Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries

2025

Get Reproducibility Package

Reference ID

RR_ASI_2025_413

DOI

https://doi.org/10.60572/pjwv-m944

Author(s)

Muhammad Khudadd Chattha, Tobias Kawalec

Collections

World Bank Policy Research Working Papers

Metadata

JSON

Created on

Oct 13, 2025

Last modified

Oct 13, 2025

Overview

Abstract

This paper utilizes the unique dynamics of fiscal budgeting in countries with a large hydrocarbon sector to estimate fiscal multipliers. The main identifying assumption rests on the idea that exogenously identified global hydrocarbon demand shocks can be considered plausible instruments for the fiscal space of countries in which that space is significantly dictated by hydrocarbon income, with such shocks being uncorrelated with non-hydrocarbon output at the same time. Using a local projection-instrumental variables (LP-IV) framework, the paper estimates that short-run fiscal expenditure multipliers to be in the ballpark of 0.1-0.4. In addition, we find that multipliers are at the upper end of this interval during recessions, indicating thatfiscal policy in the Gulf countries is particularly effective during economic downturns.

Reproducibility Package

Scripts

Readme Get Reproducibility Package

Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/365/download/1038/README.pdf

Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries

File name

RR_ASI_2025_413

Zip package

RR_ASI_2025_413.zip

Title

Reproducibility package for Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries

Date

2025-09

Dependencies

R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.

Instructions

See README in reproducibility package.

Notes

Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.

Source code repository

Repository name	URI
Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank)	https://reproducibility.worldbank.org

Software

Name

Version

4.4.1

Stata

Name

Stata

Version

18.5

MatLab

Name

MatLab

Version

2024 b

Reproducibility

Technology environment

Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: Processor INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+, 2800 Mhz, 16 Core(s), 16 Logical Pro-
cessor(s)
• Memory available: 87 GB

Technology requirements

~ 3 hours run time

Reproduction instructions

To reproduce the results, a new user should follow these steps:

Change the file path in the master_GCC_FM do-file.
- This main do-file includes an option to run the data cleaning process.
- To run the full data cleaning, you would need to download the X13-ARIMASEATS routine from the US Census Bureau and follow the instructions in the README file.
- Since the intermediate data is already included in the package, this step is optional. You can skip data cleaning and directly run the rest of the code.
- By default, the data cleaning option is set to "not run."
- After updating the path, run master_GCC_FM.
Change the file path and run the MATLAB script plots_main.

Note: Some of the data used in the appendix is restricted and therefore prevents the appendix scripts from executing successfully. As a result, users will not be able to run and reproduce the exhibits in the appendix. However, the corresponding scripts are included for completeness and transparency — specifically, plots_appendix.m and gcc_specific_plots.R. In addition, the figures produced by the replicators are included in the reproducibility package so that users can compare them directly with the exhibits published in the paper.

Data

Datasets

Global Macro Database

Name

Global Macro Database

Note

File location: DATADIR/GMD_Mar2025.dta. Access date: 03-2025.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)

License URL

https://www.globalmacrodata.com/index.html

Data URL

https://www.globalmacrodata.com/data.html

Citation

Müller, Karsten, Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib, and Ziliang Chen. 2025. The Global Macro Database: A New International Macroeconomic Dataset. Working Paper No. 33714. National Bureau of Economic Research. April. https://doi.org/10.3386/w33714

Oil Supply News Shocks

Name

Oil Supply News Shocks

Note

File location: Novel_data/Kanzig_oilSupplyNewsShocks_2024M06.xlsx, Novel_data/Kanzig_oilSupplyNewsShocks_annual.dta, Novel_data/Kanzig_oilSupplyNewsShocks.dta. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

Data URL

https://github.com/dkaenzig/oilsupplynews

Citation

Känzig, Diego R. 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Supply News: Evidence from OPEC Announcements." American Economic Review 111 (4): 1092–1125.

