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PRWP

Reproducibility package for The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?

2026
Get Reproducibility Package
Reference ID
RR_CHN_2026_762
DOI
https://doi.org/10.60572/p53z-wy68
Author(s)
Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Oct 13, 2026
Last modified
Oct 13, 2026
Page views
56
Downloads
37
  • Project Description
  • Downloads
  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata
  • Citation
  • Overview

    Abstract

    China's growing dominance in manufacturing exports has given rise to concerns about a new "China Syndrome," this time focused on its impact on developing rather than industrial countries. However, emerging explanations of China's export exceptionalism and its consequences suffer from three shortcomings. First, attributing China’s large and increasing share in manufacturing exports primarily to its industrial policy obscures more fundamental factors: the scale of its economy, the diversity of its provincial endowments, and the pace of its automation. Second, focusing on the low-skilled export dimension of China’s economic expansion overlooks its positive impact on growth and its heterogeneous effects on structural transformation in developing countries.  Finally, blaming foreign industrial policies distracts attention from the often more damaging trade and investment restrictions imposed by developing countries themselves, many of which could be reformed unilaterally. This misdiagnosis matters because the already narrow window for industrialization in many developing countries may shrink further if the cost of automation falls faster than wages in China rise.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Readme Get Reproducibility Package
    Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/catalog/672/download/2021/README.pdf
    Reproducibility package for The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?
    File name
    RR_CHN_2026_762
    Zip package
    RR_CHN_2026_762.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?
    Date
    2026-10
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Stata
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    19.5 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB

    Technology requirements

    Run time: ~15 minutes.

    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
    2. Run the Package:
    • Update the working directory in line 8 of the do-file Main_replication_file, and run it.

    Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level (Base pour l'Analyse du Commerce International)
    Name
    BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level (Base pour l'Analyse du Commerce International)
    Note
    Source: Center for Prospective Studies and International Information – CEPII Centre d'Études Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales Version: V202401, HS 2012 nomenclature, years 2012-2022. Access date: January 2024. File location: "1_DATASETS". File names: BACI_HS12_Y2012_V202401 ... BACI_HS12_Y2022_V202401; BACI_ISO_CODES.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Etalab Open Licence 2.0
    License URL
    https://www.etalab.gouv.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/open-licence.pdf
    Data URL
    https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html
    Citation
    Gaulier, G. and Zignago, S. (2010). "BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level. The 1994-2007 Version" [dataset]. CEPII Working Paper No. 2010-23. CEPII. https://www.cepii.fr/DATA_DOWNLOAD/baci/doc/baci_webpage.html. Accessed January 2024.
    World Robotics Report Data
    Name
    World Robotics Report Data
    Note
    Source: International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Access date: May 2025. File location: "1_DATASETS/robot_wrk_industry_by_country_250522.dta”.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    World Robotics License Agreement
    License URL
    https://vdma-verlag.com/download_10BDB.html
    Data URL
    https://ifr.org/worldrobotics/
    Citation
    International Federation of Robotics. (2025). "World Robotics" [dataset]. IFR. https://ifr.org/worldrobotics/. Accessed May 2025.
    Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Data
    Name
    Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Data
    Note
    Source: OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Years: 1995-2022. Access date: September 2025. File location: "1_DATASETS". File names: TiVA_2025; EXGR_DVA_W.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html
    Data URL
    https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?pg=0&bp=true&snb=12&tm=TIVA&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_TIVA_MAINLV%40DF_MAINLV&df[ag]=OECD.STI.PIE&df[vs]=1.1&dq=FFD_DVA.AUS..W..A&pd=2015,&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false
    Citation
    OECD. (2025). "Trade in Value Added (TiVA) 2025 edition" [dataset]. OECD Data Explorer. https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?pg=0&bp=true&snb=12&tm=TIVA&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_TIVA_MAINLV%40DF_MAINLV&df[ag]=OECD.STI.PIE&df[vs]=1.1&dq=FFD_DVA.AUS..W..A&pd=2015,&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false. Accessed September 2025.
    World Development Indicators (WDI)
    Name
    World Development Indicators (WDI)
    Note
    Source: World Bank Indicators used: GDP (current US$) [NY.​GDP.​MKTP.​CD] and GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) [NY.GDP.PCAP.KD]. Access date: September 2026 (GDP); May 2025 (GDP per capita). File location: "1_DATASETS". File names: GDP_WDI; GDP_PC_WDI.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/public-licenses?fragment=cc
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. (2026). "World Development Indicators" [dataset]. World Bank. Indicators accessed: GDP; GDP per capita. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed May 2025 and September 2026.
    World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES)
    Name
    World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES)
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Access date: July 2026. File location: "1_DATASETS/New_Comprehensive_January_22_2026”.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://login.enterprisesurveys.org/en/terms
    Data URL
    https://login.enterprisesurveys.org/en/signin
    Citation
    World Bank. (2026). "Enterprise Surveys" [dataset]. World Bank. https://www.enterprisesurveys.org. Accessed July 2026.
    Sector-Level Skill Intensity Data
    Name
    Sector-Level Skill Intensity Data
    Note
    Source: Hannes Malmberg (2025). Access date: February 2026. File location: "1_DATASETS/table_skill_payroll_share_isic44d_rev.csv”
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    Citation
    Malmberg, Hannes. "Sector-Level Skill Intensity Data." From "Skill Bias and Development: Evidence from Trade and Industry Data." Working paper, revise and resubmit at the Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics. Accessed February 2026.
    World Bank Country and Lending Groups
    Name
    World Bank Country and Lending Groups
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Access date: January 2023. File location: "1_DATASETS". File names: Classification-economies-23.dta; Income_TOMerge; Regions_TOMerge.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets
    Data URL
    https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519
    Citation
    World Bank. (2023). "World Bank Country and Lending Groups" [dataset]. World Bank. https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519. Accessed January 2023.
    Harmonized System 6-digit (HS6) - International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) Rev. 4 Correspondence Table
    Name
    Harmonized System 6-digit (HS6) - International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC) Rev. 4 Correspondence Table
    Note
    Source: Jordan Industrial Observatory. Access date: January 2026. File location: "1_DATASETS/HS6_ISIC4.txt”.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://observatory.huzaifazoom.org/blog/2022/04/18/hs-isic-correspondence-table/
    Citation
    Jordan Industrial Observatory. (2022). "HS - ISIC Correspondence Table" [dataset]. https://observatory.huzaifazoom.org/blog/2022/04/18/hs-isic-correspondence-table/. Accessed January 2026.
    Data statement

    The package relies on three types of data: publicly available data, limited-access data, and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.

    Description

    Output
    The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    The China Syndrome 2.0: A Misdiagnosis?
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Alessandro Barattieri World Bank abarattieri@worldbank.org
    Aaditya Mattoo World Bank amattoo@worldbankgroup.org
    Date of production

    2026-10-05

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    China CHN
    Keywords
    China Manufacturing Competitiveness Automation Aging
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    F14 Empirical Studies of Trade F1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O14 Industrialization • Manufacturing and Service Industries • Choice of Technology O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F63 Economic Development F6 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Alessandro Barattieri World Bank abarattieri@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-10-05

    Document version

    1

    Citation

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