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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Using Remotely Sensed Data To Assess War-Induced Damage To Agricultural Cultivation: Evidence From Ukraine

2025
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Reference ID
RR_UKR_2025_411
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/c74b-g531
Author(s)
Daniel Ayalew Ali, Klaus Deininger, Nataliia Kussul, Guido Lemoine, Andrii Shelestov, Leonid Shumilo
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Sep 10, 2025
Last modified
Sep 10, 2025
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation

    • Overview

    Abstract

    We explore whether satellite imagery can be used to derive a measure of conflict-induced damage to estimate conflict-induced damage to agricultural production and compare results to those obtained using media-based conflict indicators widely used in the literature. To do so, we combine area for summer and winter crops from annual crop maps for 2019-24 with measures of conflict-related damage to agricultural land based on optical and thermal satellite sensors to estimate a difference in differences (DID) model in close to 10,000 Ukrainian village councils (VCs). Results point to large and persistent negative effects that spill over to conflict unaffected VCs. Predicted impact is three times larger, with a distinctly different distribution across key domains (e.g. territory controlled by Ukraine and Russia) using the preferred image-based as compared to a media-based indicator. We conclude that satellite imagery allows to define conflict incidence in ways that may be relevant to agricultural production and discuss implications for future research.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_UKR_2025_411
    Zip package
    RR_UKR_2025_411.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Using Remotely Sensed Data To Assess War-Induced Damage To Agricultural Cultivation: Evidence From Ukraine
    Date
    2025-09
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 128 GB
    • Software version: Stata 18.0 MP
    Technology requirements

    6 hour runtime
    Reproduction instructions
    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See subsection Datasets and the README for more details.
    2. Download and Place Data: Once the data is downloaded, users should place it in the appropriate folder.
    3. Run the Package: After placing the data in the folder:
      • Update the global in line 12 of the do-file "main" to your folder's location and run the do-file

