This paper examines how suppliers adjust their decarbonization choices when major customers obtain validated emission-reduction targets. Using global supplier--customer links matched to firm-level emissions and project-level data from voluntary carbon registries, the analysis shows that downstream climate pressure elicits both real and symbolic responses, but in systematically different ways across suppliers. On average, treated suppliers become more likely to adopt climate targets of their own. High-emission suppliers subsequently reduce their emission intensity relative to comparable firms, indicating meaningful operational adjustments. Low-emission suppliers, by contrast, do not further reduce emissions; instead, they expand their use of carbon credits, sharply increasing offset intensity as a lower-cost alternative to additional physical abatement. These offsets disproportionately originate from lower-rated projects, suggesting that increased demand does not translate into pressure for higher-quality credits. Overall, downstream climate commitments induce a sorting in decarbonization strategies: high-emission suppliers undertake substantive reductions, while low-emission suppliers rely more heavily on market-based mechanisms to meet customer expectations.
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (4 processors)
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Run time: ~75 minutes
All code and data files are temporarily embargoed by the authors and are expected to be made public in this repository in the future.
Since all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Some data is temporarily embargoed by the authors (expected to be made public in the future).
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Pedraza | World Bank | apedrazamorales@worldbank.org |
| Anne Beck | World Bank | abeck2@worldbank.org |
2026-01-08
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| World | WLD |
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| Modified BSD3 | https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/ |
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Alvaro Pedraza | World Bank | apedrazamorales@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
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