Oil Demand Shocks

Name

Oil Demand Shocks

Note

File location: BaumeisterHamilton_OilDemandShocks.xlsx. Access date: December 2024. Please note that the data has been updated since the authors’ original analysis. If you download the dataset directly now, the numbers may differ from those used in the paper, which could result in different outcomes when running the code. However, the exact version of the dataset used by the authors is included in the reproducibility package to ensure consistent replication of results.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

Data URL

https://drive.google.com/uc?export=download&id=1neFXLrIvGwggebQRwjmtrWK-dfQZ9NH8

Citation

Baumeister, C. and J.D. Hamilton. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, 109(5), May 2019, 1873-1910.

Global Commodity Shocks

Name

Global Commodity Shocks

Note

The dataset is updated monthly and does not have a version history. As a result, if you download the data directly now, the values may differ from those originally used in the paper, which could lead to changes in the results. To ensure consistency, the exact version of the data used for this analysis is included in the reproducibility package. Files location: Novel_data/Kilian_IndexGlobalRealEcoActivity.dta; Novel_data/Kilian_IndexGlobalRealEcoActivity.xlsx; Novel_data/Kilian_IndexGlobalRealEcoActivity_annual.dta. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

Data URL

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/igrea

Citation

Kilian, L., & Zhou, X. (2018). Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities. Journal of International Money and Finance, 88, 54–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.07.001

International Financial Statistics

Name

International Financial Statistics

Note

File location: IMF_IFS/IMF_IFS_2024.xlsx, Bahrain_Forex.xlsx, Kuwait_Forex.xlsx, Oman_Forex.xlsx, Qatar_Forex.xlsx, Saudi_Forex.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_Forex.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_Forex_fromxml.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_CPI_200819.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_IntRate.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_GovtOps.xlsx, Novel_data/UAE/UAE_CentrGovtOps.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_CB.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License URL

https://www.imf.org/en/About/copyright-and-terms#data

Data URL

https://data.imf.org/en/news/accessing%20international%20financial%20statistics

Citation

International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2024. International Financial Statistics (December 2024).

Population Statistics

Name

Population Statistics

Note

Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http://gccstat.org. File location: Novel_data/from GCCSTAT/Population_GulfStat.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use

License URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/terms-use

Data URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/search/type/dataset

Energy Database

Name

Energy Database

Note

Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http://gccstat.org. Energy database, Hydrocarbon production. File location: Novel_data/from GCCSTAT/DF_GEETS_ENR.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use

License URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/terms-use

Data URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/dataset/energy/resource/5ac6177a-1059-4f13-8899-cfd0d11585be

World Development Indicators

Name

World Development Indicators

Note

Files location: Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_Debt2017.xlsx Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

License URL

https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets

Data URL

https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

Citation

World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators (WDI) [Data set]. World Bank. Retrieved December 2024.

International Trade in Goods

Name

International Trade in Goods

Note

Files location: Novel_data/Kuwait/Kuwait_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data/Bahrain/Bahrain_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data/Oman/Oman_ExIm.xlsx; Novel_data/Qatar/Qatar_ExIm.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License URL

https://www.imf.org/en/About/copyright-and-terms#data

Data URL

https://data.imf.org/en/Data-Explorer?datasetUrn=IMF.STA:IMTS(1.0.0)&INDICATOR=XG_FOB_USD

Citation

International Monetary Fund. International Trade in Goods (by partner country), https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.STA:IMTS. Accessed on December 2024.

Financial Indicators Dataset

Name

Financial Indicators Dataset

Note

Source: Haver Analytics. File location: Novel_data/data_Xinyue.xlsx. Access Date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is restricted and is not included in the reproducibility package

Labour Database

Name

Labour Database

Note

Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http://gccstat.org. Labour database, Labour force data. File location: Novel_data/from GCCSTAT/DF_PSS_LAB.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use

License URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/terms-use

Data URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/dataset/labour

Sales of Oil & Gas Products

Name

Sales of Oil & Gas Products

Note

Source: Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC), United Arab Emirates. (2025). Files location: Novel_data/UAE/UAE_Regions_OilGas.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024. The original data access is blocked, so the replicators were unable to open the link directly. However, since the Ministry operates under an open data policy (CC BY 4.0), the dataset has been included in the reproducibility package to ensure full reproducibility.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

