Reproducibility package for News-Based Multidimensional Political Instability In West And Central Africa
Reference ID
RR_SSA_2026_721
Author(s)
Pierre Mandon, Kabinet Kaba, Philipp Kronenberg
Collections
Metadata
Created on
Oct 19, 2026
Last modified
Oct 27, 2026
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Overview
Abstract
Political instability remains a central obstacle to economic development in West and Central Africa, yet existing empirical work typically treats it as a one-dimensional construct and relies on low-frequency, event-based datasets that are ill-suited to capturing short-term dynamics or the precise timing of political shocks. This paper develops high-frequency, news-based indicators that separately track four dimensions of political instability - politically motivated violence, mass civil protest, instability within the regime, and instability of the regime -- for 17 West and Central African countries over 1990--2024, drawing on a broad and deliberately balanced set of international news sources for a region where existing text-based measures are at their thinnest. The four dimensions contain distinct information: they spike at different historical moments, differ in persistence, and co-move across borders to varying degrees. Embedding the indicators in a monthly VAR for the Democratic Republic of the Congo reveals heterogeneous macroeconomic transmission: violence shocks resemble localized risk and supply disruptions; protest shocks generate short-lived risk repricing; within-regime instability maps to slower, more persistent uncertainty effects; and regime instability behaves like a broad confidence shock with demand restraint. Complementary firm-level evidence from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys shows that heightened political violence is associated with significantly slower firm sales growth, with the burden concentrated among larger firms, domestically owned firms, and service-sector firms.
Reproducibility Package
Scripts
File name
RR_SSA_2026_721
Zip package
RR_SSA_2026_721.zip
Title
Reproducibility package for News-Based Multidimensional Political Instability In West And Central Africa
Date
2026-10
Dependencies
R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock. Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
Instructions
See README in reproducibility package.
Notes
Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
Source code repository
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Technology environment
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ (2.80 GHz) (2 processors)
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Technology requirements
Run time: ~ 30 minutes.
Reproduction instructions
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
- Run the Package: Run the scripts in order:
main.R,run_all.m,NBS_master.do.
Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
Datasets
Name
Factiva Article Counts
Note
File location: Data/Raw/restricted/factiva_api/Results_Factiva_API/ (85 JSON files in 28 numbered query subfolders, named analytics__.json). Monthly article counts from January 1990 onward for 17 West and Central African countries, retrieved through the Factiva Analytics API from 12 English-language outlets (Table 1 of the paper). The 28 queries are listed in the header of Code/1_read_data.R and can be resubmitted by a third party with API access; results may differ slightly because Factiva updates its archive. Access requires a Factiva subscription with API access. Accessed 6-10 July 2025.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Dow Jones Factiva subscription agreement
Data URL
https://www.dowjones.com/professional/factiva/
Citation
Dow Jones & Company. 2025. "Factiva Article Counts" [dataset]. Factiva Analytics API, monthly article counts. https://www.dowjones.com/professional/factiva/. Accessed July 2025.
Name
Factiva Source List and Region Taxonomy Codes
Note
File locations: Data/Raw/restricted/factiva_lookup/All Active FA Sources 8-22-22.CSV (list of Factiva sources) and Data/Raw/restricted/factiva_lookup/regions.csv (Factiva region codes and descriptions). Factiva subscribers can download both files from the Factiva Developer Platform under the taxonomy/lookup codes section. Accessed August 2022.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Dow Jones Factiva subscription agreement
Data URL
https://developer.dowjones.com/
Citation
Dow Jones & Company. 2022. "Factiva Source List and Region Taxonomy Codes" [dataset]. https://developer.dowjones.com/. Accessed August 2022.
Name
Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED)
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/ACLED/df_acled_in.rda. R extract made by the authors from the ACLED Africa curated file Africa_1997-2025_Jan17.csv (1997 to January 2025) by parsing dates and adding ISO3 codes; the code is commented out at the top of the ACLED section in Code/3_benchmark_data.R. Variables used: event_date, country, event_type, sub_event_type. Free registration is required to download the curated file. Accessed 17 January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
ACLED Terms of Use
License URL
https://acleddata.com/terms-of-use/
Data URL
https://acleddata.com/curated-data-files/
Citation
Raleigh, C., Linke, A., Hegre, H., & Karlsen, J. (2010). Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset.
