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Reproducibility package for The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_629
Author(s)
Arti Grover, Pierre-Louis Vezina
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Apr 24, 2026
Last modified
Apr 28, 2026
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    This paper examines how armed conflict affects the global allocation of foreign direct investment using monthly conflict fatality data matched with project-level greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) from 2010–2023. The presence of an armed conflict is associated with a decline in the number of greenfield projects (16.5%), FDI associated jobs (15.6%), the number of origin countries (12.4%), and the number of sectors (15.6%). The sensitivity of FDI to conflicts has intensified during 2020–2023, especially so for one-sided violence against civilians. Conflict fatalities that are geographically dispersed within a country are more strongly negatively correlated with FDI, while conflict in neighboring countries also deters FDI. Across sectors, we find that semiconductor and biotech investments are most sensitive to conflict, while sectors like coal, oil, & gas are less affected. A synthetic counterfactual analysis of Ukraine reveals that it lost approximately 10,000 jobs annually that were directly associated with FDI following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. These patterns quantify the role of conflict in perpetuating development traps and highlight the broader economic stakes it has for development policy.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_629
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_629.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data
    Date
    2026-04
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    18.0 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time: ~ 10 minutes.
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
    2. Run the Package:
      • Update the working directory in line 33 of the do-file "main", and run it.

    Since all the original data cannot be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    fDiMarkets Greenfield FDI Database
    Note
    Data accessed in March 2025. Variables used: project count, FDI-induced jobs, capital expenditure (CAPEX), origin and destination country, sector, and announcement date. Institutional access required. File location: data/FDI_Jan2003toJun2024_cleaned.dta.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License URL
    http://terms.ftspecialist.com/#tabContent4
    Data URL
    https://www.fdimarkets.com/
    Citation
    Financial Times. 2025. "fDiMarkets Greenfield FDI Database" [dataset]. https://www.fdimarkets.com/. Accessed March 2025.
    Name
    Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions Database
    Note
    Data accessed in 2023. Variables used: number of completed cross-border M&A deals, deal value, origin and destination country, and date of completion. Institutional access required. File location: data/ma1962_2022.dta.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License URL
    https://www.lseg.com/en/policies/website-terms-of-use
    Data URL
    https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics/financial-data/company-data
    Citation
    Refinitiv Eikon. 2023. "Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions" [dataset]. https://www.lseg.com/en/data-analytics/financial-data/company-data. Accessed 2023.
    Name
    UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED): Version 25.1
    Note
    Data accessed in 2025. Variables used: fatalities (best estimate), conflict type (state-based, non-state, one-sided), geographic coordinates, date of event, and country. File location: data/GEDEvent_v25_1.dta.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    CC BY 4.0
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/
    Citation
    (1) Davies, S., Pettersson, T., Sollenberg, M., & Öberg, M. (2025). Organized violence 1989–2024, and the challenges of identifying civilian victims. Journal of Peace Research, 62(4). (2) Sundberg, Ralph and Erik Melander (2013) Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50(4).
    Name
    PRIO-GRID Static and Yearly Variables
    Note
    Data accessed on January 29, 2026. Variables used: total land area, GW country code (2014), geographic coordinates of each grid cell, and country assignment per grid cell. Grid cell identifiers at 0.5° resolution used to compute geographic spread of conflict (share of cells affected; Herfindahl Index of fatality concentration). File location: data. Files: PRIO-GRID Static Variables - 2026-01-29.csv; PRIO-GRID Yearly Variables for 2014-2014 - 2026-01-29 (1).csv.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Open access
    License URL
    https://grid.prio.org/#/codebook
    Data URL
    https://grid.prio.org/#/download
    Citation
    Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Håvard Strand & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure. Journal of Peace Research, 49(2): 363-374. doi: 10.1177/0022343311431287
    Name
    Conflict Forecasts Dataset
    Note
    Data accessed in 2025. Variables used: 12-month ahead predicted probability of conflict onset for armed conflict, any violence, and intensity measure. File location: data/. Files: 12-2024_conflictforecast_ons_armedconf_12.csv; 12-2024_conflictforecast_ons_anyviolence_12.csv; 12-2024_conflictforecast_int_lnbest_12.csv.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License URL
    https://conflictforecast.org/terms-of-service
    Data URL
    https://conflictforecast.org/
    Citation
    Mueller, H., Rauh, C., and Seimon, B. 2024. "Introducing a global dataset on conflict forecasts and news topics." Data & Policy, volume 6. https://conflictforecast.org/. Accessed 2025.
    Name
    World Development Indicators
    Note
    Data accessed in 2025. Variables used: GDP at constant USD (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), GDP per capita at constant USD (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD), and total population (SP.POP.TOTL). File location: data/GDP_WDI.dta
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. 2025. "World Development Indicators" [dataset]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed in 2025.
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    The Impact Of Conflict On Foreign Investments: Evidence From Project-Level Data
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Arti Grover International Finance Corporation agrover1@ifc.org
    Pierre-Louis Vezina Kings College, London pierre-louis.vezina@kcl.ac.uk
    Date of production

    2026-04-20

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Fdi Mergers Acquisitions Conflict
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    F14 Empirical Studies of Trade F1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F16 Trade and Labor Market Interactions F1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Arti Grover International Finance Corporation agrover1@ifc.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-04-20
    Document version

    1
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