Reproducibility package for Evaluating Paraguay’s Vulnerability To The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation
Reference ID
RR_PRY_2025_514
Author(s)
José-Daniel Reyes, Mariana Conte Grand, Pui Shen Yoong, Nicolás Borchers Arriagada, Luis Diego Rojas Alvarado
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Jan 07, 2026
Last modified
Jan 12, 2026
Overview
Abstract
This paper examines Paraguay’s vulnerability to the European Union’s Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR). Drawing on trade data, customs firm-level data, and high-resolution geospatial analysis, it assesses exposure at the country, firm, and geographic levels. The results show that Paraguay’s direct export exposure to the EUDR is modest, but indirect exposure through Argentina’s soy value chain could affect up to 13 percent of its exports. Firm-level evidence indicates that soy and rubber exports are concentrated among a few large firms, whereas the emerging wood and forestry sector is fragmented across small and medium-sized enterprises with limited capacity to absorb compliance costs. Geospatial analysis suggests that only 0.4%–2% of soybean areas may be at risk of non-compliance, concentrated in Itapúa, San Pedro, and Alto Paraná. Overall, Paraguay’s vulnerability stems primarily from indirect value-chain linkages, underscoring the need for targeted support and regional coordination within MERCOSUR to strengthen environmental governance.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
File name
RR_PRY_2025_514
Zip package
RR_PRY_2025_514.zip
Title
Reproducibility package for Evaluating Paraguay’s Vulnerability To The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation
Date
2025-12
Dependencies
R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
Instructions
See README in reproducibility package.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Technology requirements
Runtime: 4 hours
Reproduction instructions
To reproduce the findings in this study, please follow the steps below:
- Some datasets are restricted and require special permissions. Please refer to the
READMEfile for detailed instructions on data access. - Run the following dofile in Stata:
00-main-Figs17_Table1.do
- Open the R project
Reproducibility_Package.Rprojand run the following scripts in order:00-main-Fig8_Tables45.r5_calculate_GLAD_soybean_Paraguay_2001_2023.r6_calculate_INFONA_soybean_Paraguay_2022.r7_calculate_MapBiomas_forest_Paraguay_2020.r8_calculate_JRC_forest_Paraguay_2020.r
- Outputs will be generated in the
/Resultsand/Graphsfolders.
Because the restricted datasets are not included in the package, the/Resultsfolder contains outputs produced by the authors. These files can be used to review and verify the results presented in the paper.
Data
Datasets
Name
World Integrated Trade Solution Data
Note
Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)
Data was accessed through a query on the UN COMTRADE database executed through World Integrated Trade Solution (https://wits.worldbank.org/). The README contains more information on how to reproduce the exact query.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution.
License URL
https://comtrade.un.org/licenseagreement.html
Data URL
https://wits.worldbank.org/
Citation
World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS). Accessed January 5, 2026. https://wits.worldbank.org/faqs.html#Databases
Name
Classifications on economic statistics
Note
Source: United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD)
Filenames: HSCodeandDescription.xlsx, HS2022toHS1992ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS1996ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2002ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2007ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2012ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx, HS2022toHS2017ConversionAndCorrelationTables.xlsx
Authors downloaded this data in November 2024. Users must download these files from the UNSD classifications URL below. See README for details.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution.
License URL
https://www.un.org/en/about-us/terms-of-use
Data URL
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/classifications/Econ
Citation
United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). 2025. "Classifications on economic statistics [dataset]," https://unstats.un.org/unsd/classifications/Econ.
Name
Export data for Paraguay
Note
Source: National Directorate of Tax Revenue (DNIT)
The original data vintage was downloaded by the authors in late 2023. The data is no longer publicly available, as firm identifiers are no longer published. For access inquiries, please contact Ana Margarida Fernandes (afernandes@worldbank.org) and Daniel Reyes (danielreyes@worldbank.org)
Access policy
Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package
Data URL
https://www.dnit.gov.py/web/portal-institucional/datos-abiertos
Name
Global Forest Cover Data
Note
Source: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License URL
https://land.copernicus.eu/en/data-policy
Data URL
https://forobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/GFC#data_download
Citation
Bourgoin, Clement; Verhegghen, Astrid; Ameztoy, Iban; Carboni, Silvia; Achard, Frederic; Colditz, Rene (2025): Global map of forest cover 2020 - version 3. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset] PID: http://data.europa.eu/89h/8c561543-31df-4e1b-9994-e529afecaf54
Name
Paraguay Forest Cover Data
Note
Source: MapBiomas
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC-BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://paraguay.mapbiomas.org/
Citation
MapBiomas Paraguay. 2023. "MapBiomas Paraguay Collection 2 - Annual Series of Land Cover and Land Use Maps (1985-2023)." MapBiomas. Accessed January 5, 2026. https://paraguay.mapbiomas.org/
Name
Soybean Cover Data
Note
Source: Global Land Analysis & Discovery (GLAD)
Access policy
Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package due to file size constraints.
License
Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY).
License URL
https://registry.opendata.aws/glad-landsat-ard/
Data URL
https://glad.umd.edu/projects/commodity-crop-mapping-and-monitoring-south-america
Citation
X.-P. Song, M.C. Hansen, P. Potapov, B. Adusei, J. Pickering, M. Adami, A. Lima, V. Zalles, S.V. Stehman, C.M. Di Bella, C.M. Cecilia, E.J. Copati, L.B. Fernandes, A. Hernandez-Serna, S.M. Jantz, A.H. Pickens, S. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina (2021). Massive soybean expansion in South America since 2000 and implications for conservation. Nature Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00729-z
Name
Soybean Planting Area, Production and Yield
Note
Source: Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters and Marketers of Cereals and Oilseeds “CAPECO”
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://capeco.org.py/area-de-siembra-produccion-y-rendimiento/
Citation
Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters and Marketers of Cereals and Oilseeds (CAPECO). n.d. "Soybean Planting Area, Production and Yield [database]." https://capeco.org.py/area-de-siembra-produccion-y-rendimiento/.
Name
Paraguay Soybean Production
Note
Source: United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=PA&crop=Soybean
Citation
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, International Production Assessment Division (USDA FAS IPAD). n.d. "Paraguay Soybean Area, Yield and Production [database]." Crop Explorer Country Summary. https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=PA&crop=Soybean.
Name
Administrative Shape Files for Paraguay
Note
Source: Global Administrative Areas (GADM)
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0
License URL
https://gadm.org/license.html
Data URL
https://gadm.org/download_country.html
Citation
Global Administrative Areas (GADM). "Administrative Shape Files for Paraguay [dataset]," https://gadm.org/data.html, 2025
Description
Output
Type
Working Paper
Title
Evaluating Paraguay’s Vulnerability To The EU Deforestation-Free Regulation
Description
Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| José-Daniel Reyes | World Bank | danielreyes@worldbank.org |
| Mariana Conte Grand | World Bank | mcontegrand@worldbank.org |
| Pui Shen Yoong | World Bank | psyoong@worldbank.org |
| Nicolás Borchers Arriagada | University of Tasmania | nicolas.borchers@gmail.com |
| Luis Diego Rojas Alvarado | World Bank | lrojasalvarado@worldbank.org |
Date of production
2025-12-18
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Paraguay | PRY |
Keywords
Trade Policy
Agriculture
Environment
Development
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| José-Daniel Reyes | World Bank | danielreyes@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2025-12-18
Document version
1