License URL

https://uaestat.fcsc.gov.ae/Terms&Conditions_en

Data URL

https://uaestat-fcsc-gov-ae.webpkgcache.com/doc/-/s/uaestat.fcsc.gov.ae/vis?lc=en&fs%5B0%5D=FCSC+-+Statistical+Hierarchy,0%7COil+and+Gas%23ENG_OG%23&pg=0&fc=FCSC+-+Statistical+Hierarchy&snb=10&df%5Bds%5D=FCSC-RDS&df%5Bid%5D=DF_OG&df%5Bag%5D=FCSA&df%5Bvs%5D=4.1.0&pd=2015,2020&dq=.A..........&to%5BTIME_PERIOD%5D=false&ly%5Brw%5D=TIME_PERIOD&ly%5Bcl%5D=OG_PRODUCT&ly%5Brs%5D=REF_AREA

Debt Securities Statistics

Name

Debt Securities Statistics

Note

Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). Debt Securities Statistics. Files location: Novel_data/Kuwait/BIS_DebtStats_Kuwait.xlsx, Novel_data/Oman/BIS_DebtStats_Oman.xlsx, Novel_data/Qatar/BIS_DebtStats_Qatar.xlsx, Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Bis_DebtStats_Saudi.xlsx, Novel_data/Qatar/BIS_DebtStats_Qatar.xlsx, Novel_data/UAE/BIS_DebtStats_UAE.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available, but does not allow redistribution

License URL

https://www.bis.org/terms_conditions.htm#Copyright_and_Permissions

Data URL

https://data.bis.org/topics/DSS

Consumer Price Indicators

Name

Consumer Price Indicators

Note

Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). Consumer prices. Files location: Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_CPI.xlsx; Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_CPI_granular.xlsx, Novel_data/Kuwait/Kuwait_CPI.xlsx Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available, but does not allow redistribution

License URL

https://www.bis.org/terms_conditions.htm#Copyright_and_Permissions

Data URL

https://data.bis.org/topics/CPI/BIS,WS_LONG_CPI,1.0/M.SA.628, https://data.bis.org/topics/CPI/data?data_view=table&filter=FREQ%3DA%257CM%255EUNIT_MEASURE%3D628%255EREF_AREA_TXT%3DKuwait%255ETIMESPAN%3D1660-12-31_2024-11-30

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Bahrain

Name

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Bahrain

Note

Source: Bahrain Open Data Portal. 2024. Quarterly National Accounts Data. Files location: ORIGDIR/Novel_data/Bahrain_GDP_const_price.xlsx, Bahrain_GDP_curr_price.xlsx, Bahrain_GDP_curr_price_decomp.xlsx. Bahrain.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

Bahrain Open Data Portal Terms and Conditions

License URL

https://www.data.gov.bh/pages/terms-and-conditions/

Data URL

https://www.data.gov.bh/explore/?disjunctive.theme&sort=modified&refine.theme=National+Accounts+-+Quarterly

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Kuwait

Name

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Kuwait

Note

Source: National Centre for Statistics and Information. Files location: ORIGDIR/Novel_data/Kuwait.xlsx; Novel_data/Kuwait/GDP_estimates_at_current_and_constant_prices_(time_series)_Quarterly.xlsx; Novel_data/Kuwait/Kuwait_GDP.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

Data URL

https://www.csb.gov.kw/Pages/Statistics_en?ID=80, https://www.ceicdata.com/en/kuwait/government-revenue-and-expenditure/government-revenue-ytd

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Oman

Name

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Oman

Note

Files location: Novel_data/Oman/Oman_StatData.xlsx; Novel_data/Oman/Oman_StatData_Monetary.xlsx; Novel_data/Oman/Oman_StatData_PublicFinance.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

OPEN GOVERNMENT DATA POLICY

License URL

https://knoema-thumbnails.s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/production/KFM/doc/omandata/OPEN%20GOVERNMENT%20DATA%20POLICY.pdf

Data URL

https://data.gov.om/zoangf/national-accounts, https://data.gov.om/search?query=National%20accounts

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Qatar

Name

Quarterly National Accounts Data - Qatar

Note

Source: Government of Qatar. Open Data Portal. Files location: ORIGDIR/Novel_data/Qatar.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

