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Reproducibility package for Shifting Landscapes: The Impact Of Agricultural Innovation On Deforestation

2026
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Reference ID
RR_BRA_2026_751
Author(s)
Marie-Louise Decamps
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Oct 16, 2026
Last modified
Oct 22, 2026
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  • Overview

    Abstract

    This paper examines the direct and indirect effects of agricultural technological change on deforestation using the introduction of genetically modified soy in the Brazilian Amazon. Soy production replaced more land and labor intensive cattle ranching, slowing local deforestation. However, displaced cattle ranching relocated to connected areas, clearing forest elsewhere and offsetting 39% of the forest spared locally. Displacement is mediated by the road network, which enables labor mobility and continued access to fixed slaughterhouses. On net, the introduction of GM soy preserved approximately 25,600 sq. km of forest between 2003 and 2010.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Readme Get Reproducibility Package
    Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/catalog/675/download/2030/README.pdf
    Reproducibility package for Shifting Landscapes: The Impact Of Agricultural Innovation On Deforestation
    File name
    RR_BRA_2026_751
    Zip package
    RR_BRA_2026_751.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Shifting Landscapes: The Impact Of Agricultural Innovation On Deforestation
    Date
    2026-10
    Dependencies
    R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    R
    Name
    R
    Version
    4.6.1
    Python
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.12.7

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: macOS Tahoe
    • Processor: Apple M4 Pro
    • Memory available: 24.0 GB
    At least 38 GB of available storage. macOS only.

    Technology requirements

    Runtime ~ 15 hours.

    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Download the two datasets that are not included in the package:
      • Receita Federal CNPJ establishment files: from the project folder, run bash data/raw/slaughterhouses/download_cnpj.sh. The script downloads the files (about 4.8 GB) and places them in data/raw/slaughterhouses/ with the names the code expects.
      • IBAMA environmental fines: download the yearly CSV files from the IBAMA open data portal (see the dataset description). Combine the files from 1996 onwards into a single file named all_non_classified_fines.parquet and place it in data/raw/ibama_fines/.
    2. Open code/config/paths py, add your computer's hostname, and set the project folder, code folder, and conda executable for your machine, following the commented example.
    3. Open code/shifting_landscapes_replication_pkg.Rproj in RStudio and run code/master.R.

    Note: Some inputs in data/raw/ were processed by the authors and are not the original public files:

    • Google Earth Engine: MapBiomas land use, indigenous lands and conservation units, FAO-GAEZ soy suitability, pasture suitability and pixel areas, aggregated to the 20 × 20 km grid.
    • QGIS: municipal areas and soy suitability.

    The code for these steps is not included because processing the original data is time- and compute-intensive; the steps are described in the Data Appendix of the paper. The processed files are included in the package, and the reproducibility verification was run from them. Once the two datasets described in step 2 are downloaded, all code in the package runs from the data provided.

