonly estimated for storm or flood damages to buildings, they are less often available for income losses from droughts. The paper takes a regional approach to the analysis, developing standardized hazard definitions and methods for matching hazard and household data, allowing survey data from close to 100,000 households to be used in the analysis. The damage functions are used to quantify the impact of historical weather conditions on poverty for eight countries, highlighting the risk to poverty outcomes that weather variability causes. National poverty rates are 1–12 percent higher, depending on the country, under the worst weather conditions relative to the best conditions observed in the past 13 years. This amounts to an increase in the total poverty gap that ranges from US$4 million to US$2.4 billion (2011 purchasing power parity).

Reproducibility Package

Scripts

Readme Get Reproducibility Package

Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/301/download/901/README.pdf

Reproducibility package for The Welfare Cost of Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

Title

Reproducibility package for The Welfare Cost of Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

Date

2025-07

Dependencies

Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.

Instructions

See README in reproducibility package.

Notes

Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.

Source code repository

Repository name	URI
Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)	https://reproducibility.worldbank.org

Software

Stata

Name

Stata

Version

18 MP

Reproducibility

Technology environment

Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:
– OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
– Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
– Memory available: 32.0 GB
– Software version: Stata 18.0 MP

Technology requirements

~ 48 hours

Reproduction instructions

Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See subsection Datasets and the README for more details.
Download and Place Data: Once the data is downloaded, users should place it in the appropriate folder.
Run the Package: After placing the data in the folder:
- Open the do-file "Drought_paper_analyses"
- Update the globals in line 14 to your folder's location and run the do-file

Since all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators in the Results folder. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

Data

Datasets

Gridded Global Administrative Areas (GADM) for Africa

Name

Gridded Global Administrative Areas (GADM) for Africa

Note

Source: Global Administrative Areas. 2012. GADM database of Global Administrative Areas, version 2.0. Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/gadm_admin_urg005_mapping

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066860/Gridded-Global-Administrative-Areas--GADM--for-Africa

Gridded Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) for Africa

Name

Gridded Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) for Africa

Note

Source: Gridded GAUL designations at uniform grid resolution of 0.05° by 0.05° used in Gascoigne et al. (2024). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/country_mapping

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066859/Gridded-Global-Administrative-Unit-Layers--GAUL--for-Africa

Gridded Crop Coverage for Africa

Name

Gridded Crop Coverage for Africa

Note

Source: Buchhorn, M., B. Smets, L. Bertels, B. De Roo, M. Lesiv, N.-E. Tsendbazar, M. Herold, and S. Fritz. Copernicus Global Land Service: Land Cover 100m: Collection 3: epoch 2019: Globe 2020. (https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/lc). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/crop_coverage/country_mapping.

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066869/Gridded-Crop-Coverage-for-Africa

Crop calendar for Africa

Name

Crop calendar for Africa

Note

Source1 : Dimou, Maria (2018): Crop calendar dataset compatible with satellite-derived land surface phenology. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/jrc-10112-10003. Source2: https://geodata.ucdavis.edu/gadm/gadm3.6/ Located at: /Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/merge_variable_data; Input_data/Data_Integration/SSA/crop_calendar_gaul_asap1.

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066842/Crop-calendar-for-Africa

Gridded Travel Time to Market for Africa

Name

Gridded Travel Time to Market for Africa

Note

Source: Gridded Travel Time to Market at uniform grid resolution of 0.05° by 0.05° used in Gascoigne et al. (2024). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/time_to_market/country_mapping

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066865/Gridded-Travel-Time-to-Market-for-Africa

Gridded Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) for Africa

Name

Gridded Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) for Africa

Note

Source: Gridded Global Agro-ecological Zones at uniform grid resolution of 0.05° by 0.05° used in Gascoigne et al. (2024). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/agro_ecological_zone/country_mapping.

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066857/Gridded-Global-Agro-ecological-Zones--GAEZ--for-Africa

Gridded Livelihood Zones for Africa

Name

Gridded Livelihood Zones for Africa

Note

Source: Dixon, John, Dennis P. Garrity, Jean-Marc Boffa, Timothy O. Williams, Tilahun Amede, Christopher Auricht, Rosemary Lott, and George Mburathi, eds. 2019. Farming Systems and Food Security in Africa: Priorities for Science and Policy Under Global Change. Routledge. (See figure 2.2b.). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/livelihood_zone/country_mapping

Access policy

Data is restricted and not included in the package. World Bank internal users can access the data at the link provided. Users outside the Bank can contact the authors to access the dataset.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/int/search/dataset/0066861/Gridded-Livelihood-Zones-for-Africa

Gridded Dekadal Precipitation Data (CHIRPS) for Africa

Name

Gridded Dekadal Precipitation Data (CHIRPS) for Africa

Note

Source: Funk, C.C., P. J. Peterson, M. F. Landsfeld, D. H. Pedreros, J. P. Verdin, J. D. Rowland, B. E. Romero, G. J. Husak, J. C. Michaelsen, and A. P. Verdin. 2014. “A Quasi-Global Precipitation Time Series for Drought monitoring.” US Geological Survey Data Series 832, ftp://chg-ftpout.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/org/chg/products/CHIRPS-2.0/docs/USGS-DS832.CHIRPS.pdf. Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/CHIRPS