Open Data Licensing Policy

License URL

https://www.data.gov.qa/pages/license/annexes

Data URL

https://www.data.gov.qa/explore/?disjunctive.theme&disjunctive.features&disjunctive.modified&disjunctive.publisher&sort=modified

Economic Statistics - Saudi Arabia

Name

Economic Statistics - Saudi Arabia

Note

Source: General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT), Saudi Arabia, Economic Statistics. Files location: Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_InternationalTrade.xlsx; Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_IndustrialProduction.xlsx; Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_GDP.xlsx; Novel_data/Saudi-Arabia/Saudi_GDP2.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

GASTAT Use Policy

License URL

https://www.stats.gov.sa/en/use-policy

Data URL

https://www.stats.gov.sa/en/statistics?index=119021

Quarterly National Accounts Data - United Arab Emirates

Name

Quarterly National Accounts Data - United Arab Emirates

Note

Source: GCC-Statistical Centre, Sultanate of Oman http://gccstat.org. File location: Novel_data/from GCCSTAT/DF_ES_NA(1).xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_MonetaryAggregate.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_GDP.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_GDP_201218.xlsx; Novel_data/UAE/UAE_GDP_fromxml.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

GCC-Statistical Centre Terms of use

License URL

https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/terms-use

Data URL

https://sdmx.marsa.gccstat.org/FusionRegistry/ws/public/sdmxapi/rest/data/GCCSTAT.ES,DF_ES_NA,1.0/all/all/?labels=name&format=excel; https://dp.marsa.gccstat.org/search/type/dataset

Interest Rates Data - Kuwait

Name

Interest Rates Data - Kuwait

Note

Source: Central Bank of Kuwait. Files location: Novel_data/Kuwait/cbk-inr-excel-155265_v450_tcm10-155265.xlsx; Novel_data/Kuwait/Kuwait_CB_PolicyRate.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License URL

https://www.cbk.gov.kw/en/footer/disclaimer

Data URL

https://www.cbk.gov.kw/en/statistics-and-publication/dynamic-statistical-releases/monthly

Public Finance Data - Oman

Name

Public Finance Data - Oman

Note

Source: National Centre for Statistics and Information. Files location: Novel_data/Oman/Oman_AnnualPublicFinance.xlsx. Access date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package

License

Open Data Policy

License URL

https://data.gov.om/legal/termsofuse

Data URL

https://www.finance.gov.mv/publications/reports-and-analyses/quarterly-debt-bulletin and https://data.gov.om/OMPBFNC2016/public-finance

Interest Rates Data - Bahrain

Name

Interest Rates Data - Bahrain

Note

Source: Bloomberg Terminal. File location: Novel_data/Bahrain/Bahrain_InterestRates.xlsx. Access Date: 12-2024.

Access policy

Data is restricted and is not included in the reproducibility package

Data URL

https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/products/bloomberg-terminal/

Data statement

Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

Description

Output

Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries

Type

Working Paper

Title

Fiscal Multipliers In Resource-Rich Economies: Evidence From The Gulf Countries

Description

Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP) 11193

URL

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099531408202540298

Authors

Author	Affiliation	Email
Muhammad Khudadd Chattha	The World Bank	mchattha@worldbank.org
Tobias Kawalec	University of Oxford	tobias.kawalec@economics.ox.ac.uk

Date of production

2025-09-11

Scope and coverage

Geographic locations

Location	Code
Asia	ASI

Keywords

Fiscal Multipliers Fiscal Policy

Topics

ID	Topic	Parent topic ID	Vocabulary	Vocabulary URI
E62	Fiscal Policy • Modern Monetary Theory	E6	Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
H60	General	H6	Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

Disclaimer

The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

Access and rights

License

Name	URI
Modified BSD3	https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

Contacts

Name	Affiliation	Email
Muhammad Khudadd Chattha	The World Bank	mchattha@worldbank.org
Reproducibility WBG	World Bank	reproducibility@worldbank.org

Information on metadata

Producers

Name	Abbreviation	Affiliation	Role
Reproducibility WBG	DECDI	World Bank - Development Impact Department	Verification and preparation of metadata

Date of Production

2025-09-11

Document version

Citation

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