    Data

    Datasets
    Indigenous Lands and Conservation Units (MapBiomas territory layers)
    Name
    Indigenous Lands and Conservation Units (MapBiomas territory layers)
    Note
    Files: data/raw/mapbiomas_col6/{f,p,a,s}_20km_{year}_{1–13}.csv (806 files); data/raw/administrative_boundaries/il_gee_20km.csv, cu_gee_20km.csv. MapBiomas Collection 6.0 data for the Brazilian Amazon, accessed through the MapBiomas public asset in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Accessed June 2022. Land use and land cover: share of each pixel covered by forest (f) and pasture (p), 1995–2010, and by soy (s) and other crops (a), 1996–2010. The original 30 × 30 m classes were grouped as follows: forest = classes 1, 9, 10; pasture = 15, 21; soy = 39, 41; other crops = 20, 36, 40, 46, 47, 48. They were then aggregated in GEE to the share of each pixel on a 1/6° grid (about 18.5 × 18.5 km, the paper's unit of analysis). Each file covers one class, year and tile (13 tiles per year); column remapped is the share and .geo is the pixel centroid. Indigenous lands and conservation units: pixels whose centroid lies within an indigenous land (il) or a federal or state conservation unit (fcu_ip, fcu_su, scu_ip, scu_su), assigned in GEE. The package contains these aggregated exports. The GEE scripts are not included; the steps are described in the Data Appendix of the paper (E.2, E.3.1).
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://gee-community-catalog.org/projects/mapbiomas/#license
    Citation
    MapBiomas. 2022. Indigenous Lands and Conservation Units (MapBiomas territory layers) [dataset]. Accessed 2022-06.
    Brazilian Agricultural Census 1995–1996, 2006 and 2017
    Name
    Brazilian Agricultural Census 1995–1996, 2006 and 2017
    Note
    Files: data/raw/agricultural_census/ (39 .xlsx files). Aggregated municipality-level results from the IBGE Agricultural Census, downloaded from SIDRA. See the paper's Data Appendix for the list of tables and variables. Accessed 2020-01. A full list of the files is included in data_hash_report.csv.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/pesquisa/censo-agropecuario/censo-agropecuario-2017/resultados-definitivos
    Citation
    IBGE. 1996, 2006, 2017. Censo Agropecuário 1995–1996, 2006 and 2017. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE [dataset]. Accessed 2020-01.
    Brazilian Demographic Census 1991
    Name
    Brazilian Demographic Census 1991
    Note
    Files: data/raw/census_1991/literacy_91.xlsx, population_91.xlsx, rural_urban_91.xlsx, pop_census_income_earners.dta. Aggregated results from the 1991 IBGE Population Census and its Sample Supplement. The Sample Supplement data are pre-processed because of their size; see the paper's Data Appendix. Accessed 2022-03. Processing note: SIDRA exports with column headers renamed by the authors; aggregated to AMCs in clean_census1991.R.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/populacao/25089-censo-1991-6.html
    Citation
    IBGE. 1991. Censo Demográfico 1991. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE [dataset]. Accessed 2022-03.
    FAO-Global Agro-Ecological Zones v3.0 Soy Suitability
    Name
    FAO-Global Agro-Ecological Zones v3.0 Soy Suitability
    Note
    Files: data/raw/fao_gaez/high_soy.tif, high_soy.asc, low_soy.tif, low_soy.asc, ZS_high.csv, ZS_low.csv, dA_gee_20km.csv. Potential soy yields under high and low input levels for each pixel and municipality in Brazil, aggregated by the authors to 20 x 20 km pixels and municipalities. Accessed 2020-01. Processing note: Rasters clipped to Brazil; averaged to the 1/6° grid in GEE (dA = high − low) and to AMCs with QGIS Zonal Statistics (mean).
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    FAO Terms and Conditions
    License URL
    https://www.fao.org/contact-us/terms/en/
    Data URL
    https://gaez.fao.org/
    Citation
    FAO. 2015. Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ v3.0). FAO, Rome, Italy [dataset]. Accessed 2020-01.
    Suitability of Global Land Area for Pasture (FGGD)
    Name
    Suitability of Global Land Area for Pasture (FGGD)
    Note
    Files: data/raw/fao_gaez/pasture_suitability/A_p_20km_*.csv (13 files). Pasture suitability index for each pixel in Brazil, accessed through the FAO Map Catalog and aggregated by the authors to a 20 x 20 km resolution. Accessed 2023-04. Processing note: Raster averaged to the 1/6° grid in GEE; exported in 13 tiles.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    FAO Terms and Conditions
    License URL
    https://www.fao.org/contact-us/terms/en/
    Data URL
    https://gaez.fao.org/pages/data-access-download
    Citation
    FAO and IIASA. 2007. Suitability of Global Land Area for Pasture (FGGD). FAO Map Catalog [dataset]. Accessed 2023-04.
    Environmental Fines Data
    Name
    Environmental Fines Data
    Note
    File: data/raw/ibama_fines/all_non_classified_fines.parquet. Description: Records of federal environmental fines (autos de infração) issued by IBAMA across Brazil, from the IBAMA open data portal (Fiscalização – Auto de Infração). The file covers fines issued from 1996 to May 2025. The analysis uses fines issued between 1996 and 2010. Accessed September 2025; the IBAMA extract is dated 22 May 2025 (field ULTIMA_ATUALIZACAO_RELATORIO). Processing note: The portal distributes one CSV file per year (auto_infracao_YYYY.csv, semicolon-separated, UTF-8). The authors combined the yearly files for 1996–2025 into a single parquet file. The files for 1977–1995 were not included. Within the included years, no rows were filtered and all columns published at the time of access were kept (68 columns). Values were not cleaned; all filtering, deduplication, and aggregation to the municipality-year level are done in the package code (code/DataWork/cleaning/). Access: The data contain personal information (infractor names and CPF/CNPJ numbers), so the file is not included in the reproducibility package, in line with the World Bank Data Policy. To run the code, users must: Download the yearly CSV files from the following link. Combine the files from 1996 onwards into one parquet file named all_non_classified_fines.parquet. Place it in data/raw/ibama_fines/. Note on versions: IBAMA keeps revising past records, and older extracts are not published. A new download will therefore not match the authors' 22 May 2025 extract exactly. For 1996–2010, today's files have only 1–4 additional fines per year, and fewer than 0.1% of records have changed status or municipality. Results may differ when using the published ones.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available, but since it contains personal information it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Open Data
