Reproducibility package for Unpacking Non-Tariff Measures: Beyond The Tip Of The Iceberg
Overview
Rising protectionism has shifted trade policy toward non-tariff measures (NTMs), yet their economic effects are not well captured by standard ad-valorem equivalents. This paper shows that NTMs affect trade not only by raising costs, but by altering firms’ adjustment margins and trade dynamics. We assemble a novel, highly disaggregated dataset of NTMs and combine it with transaction-level import and inventory data from Indonesia. Embedding these data in a dynamic trade model, we map observed firm behavior---imports, ordering frequency, and inventories---into underlying cost components, allowing us to decompose NTMs into fixed ordering costs, delivery delays, and iceberg costs. We find that NTMs impose substantial non-ad-valorem frictions. Pre-shipment inspections primarily increase fixed ordering costs, while product standards and import authorization requirements raise both fixed costs and delivery delays. NTMs significantly reshape the response to trade shocks. In the presence of NTMs, supply disruptions lead to larger inventory drawdowns and more persistent price increases, while temporary tariff shocks become more persistent due to slower inventory rebuilding. We also document substantial heterogeneity across end-use categories, with the same NTM operating through different adjustment margins across capital, consumption, and intermediate goods. Overall, our results show that NTMs play a central role in shaping not only the level of trade, but also how trade adjusts and evolves in response to shocks.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Runtime: ~2 hours.
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure access to data: obtain the datasets not included in the package (see the Datasets section) and place them in Data/Raw, keeping the file names listed in data_hash_report.csv.
- Reduced-form results (Stata): open Codes/00_master.do, update the global root on line 52, keep all RUN switches equal to 1, and run the script. Tables are written to Output/ReducedForm and Figure 1 to Output/Figures.
- Structural model, step 1 (MATLAB): run Model/code/master_montecarlo_PE.m to generate the Monte Carlo simulation files.
- Structural model, step 2 (Stata): from the Model folder, run regressions_PE.do.
- Structural model, step 3 (MATLAB): run Model/matrix_inversion.m.
- Structural model, step 4 (MATLAB): run Model/code/master.m for the counterfactual simulations and Figures 2 and 3.
Structural-model tables are written to Model/Tex files and figures to Model/code/Figures. See Model/README.md for details.
Note: The structural model (steps 3 to 6) does not use any of the restricted data and can be run without obtaining it. It reproduces Tables 3, 4, 5 and 7, Figures 2 and 3, and Appendix Tables D.4 to D.7. Table 5 is printed to the MATLAB console rather than saved to a file. The reduced-form part (step 2) requires the restricted data. However, users without access can rebuild Tables 2 and 6 and Appendix Tables D.2 and D.3 from the saved regression estimates included in Output/ReducedForm. To do so, set all RUN switches in Codes/00_master.do to 0 except RUN_TABLE_ASSEMBLY, and run the script.
Data
The reproducibility package relies on two types of data: open and restricted data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Devaki Ghose | World Bank | dghose@worldbankgroup.org |
| Shafaat Khan | Syracuse University | shafaatyar.k@gmail.com |
| Angella Faith Montfaucon | World Bank | amontfaucon@worldbank.org |
2026-10-09
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Indonesia | IDN |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Devaki Ghose | World Bank | dghose@worldbankgroup.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-10-09
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