    Since all the data is not included, the package includes the results produced by replicators in the Results folder. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Annual Crop Cover Data for Ukraine
    Note
    Source: Author-compiled. Annual crop maps for Ukraine (2019–2024) were generated using the machine learning methodology described in Kussul et al. (2025). Dataset forthcoming on the Development Data Hub (DDH). File location: DataManipulation\RawData\CropCover\area_VC_winter_summer_19022025.xlsx
    Access policy
    Data is forthcoming on Development Data Hub (DDH).
    Name
    Conflict-Induced Agricultural Damage Dataset in Ukraine
    Note
    Source: Author-compiled using hand-labeled Sentinel-2 imagery for field boundaries from Sinergise, following Kussul et al. (2023). Documentation is provided in the README. Dataset forthcoming on the Development Data Hub (DDH). File location: DataManipulation\RawData\Conflict_Damage\OnlyDamage_crop[year].xlsx; OnlyDamage_uncut[year].xlsx
    Access policy
    Data is forthcoming on Development Data Hub (DDH).
    Name
    Burned Agricultural Areas Dataset in Ukraine
    Note
    Source: Author-compiled using Sentinel-2 short-wave infrared bands and fire detection data from NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System. Methodology and generated datasets forthcoming on the Development Data Hub. File Location: DataManipulation\RawData\Conflict_Damage\BurnedWithoutDamage_crop[year].xlsx; BurnedWithoutDamage_uncut[year].xlsx
    Access policy
    Data is forthcoming on Development Data Hub (DDH).
    Name
    Conflict Indicators from Public Situational Reports in Ukraine
    Note
    Source: Author-compiled from daily situational reports published by local and regional military administrations, combined with administrative boundaries from the official Ukraine shapefile (ADMIN_3). By-weekly indicators were constructed at the village council level. Datasets forthcoming on the Development Data Hub (DDH). File location: DataManipulation\RawData\Conflict_Public\Damaged area (village councils) Period [xx].xlsx
    Access policy
    Data is forthcoming on Development Data Hub (DDH).
    Name
    Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) for Ukraine
    Note
    Source: Davies, S., Pettersson, T., Sollenberg, M., & Öberg, M. (2025). Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims. Journal of Peace Research, 62(4). Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013) Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50(4). Each UCDP event was linked to its village council by converting coordinates into point shapefiles and overlaying them on village boundaries. The resulting .dbf files are included in the reproducibility package. File Location: DataManipulation\RawData\UCDP\gedevents-2025-05-15.csv; ucdp_village.dbf
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0)
    Data URL
    https://ucdp.uu.se/country/369
    Name
    Daily Weather Data for Ukraine
    Note
    Source: Daily precipitation and minimum/maximum temperature at the rayon level, extracted from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System, which produces forecasts every six hours. Data were obtained using Google Earth Engine scripts linked in the README. File location: DataManipulation\RawData\Weather\precip_daily_Aug2018Dec2024.dta; Temp2m_daily_max_Aug2018Dec2024.dta; Temp2m_daily_min_Aug2018Dec2024.dta
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Name
    Administrative Codes for Ukraine at Village, Rayon, and Region Levels
    Note
    Source: Author complied official Ukrainian administrative codes at the village, rayon, and region levels, derived from shapefiles and situational reports. The resulting dataset is forthcoming on Development Data Hub (DDH). The underlying sources are (i) village codes extracted from the village shapefile (ADMIN_3.shp) available at https://github.com/justinelliotmeyers/official_ukraine_administrative_boundary_shapefile/ , and (ii) rayon and village codes generated by overlaying the village shapefile with a rayon shapefile from the State Service of Ukraine for Geodesy, Cartography and Cadastre, which was accessed through Ukrainian collaborators in 2018 and is confidential. To access this shapefile, please contact the authors. File location 1: DataManipulation\RawData\AdminCodes\occ_since2014.dta; rayon_vc_code.dta; region_cd.dta; vid_mapping.dta. File location 2: DataManipulation\RawData\GIS
    Access policy
    Data is forthcoming on Development Data Hub (DDH).
    Name
    Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
    Note
    Source: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). ACLED event data for Ukraine was retrieved on April 19, 2024 (covering January 1, 2018–April 19, 2024) and again on April 12, 2025 (covering April 12, 2022–April 11, 2025). As ACLED is a “living dataset” with weekly updates, future downloads may differ from the version used by the authors and may produce slightly different results. Each ACLED event was linked to its corresponding village council by converting coordinates into point shapefiles and overlaying them on village boundaries. The resulting .dbf files are not included in the package, as ACLED data cannot be redistributed. Please contact the author directly if access to these .dbf files. File location: DataManipulation\RawData\ACLED\2022-04-12-2025-04-18-Europe-Ukraine.csv; Ukraine_Black_Sea_2020_2024_Apr19.csv; ConflictID_2024_Apr19.dbf; ConflictID_2025_Apr11_v2.dbf
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution.
    License URL
    https://acleddata.com/terms-and-conditions
    Data URL
    https://acleddata.com/conflict-data/data-export-tool
    Data statement

    Some data is not yet publicly available but is expected to be made available through the World Bank Development Data Hub in the future.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Using Remotely Sensed Data To Assess War-Induced Damage To Agricultural Cultivation: Evidence From Ukraine
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Daniel Ayalew Ali World Bank dali1@worldbank.org
    Klaus Deininger World Bank kdeininger@worldbank.org
    Nataliia Kussul University of Maryland kussul@umd.edu
    Guido Lemoine Joint Research Center of the European Commission Guido.LEMOINE@ec.europa.eu
    Andrii Shelestov Igor Sigorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute andrii.shelestov@gmail.com
    Leonid Shumilo University of Maryland lshumilo@umd.edu
    Date of production

    2025-09-02

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Ukraine UKR
    Keywords
    Ukraine conflict/war food security agricultural production agricultural input and output markets
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary
    H56 National Security and War H5 JEL Classifications
    O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products O1 JEL Classifications
    Q10 Agriculture: General Q1 JEL Classifications
    R14 Land Use Patterns R1 JEL Classifications

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Daniel Ayalew Ali World Bank dali1@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2025-09-02
    Document version

    1

    Citation

    Citation
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