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Reproducibility package for Expanding pension coverage to the informal sector: the case of Viet Nam

2025
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Reference ID
RR_VNM_2024_237
Author(s)
Trang Luu, Nga Thi Nguyen, Robert Palacios
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Dec 12, 2025
Last modified
Dec 23, 2025
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Viet Nam is a middle-income country that is aging rapidly in the context of low pension system coverage. Recently, the government has set ambitious targets to remedy this situation so that sixty percent of the labor force is contributing to a pension scheme by 2030. In addition to expanding the categories of workers that are mandated to contribute, it will be important that coverage of the voluntary pension scheme for informal sector workers increases dramatically if the country is to meet this objective. This study analyses the impact of matching contributions to this scheme to date in order to estimate the potential impact of increased incentives that are currently being considered.
    The analysis takes advantage of variation of these incentives as well as other characteristics across provinces and different timing of implementation over time. The results suggest that increasing the matching contribution to around half of the total contribution could triple the number of contributors at a cost of less than 0.1 percent of GDP. However, while the matching contribution appears to have a major impact, the regression results reveal that other factors not included here are at work. Survey results support this conclusion and suggest that improvements to communication and outreach could help increase participation further.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_2024_VNM_237
    Zip package
    RR_2024_VNM_237.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Expanding pension coverage to the informal sector: the case of Viet Nam
    Date
    2025-12
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18.5 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:
    – OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    – Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-1145G7 CPU @ 2.60GHz
    – Memory available: 15.7 GB
    – Software version: Stata version 18.5 MP
    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 5 minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a new user should:

    1. Open the main.do file.
    2. Update the file path in line 20 to point to your local directory.
    3. Run the script.

    Please note that most of the underlying data is restricted and, therefore, the full code cannot be executed by external users. For transparency, the replicators’ outputs are included in the Outputs folder. Interested users can compare these results against the figures and tables in the published paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Vietnam Labor Force Survey
    Note
    Files location: Data/Raw/LFS_2021.dta. The underlying data might be obtained by contacting the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO). Variables needed are in the README file.
    Access policy
    Data are restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
    Data URL
    https://www.nso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2023/03/report-on-labour-force-survey-2021/
    Citation
    General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2021). Labor Force Survey (LFS) [dataset].
    Name
    Social Insurance Administrative Data
    Note
    Files location: Data/Raw/V2.0 TK_BHXH TN_WB_2017-22 consolidated.xlsx; variables include: Birth Year, Gender, Province, Year and Month, Poverty Status, Number of Contributors, Average Monthly Income, Number of New Participants, Contribution Amount (in billion VND), Number of Contributors (in 1000s) — Column F/1000, Year, Quarter, and Individual Contribution Amount (22% of income). Files location: Data/Raw/Monthly data_2023_2024.xlsx, which contains mandatory and voluntary contributors. The data was obtained from the Vietnam Social Security; replicators may contact them for access. This information was used by the authors to construct Figures 1–3 manually. The aggregated values and resulting figures are available at: Outputs/main/figures/VSIF_figure1_2_3.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data are restricted and not included in the reproducibility package
    Citation
    Vietnam Social Security. (2024). Social Insurance Administrative Data [dataset].
    Name
    Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index
    Note
    Files location: Data/Raw/2022PAPI_ProvincialIndicators_BangChiTieuCapTinh.xlsx. Direct download: https://papi.org.vn/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2022PAPI_ProvincialIndicators_BangChiTieuCapTinh-2.xlsx
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Direct download; licensing information not available
    Data URL
    https://papi.org.vn
    Citation
    Centre for Community Support and Development Studies (CECODES); United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); Real-Time Analytics (RTA). (2023). Provincial Governance and Public Administration Performance Index (PAPI) [dataset]. https://papi.org.vn.
    Name
    Province-level Income and Poverty Index
    Note
    Files location: Data/Raw/GSO_income_pc.xlsx; Data/Raw/MOLISA_poverty.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data are publicly available and included in the reproducibility package
    License
    Direct download; licensing information not available
    Data URL
    https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2022/08/statistical-yearbook-of-2021/
    Citation
    General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2022). Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam [dataset]. https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/data-and-statistics/2022/08/statistical-yearbook-of-2021/.
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Expanding pension coverage to the informal sector: the case of Viet Nam
    Description
    Working Paper
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Trang Luu World Bank luu.ht@hotmail.com
    Nga Thi Nguyen World Bank nnguyen26@worldbank.org
    Robert Palacios World Bank rpalacios@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2025-12-09

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Viet Nam VNM

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Nga Thi Nguyen World Bank nnguyen26@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2025-12-09
    Document version

    1
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