Journal of Peace Research, 47(5),651–660. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310378914. Data: ACLED, Africa curated data file, accessed 17 January 2025, https://acleddata.com.
Name
Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/Barret et al/events.rdata. Monthly country-level significant-unrest event panel (object events.out) from the replication materials of Barrett, Appendino, Nguyen, and de Leon Miranda (IMF), published as supplementary material to the Journal of Development Economics article. The Reported Social Unrest Index is also published by the IMF (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/08/07/Measuring-Social-Unrest-Using-Media-Reports-49544). Publicly downloadable and free to use with citation. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom License
License URL
https://www.elsevier.com/legal/elsevier-website-terms-and-conditions
Data URL
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387822000803
Citation
Barrett, P., Appendino, M., Nguyen, K., and de Leon Miranda, J. 2022. "Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports." Journal of Development Economics 158: 102924. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102924. Accessed January 2025.
Name
Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/CNTS Data Archive/2023_Edition_CNTSDATA.xlsx. 2023 edition. Variables used: the annual domestic conflict (domestic*), legislative (legis*), and political (polit*) series. Requires purchase of a license from Databanks International. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Databanks International commercial license
License URL
https://www.cntsdata.com/licenses
Citation
Banks, A. S., and Wilson, K. A. 2023. "Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive" [dataset]. Databanks International. https://www.cntsdata.com. Accessed January 2025.
Name
Coup d'Etat Events, 1946-2021
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/CSP Database/Center for Systemic Peace, Coups d'Etat, 1946-2021/CSPCoupsAnnualv2021.xls. Annual country file (Excel) from the Center for Systemic Peace (CSP), Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR). Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
CSP terms of use
License URL
https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
Data URL
https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
Citation
Marshall, M. G., and Marshall, D. R. 2022. "Coup d'Etat Events, 1946-2021" [dataset]. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html. Accessed January 2025.
Name
Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/CSP Database/Polity5 Project, Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018/p5v2018.xls. Polity5 Annual Time-Series, 1946-2018 (Excel). Variables used: democ, autoc, polity2. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
CSP terms of use
License URL
https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
Data URL
https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
Citation
Marshall, M. G., and Gurr, T. R. 2020. "Polity5: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2018" [dataset]. Center for Systemic Peace. https://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html. Accessed January 2025.
Name
Database of Political Institutions 2012
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/Database of Political Institutions (World Bank)/dpi2012.xls (file DPI2012.xls from the World Bank Data Catalog). Variables used: yrsoffc, prtyin, govfrac, frac, maj. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/wps2283-database-political-institutions
Citation
World Bank. 2012. "Database of Political Institutions 2012" [dataset]. https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/wps2283-database-political-institutions. Accessed January 2025. See also Beck, T., Clarke, G., Groff, A., Keefer, P., and Walsh, P. 2001. "New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions." World Bank Economic Review 15(1): 165-176. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/15.1.165.
Name
Gallup World Poll
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/GALLUP/GallupAnalytics_Export_20240823_141734.xlsx. Annual country-level percentages exported from Gallup Analytics for the 17 sample countries, in four sheets: Approval of Country's Leadership, Confidence in National Government, Corruption in Government, and Honesty of Elections. The file contains country-level aggregates only. Accessed through the World Bank Group Library institutional subscription (https://wbglibrary.worldbank.org/find/databases). Accessed 23 August 2024.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Gallup Analytics subscription agreement (World Bank Group institutional subscription)
License URL
https://www.gallup.com/ProductTerms
Data URL
https://www.gallup.com/analytics/318875/global-research.aspx
Citation
Gallup, Inc. 2024. "Gallup World Poll" [dataset]. Gallup Analytics. https://www.gallup.com/analytics/318875/global-research.aspx. Accessed August 2024.
