Reproducibility package for Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidence
Overview
The European Commission’s “NextGenerationEU” COVID-19 recovery package has underscored interest in the size of regional fiscal multipliers in Europe. While the objective of EU funds is generally the long-term transformation and growth of EU economies, several recent papers have estimated large short-term regional multipliers on historical EU structural and investment fund spending. This paper reevaluates the evidence by estimating relative regional short-term multipliers using recent data on EU fund spending at the subnational (NUTS2) level and a leave-one out predicted disbursement schedule instrument. In contrast with much of the recent literature, we find little evidence of large relative GDP multipliers. While investment responds strongly to EU funds, often increasing euro for euro, we also find suggestive evidence of crowding out of other government consumption.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (4 processors)
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Run time: ~ 10 minutes
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See subsection Datasets and the README for more details.
- Download and Place Data: Once the data is accessed, users should place it in the appropriate folder.
- Run the Package: After placing the data in the folder, run the files in the order:
- Open the R project "EUFundMultipliersReplicationFile" and run the script code_NUTS.
- Update the global in line 6 of the do-file "Master" to your folder's location and run the analysis code.
Since all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Federico Fiuratti | World Bank | federicofiuratti@gmail.com |
| Desislava Nikolova | World Bank | dnikolova@worldbank.org |
| Steven Pennings | World Bank | spennings@worldbank.org |
| Marc Schiffbauer | World Bank | mschiffbauer@worldbank.org |
2025-10-16
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| European Union | EUU |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Pennings | World Bank | spennings@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2025-10-16
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