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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Public and Private Transit: Evidence from Lagos

2025
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Reference ID
RR_NGA_2025_298
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/1kgd-pp28
Author(s)
Daniel Björkegren, Alice Duhaut, Geetika Nagpal, Nick Tsivanidis
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Sep 09, 2025
Last modified
Sep 09, 2025
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Private minibuses dominate transport in many developing country cities. They serve 62% of trips in Lagos, the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa.We collect panel data to measure how private minibuses respond to the rollout of a new public bus network. When the government enters a route, minibuses depart less frequently, driver profits fall, and drivers switch to connected routes, reducing prices.We develop a custom app to estimate how commuters trade off prices and wait times in an RCT. The private response harms commuters on treated routes, who wait longer, but benefits those on connected routes, who face only lower prices. Overall, over one quarter of the commuter welfare gains of building the public transit system arise from the response of private transit. Drivers lose welfare equal to 60% of the commuter gains.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_NGA_2025_298
    Zip package
    RR_NGA_2025_298.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Public and Private Transit: Evidence from Lagos
    Date
    2025-08
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder. R dependencies are listed in the renv.lock file. Python dependencies are listed in the environment.yml file. Matlab toolboxes: statistics and machine learning toolbox, parallel computing toolbox.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18.5
    Name
    Matlab
    Version
    2024b
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.8.19
    Name
    R
    Version
    4.4.1
    Name
    QGIS
    Version
    3.38.1

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise, version 23H2
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6132 CPU @ 2.60GHz 2.60 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 32 GB
    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 20 hours.
    Reproduction instructions
    1. Access the data: There is no documented way to access the LAMATA data, and one other dataset (Public transportation trips data for Lagos) is not yet public but will become available in the future. No portion of the code can run without these data. See the README and the Datasets section for details.
    2. Download and place the data: Once all data are obtained, copy it to the corresponding folders as noted in the README.
    3. Run the code:
      • Open the do-file "main-01", update the path global, and run it.
      • Run the Matlab script "04_quantitativeFinal"
      • Open the do-file "main-02", update the path global, and run it.
      • Open the Python script "lib/configurePaths.Py" and update the project root in line 12.
      • Run the Python script "07_priceChangePlots.py"
      • Run the Python script "08_priceElasticityRegressions.py"
      • Run the Python script "09A_summaryStatistics.py"
      • Run the Python script "10_MLEstimation.py"
      • Run the Python script "11A_checkinShift_compileData.py"
      • Open the R script "11B_checkinShift.R", update the working directory, and run it.
      • Open the do-file "main-03", update the path global, and run it.
      • Open the QGIS project file "maps/paper_maps.qgz" and display the layers clipped_ghs_pop and Carto Voyager
        • The layers BRT and Standard Bus reproduce figure 1A.
        • The layers BRT, Standard Bus, and Private Transit Routes reproduce figure 1B.
        • The layers Treated, Connected, and Control reproduce figure 1B.

    Since not all the data is accessible, the package includes the results produced by replicators in the folder "output/fig" and "output/tab". These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Public transportation trips data for Lagos
    Note
    Source: data was collected by the study authors between June 2020 and December 2023. All data files for this dataset are listed in the README.
    Access policy
    Data is forthcoming on the World Bank Development Data Hub.
    Name
    Electronic ticketing and fare data for public transportation in Lagos
    Note
    Source: Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA). All data files for this dataset are listed in the README. Data was received between June 2021 and December 2023.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by LAMATA. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution
    Name
    COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports
    Note
    Source: Google. Data file: "raw/Global_Mobility_Report.csv". Data was accessed in April 29, 2025.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution.
    License
    Google Terms of Service
    License URL
    https://policies.google.com/terms?hl=en
    Data URL
    https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/index.html?hl=en
    Citation
    Google LLC "Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports". https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ Accessed: April 29, 2025.
    Name
    Lagos privately operated transport routes
    Note
    Source: Where Is My Transport. Data files: "maps/raw/Lagos_GeoPackage_V2.gpkg" and "maps/raw/danfo_wimt.shp". Data was accessed in October 2022. The data source closed down in late 2023 and the data is not available from its source.
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package.
    Name
    Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL)
    Note
    Source: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). Data files: "maps/raw/GHS_POP_E2020_GLOBE_R2023A_54009_100_V1_0_R9_C19.tif", "maps/raw/clipped_ghs_pop.tif". The data available in the download URL (https://jeodpp.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ftp/jrc-opendata/GHSL/GHS_POP_GLOBE_R2023A/GHS_POP_E2020_GLOBE_R2023A_54009_100/V1-0/tiles/, file "GHS_POP_E2020_GLOBE_R2023A_54009_100_V1_0_R9_C19.zip") was clipped to include only Lagos and the study boundaries and was saved in the file "clipped_ghs_pop.tif".
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://commission.europa.eu/legal-notice_en
    Data URL
    https://human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu/ghs_pop2023.php
    Citation
    Schiavina M., Freire S., Carioli A., MacManus K. (2023): GHS-POP R2023A - GHS population grid multitemporal (1975-2030).European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/2ff68a52-5b5b-4a22-8f40-c41da8332cfe, doi:10.2905/2FF68A52-5B5B-4A22-8F40-C41DA8332CFE
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Public and Private Transit: Evidence from Lagos
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Daniel Björkegren Columbia University dan@bjorkegren.com
    Alice Duhaut World Bank aduhaut@worldbank.org
    Geetika Nagpal World Bank gnagpal@worldbank.org
    Nick Tsivanidis UC Berkeley ntsivanidis@berkeley.edu
    Date of production

    2025-09-08

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Nigeria NGA

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Geetika Nagpal World Bank gnagpal@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2025-09-08
    Document version

    1

    Citation

    Citation
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