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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Assessing The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Stochastic Climate Shocks In Paraguay

2025
Get Reproducibility Package
Reference ID
RR_PRY_2025_470
Author(s)
Pui Shen Yoong, Heather Ruberl, Diego Castillo, Brent Boehlert
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Nov 03, 2025
Last modified
Nov 10, 2025
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of climate shocks on Paraguay, a small and open agriculture exporter that is highly exposed to droughts and floods. Utilizing a modified version of the World Bank’s Macro-Fiscal Model (MFMod), we integrate stochastic climate shocks drawn from external biophysical models to assess the impacts of extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods on agriculture and livestock production and on labor productivity in Paraguay. Our findings reveal significant vulnerabilities in agricultural outputs and exports across a range of varying climate scenarios. We present a comprehensive analysis across different climate scenarios ranging from mild to severe and quantify the range of potential impacts on key economic indicators.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_PRY_2025_470
    Zip package
    RR_PRY_2025_470.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Assessing The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Stochastic Climate Shocks In Paraguay
    Date
    2025-11
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Excel
    Name
    Eviews
    Version
    14

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: 11th Gen Intel(R) Core(TM) i3-1115G4 @ 3.00GHz
    • Memory available: 7 GB
    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 20 minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings, run the following scripts:

    1. Run 0_construct_shocks.prg
    2. Run 0_run_shocks.prg
    3. Run 0_droughts_irfs.prg
      This will generate all climate shocks, simulations, and figures needed to replicate the results.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 Flood Hazard Data
    Note
    Located at: Data/IEC/GAR15_flooding.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package
    Data URL
    https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2015
    Citation
    United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 (GAR15). https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-assessment-report-disaster-risk-reduction-2015. Access date: 1-Aug-2024.
    Name
    Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Data
    Note
    Located at: Data/IEC/GAR15_flooding.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/paraguay/climate-data-projections
    Citation
    World Bank. (2024). Climate Change Knowledge Portal [dataset]: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/paraguay/climate-data-projections. Access date: 1-Aug-2024.
    Name
    Sectoral Climate Impact Estimates
    Note
    Files are located at: Data/IEC/PRY_CDFS.xlsx. This dataset contains impact estimates prepared by the Industrial Economics team. It includes modeled impacts under a no-climate-change reference scenario (“all hindcast”) as well as the top and bottom 10 Global Climate Model runs (ranked by average impacts) for the following sectors: Rainfed crop yields; Livestock yields; Agriculture labor productivity; Industry labor productivity; Services labor productivity; The authors compiled this dataset from proprietary Industrial Economics data. The aggregated data needed to run and reproduce the package are included in the reproducibility package. For more information about the original data, users may contact Industrial Economics, Inc. (Diego Castillo, dcastillo@indecon.com; Brent Boehlert, bboehlert@indecon.com).
    Access policy
    Original data is restricted, but intermediate data is included in the reproducibility package
    Citation
    Industrial Economics. (2024). "Sectoral Climate Impact Estimates [dataset]". Access date: Nov 2024.
    Data statement

    Some of the underlying datasets are restricted and therefore cannot be included in the reproducibility package. The analysis begins from the intermediate datasets directly processed and provided by the authors, and all such intermediate data required to fully reproduce the findings are included in the package. Please refer to the README file for detailed information on data sources and processing.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Assessing The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Stochastic Climate Shocks In Paraguay
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Pui Shen Yoong World Bank psyoong@worldbank.org
    Heather Ruberl World Bank heather.ruberl@gmail.com
    Diego Castillo Industrial Economics dcastillo@indecon.com
    Brent Boehlert Industrial Economics bboehlert@indecon.com
    Date of production

    2025-11-03

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Paraguay PRY
    Keywords
    Paraguay Macro-Structural Model Economic Modeling Droughts Floods Heatwaves Climate Change
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    C10 General C1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C50 General C5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    E37 Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications E3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q54 Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Pui Shen Yoong World Bank psyoong@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2025-11-03
    Document version

    1
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