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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Labor Demand In The Shadow Of Generative Ai: Evidence From The U.S. Job Market

2025
Reference ID
RR_USA_2025_436
Author(s)
Yan Liu, Shu Yu, He Wang
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Nov 18, 2025
Last modified
Nov 18, 2025
  • Project Description
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Overview

    Abstract

    NOTE: THE REPRODUCIBILITY REVIEW FOR THIS PACKAGE IS IN PROGRESS.

    This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, this paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate GenAI's job displacement effects. Our identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low AI-substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT's launch, conditioning on similar GenAI exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. Using 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast, we find that between late 2022 and June 2025, the number of postings for occupations with above-median AI-substitution scores fell by an average of 12\% relative to those with below-median scores. The effect intensified over time, rising from 6\% in the first year after the launch to 18\% by the third year. The impact was particularly pronounced for entry-level positions requiring neither advanced degrees nor extensive experience, with administrative support and professional services sectors experiencing the largest reductions in job postings.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Reproducibility package for Labor Demand In The Shadow Of Generative Ai: Evidence From The U.s. Job Market
    File name
    RR_USA_2025_436
    Zip package
    RR_USA_2025_436.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Labor Demand In The Shadow Of Generative Ai: Evidence From The U.s. Job Market
    Date
    2025-11
    Dependencies
    R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    R
    Name
    R

    Data

    Data statement

    All data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. (Limited-access/Restricted Data)

    Description

    Output
    Labor Demand In The Shadow Of Generative Ai: Evidence From The U.s. Job Market
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Labor Demand In The Shadow Of Generative Ai: Evidence From The U.s. Job Market
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Yan Liu World Bank Group yanliu@worldbank.org
    Shu Yu World Bank Group syu2@worldbank.org
    He Wang World Bank Group hwang21@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2025-11-18

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    United States of America USA
    Keywords
    Generative Artificial Intelligence Technology Adoption Labor Demand Online Job Postings
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences • Diffusion Processes O3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J23 Labor Demand J2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    J21 Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure J2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Yan Liu World Bank Group yanliu@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2025-11-18

    Document version

    1

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