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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Stuck in a Conflict Trap: The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War

2023
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Reference ID
RR_CAF_2023_54-v01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/4aj2-9g66
Author(s)
Pierre Mandon, Vincent Nossek, Diderot Sandjong Tomi
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Dec 22, 2023
Last modified
Jan 21, 2024
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation

    • Overview

    Abstract

    This paper uses the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the civil war in the Central African Republic on the main socioeconomic indicators. Based on a donor pool of low-income countries, the paper builds a synthetic counterfactual to evaluate the magnitude of the socioeconomic impacts of the civil war. The results indicate that the civil war led to a significant drop in gross domestic product per capita (41.6 percent), nighttime light intensity (33.8 percent), industrial production (34.1 percent), manufacturing value added (33.7 percent), and the human asset index (20.2 percent), from 2013, which is considered as the starting point of the ongoing political and civil crisis.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Stuck in a Conflict Trap: The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War
    Date
    2023-12
    Software
    Stata
    Dependencies
    synth
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DIME) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced in a computer with the following specifications:

    • OS: Windows 10 Enterprise, version 21H2
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.9GHz
    • Memory available: 128 GB
    • Software version: Stata 18.0 MP
    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 10 minutes

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    World Development Indicators (WDI)
    Note
    Data on GDP per capita PPP, industrial value added, and manufacturing value added were obtained from this dataset
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Name
    Human Asset Index (HAI) from Feindouno and Goujon (2019)
    Note
    Dataset paper: Feindouno S, Goujon M. Human Assets Index: Insights from a Retrospective Series Analysis. Soc Indic Res. 2019;141(3):959–84.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available
    Data URL
    https://ferdi.fr/en/indicators/human-assets-index-hai
    Name
    Nighttime lights (NTLs) data from the Earth Observation Group, Colorado School of Mines
    Note
    We use the Version 4 DMSP-OLS Nighttime Lights Time Series for the data from 1992 to 2013 [2], combined with the DMSP Nighttime Lights Extension for the period 2014 to 2021 [3]. We extracted the sum of the NTL values within a buffer of 10 km radius drawn around the centroids of the capital cities of low-income countries. The extraction was done with the ArcGIS software. [2] Baugh, K., Elvidge, C. D., Ghosh, T., & Ziskin, D. (2010). Development of a 2009 stable lights product using DMSP-OLS data. Proceedings of the Asia-Pacific Advanced Network, 30(0), 114. [3] Ghosh, T.; Baugh, K.E.; Elvidge, C.D.; Zhizhin, M.; Poyda, A.; Hsu, F.-C. Extending the DMSP Nighttime Lights Time Series beyond 2013. Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 5004.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available
    Data URL
    https://payneinstitute.mines.edu/eog/
    Data statement

    All the data used is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working paper
    Title
    Stuck in a Conflict Trap: The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War
    Authors
    Pierre Mandon, Vincent Nossek, Diderot Sandjong Tomi
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP) 10624
    URL
    https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099817212042333118/idu08d62e24d0a9ef04f1d09ea60a9ee9a4e9b72
    DOI
    10.1596/1813-9450-10624
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Pierre Mandon World Bank pmandon@worldbank.org
    Vincent Nossek World Bank; CERDI, University Clermont Auvergne vnossek@worldbank.org
    Diderot Sandjong Tomi World Bank; University of Ottawa dsandjongtomi@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2023-12

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Central African Republic CAR
    Keywords
    Central African Republic Civil war Development trap Synthetic control method
    Topics
    ID Topic Vocabulary URI
    C31 Cross-Sectional Models • Spatial Models • Treatment Effect Models • Quantile Regressions • Social Interaction Models
    D74 Conflict • Conflict Resolution • Alliances • Revolutions
    O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Pierre Mandon World Bank pmandon@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    San Martin LESM World Bank Junior data scientist
    Date of Production

    2023-12
    Document version

    1

    Citation

    Citation
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