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided, but not included in the package due to size restrictions.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066858/Gridded-Dekadal-Precipitation-Data--CHIRPS--for-Africa

Gridded 3-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Africa

Name

Gridded 3-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for Africa

Note

Source: Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Zaragoza, Spain. Santiago Beguería, Estación Experimental de Aula Dei, Zaragoza, Spain. (https://spei.csic.es/). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/SPEI3

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066863/Gridded-3-month-Standardized-Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Index--SPEI--for-Africa

Gridded Dekadal Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for Africa

Name

Gridded Dekadal Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) for Africa

Note

Source: Verdin, J., and R. Klaver. 2002. “Grid‐cell‐based Crop Water Accounting for the Famine Early Warning System.” Hydrological Processes 16 (8): 1617–30. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1025. (https://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/project/fews/dekadal/ , https://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/product/128). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/WRSI

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066866/Gridded-Dekadal-Water-Requirement-Satisfaction-Index--WRSI--for-Africa

Gridded Dekadal Soil Water Index (SWI) for Africa

Name

Gridded Dekadal Soil Water Index (SWI) for Africa

Note

Source: Copernicus Service information 2018. (https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/swi). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/SWI

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066864/Gridded-Dekadal-Soil-Water-Index--SWI--for-Africa

Gridded Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for Africa

Name

Gridded Monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for Africa

Note

Source: Didan, K. 2021. MODIS/Terra Vegetation Indices Monthly L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG V061 [data set]. NASA EOSDIS Land Processes DAAC. Accessed 2021-06-24 from https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD13C2.061. (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod13c2v061/). Located at: Input_data/Remote_Sensed/SSA/NDVI

Access policy

Publicly available at the link provided and included in the package.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0066862/Gridded-Monthly-Normalized-Difference-Vegetation-Index--NDVI--for-Africa

Simulated Dekadal Soil Water Index (SWI)

Name

Simulated Dekadal Soil Water Index (SWI)

Note

Source: Blanchard, Antoine, and Luis Sousa. 2021. “Probabilistic Hazard Analysis for Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa: Stochastic Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Index Datasets for Malawi.” AIR Worldwide. Located at: Input_Data/Simulated/Country/Malawi

Access policy

Data is restricted and not included in the package. World Bank internal users can access the data at the link provided. Users outside the Bank can contact the authors to access the dataset.

Data URL

https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/int/search/dataset/0066871/simulated_dekadal_soil_water_index_swi

Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys

Name

Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys

Note

Source: Household consumption surveys provided by country poverty economists in the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice. Table C in the README lists the names of the household surveys used. Countries included: Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Location: Household_Survey/ ; Data_Integration\Country\Ethiopia; Data_Integration\Country\Zimbabwe. A detailed list of datasets is available in the data_hash_report file included in the package.

Access policy

Data is restricted and not included in the package. Ruth Hill (rhill@worldbank.org) can be contacted for details.

Data statement

Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

Description

Output

The Welfare Cost of Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

Type

World Bank Policy Research Working Papers

Title

The Welfare Cost of Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa

Description

Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)

Authors

Author	Affiliation	Email
Ruth Hill	World Bank and Centre for Disaster Protection	rhill@worldbank.org
Sandra Baquie	World Bank	sbaquie@worldbank.org
Katja Vinha	World Bank	kvinha@worldbank.org
Emmanuel Skoufias	National University of Singapore and World Bank	SKOUFIAS@nus.edu.sg
Evie Calcutt	World Bank	ecalcutt@worldbank.org
Varun Kshirsagar	World Bank	vkshirsagar@worldbank.org
Conor Meenan	Centre for Disaster Protection
Jon Gascoigne	Centre for Disaster Protection

Date of production

2025-07

Scope and coverage

Geographic locations

Location	Code
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income)	SSA

Keywords

Shocks and vulnerability to poverty drought

Topics

ID	Topic	Parent topic ID	Vocabulary	Vocabulary URI
Q34	Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts	Q3	JEL Classifications
I32	Measurement and Analysis of Poverty	I3	JEL Classifications

Disclaimer

The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package

Access and rights

License

Name	URI
Modified BSD3	https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

Contacts

Name	Affiliation	Email
Katja Vinha	World Bank	kvinha@worldbank.org
Ruth Hill	World Bank	rhill@worldbank.org
Reproducibility WBG	World Bank	reproducibility@worldbank.org

Information on metadata

Producers

Name	Abbreviation	Affiliation	Role
Reproducibility WBG	DIME	World Bank - Development Impact Department	Verification and preparation of metadata

Date of Production

2025-07-08

Document version

Citation

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