NOTE: THE REPRODUCIBILITY REVIEW FOR THIS PACKAGE IS IN PROGRESS.
This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, this paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate GenAI's job displacement effects. Our identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low AI-substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT's launch, conditioning on similar GenAI exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. Using 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast, we find that between late 2022 and June 2025, the number of postings for occupations with above-median AI-substitution scores fell by an average of 12\% relative to those with below-median scores. The effect intensified over time, rising from 6\% in the first year after the launch to 18\% by the third year. The impact was particularly pronounced for entry-level positions requiring neither advanced degrees nor extensive experience, with administrative support and professional services sectors experiencing the largest reductions in job postings.
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
All data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file. (Limited-access/Restricted Data)
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Yan Liu | World Bank Group | yanliu@worldbank.org |
| Shu Yu | World Bank Group | syu2@worldbank.org |
| He Wang | World Bank Group | hwang21@worldbank.org |
2025-11-18
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| United States of America | USA |
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Yan Liu | World Bank Group | yanliu@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2025-11-18
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