    License URL
    https://dadosabertos.ibama.gov.br/about
    Data URL
    https://dadosabertos.ibama.gov.br/dataset/fiscalizacao-auto-de-infracao/resource/b2aba344-95df-43c0-b2ba-f4353cfd9a00
    Citation
    The Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA). 2023. Dados Abertos do Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis: Fiscalização – Auto de Infração [dataset]. Accessed 2025-09.
    National Registry of Legal Entities (CNPJ) – Establishments
    Name
    National Registry of Legal Entities (CNPJ) – Establishments
    Note
    Files: data/raw/slaughterhouses/. Establishment-level records from the Receita Federal's Cadastro Nacional da Pessoa Jurídica (CNPJ), monthly release of June 2025 (reference date 14 June 2025). They are used to identify cattle slaughterhouses (CNAE 1011201/1011205) and their openings and closings in 1996–2010. Processing note: The establishment files (K3241.K03200Y[0-9].D50614.ESTABELE.csv, about 15 GB) are not included in the package because of their size. To get them, run bash data/raw/slaughterhouses/download_cnpj.sh (needs curl and unzip, about 4.8 GB download). The script downloads the original, unchanged files from the June 2025 release (folder 2025-06) at the link below, unzips them into data/raw/slaughterhouses/ and adds the .csv extension the code expects. The lookup tables (CNAE.csv, motivo.csv, municipios.csv) are included in the package. The verification was run with the files provided by the authors; if Receita Federal revises the files in this release, results may differ slightly.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available, but due to size constraints, they are not included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://dados.gov.br/dados/conjuntos-dados/cadastro-nacional-da-pessoa-juridica---cnpj
    Citation
    Receita Federal do Brasil. 2025. Cadastro Nacional da Pessoa Jurídica – CNPJ [dataset]. Accessed 2026-04.
    Transport Logistics: Federal Roads 2005
    Name
    Transport Logistics: Federal Roads 2005
    Note
    Files: data/raw/administrative_boundaries/roads_geometries/rodovia_2005.* (shapefile). Federal road network (paved and unpaved) in 2005, based on the 2002 network. Accessed 2020-08.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/cartas-e-mapas/redes-geograficas/15793-logistica-dos-transportes.html?edicao=24589&t=acesso-ao-produto
    Citation
    IBGE. 2005. Logística dos Transportes [dataset]. Accessed 2020-08.
    Regional Divisions of Brazil
    Name
    Regional Divisions of Brazil
    Note
    Files: data/raw/administrative_boundaries/BR_Municipios_2024/, BR_UF_2024/, BR_Pais_2024/ (shapefiles), plus auxiliary municipality files in data/raw/administrative_boundaries/. Geometries of municipalities, states and national borders. Accessed 2025-05.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/geosciences/territorial-organization/regional-division/21536-regional-divisions-of-brazil.html
    Citation
    IBGE. 2023. Regional Divisions of Brazil. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE [dataset]. Accessed 2025-05.
    Biomes of Brazil
    Name
    Biomes of Brazil
    Note
    Files: data/raw/administrative_boundaries/Biomas_250mil/lm_bioma_250.* (shapefile). Geometries of Brazilian biomes at 1:250,000. Accessed 2025-05.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://www.ibge.gov.br/geociencias/informacoes-ambientais/vegetacao/15842-biomas.html?=&t=downloads
    Citation
    IBGE. 2023. Biomes of Brazil. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE [dataset]. Accessed 2025-05.
    Minimum Comparable Areas (AMCs) 1872–2010
    Name
    Minimum Comparable Areas (AMCs) 1872–2010
    Note
    File: data/raw/administrative_boundaries/municipio_de_para.csv. Mapping of municipalities into minimum comparable areas, spatial units that are consistent over time, 1991–2010. Accessed 2020-01.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://revistas.usp.br/ee/article/view/106909/124729
    Citation
    Ehrl, P. 2017. Minimum comparable areas for the period 1872–2010: an aggregation of Brazilian municipalities. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo) 47: 215–229.
    Data statement

    All data sources are publicly available. Two datasets are not included in the reproducibility package (due to size and personal information), and some files are provided already processed or as intermediate data due to size and processing restrictions. For more details, refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Shifting Landscapes: The Impact Of Agricultural Innovation On Deforestation
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Shifting Landscapes: The Impact Of Agricultural Innovation On Deforestation
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Marie-Louise Decamps World Bank mdecamps@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2026-10-13

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Brazil BRA
    Keywords
    Deforestation Agriculture
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    Q15 Land Ownership and Tenure • Land Reform • Land Use • Irrigation • Agriculture and Environment Q1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O13 Agriculture • Natural Resources • Energy • Environment • Other Primary Products O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q56 Environment and Development • Environment and Trade • Sustainability • Environmental Accounts and Accounting • Environmental Equity • Population Growth Q5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q16 R&D • Agricultural Technology • Biofuels • Agricultural Extension Services Q1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Marie-Louise Decamps World Bank mdecamps@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-10-13

    Document version

    1

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