Name
International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/ICRG sample (not free)/Barrett Replication Code/ICRG_CountryData.csv. Monthly political risk components, obtained from the replication materials of Barrett et al. (2022) (see the Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports entry). Further redistribution or reuse requires a paid ICRG subscription from The PRS Group. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
The PRS Group commercial subscription terms
Data URL
https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/
Citation
The PRS Group. 2025. "International Country Risk Guide (ICRG)" [dataset]. https://www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/icrg/. Accessed January 2025.
Name
Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2010: A New Dataset
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/powell_thyne_coups/powell_thyne_coups_final.txt (version V2024.01.29, tab-delimited). Variables used: country, year, month, coup. Freely available for research use with citation. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Custom License
Data URL
https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/coup_data/home.htm
Citation
Powell, J. M., and Thyne, C. L. 2011. "Global Instances of Coups from 1950 to 2010: A New Dataset." Journal of Peace Research 48(2): 249-259. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343310397436. Accessed January 2025.
Name
Ethnic One-Sided Violence (EOSV) Dataset
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/UCDP dataset/The Ethnic One-Sided Violence (EOSV) Dataset/EOSV Dataset.dta (Stata). Variables used: Year, BestFatalityEstimate, Location. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/
Citation
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). 2021. "Ethnic One-Sided Violence (EOSV) Dataset" [dataset]. https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/. Accessed January 2025. See also Fjelde, H., Hultman, L., Schubiger, L. I., Cederman, L.-E., Hug, S., and Sollenberg, M. 2021. "Introducing the Ethnic One-Sided Violence Dataset." Conflict Management and Peace Science 38(1): 109-126. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894219863256.
Name
Worldwide Governance Indicators
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators/The Worldwide Governance Indicators.xlsx. Full dataset (Excel), 1996-2022 (2023 update), one sheet per dimension: VoiceandAccountability, Political StabilityNoViolence, GovernmentEffectiveness, RegulatoryQuality, RuleofLaw, ControlofCorruption. Variable used: the Estimate column of each sheet. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators
Citation
World Bank. 2023. "Worldwide Governance Indicators" [dataset]. 2023 update. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators. Accessed January 2025. See also Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., and Mastruzzi, M. 2011. "The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues." Hague Journal on the Rule of Law 3(2): 220-246. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1876404511200046.
Name
World Handbook of Political Indicators IV
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/benchmark_data/World Handbook of Political Indicators IV (WHIV)/WHIV (Daily-csv).csv. Daily event file (CSV). Variables used: eventdate, eventform, tgtloc_wdi. Publicly downloadable and free to use with citation. Accessed January 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
Data URL
https://sociology.osu.edu/worldhandbook
Citation
Jenkins, J. C., Taylor, C. L., Abbott, M., Maher, T. V., and Peterson, L. 2012. "World Handbook of Political Indicators IV" [dataset]. Mershon Center for International Security Studies, The Ohio State University. https://sociology.osu.edu/worldhandbook. Accessed January 2025.
Name
DRC Monthly Vector Autoregression (VAR) Dataset
Note
File location: Data/Raw/public/VAR/monthly/Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo.csv. Authors' compilation, January 2012 to May 2024, read by Code/run_all.m. Columns: CPI, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Nighttime Light, Commodity Price Index, and four NBS series; the NBS columns are outputs of this package, computed from the Factiva article counts. Sources by column: (1) IMF Data Portal (https://data.imf.org): CPI (IMF.STA:CPI, series COD.CPI._T.SRP_YOY_PCH_PA_PT.M) and Exchange Rate (IMF.STA:ER, series COD.XDC_USD.PA_RT.M, converted by the authors to period-over-period percent change), accessed 12 November 2025; Commodity Price Index (IMF.RES:CTOT, series COD.CEPI_CTOTX_GDP.R_RW_IX.M), accessed 6 October 2025. (2) Banque Centrale du Congo policy rate (Taux directeur BCC, https://www.bcc.cd/statistiques/secteur-monetaire/taux-interet), built from the BCC history of policy-rate decisions and the Communique of 8 August 2023, with each decision carried forward until the next change; accessed November 2025. (3) Global Scale Nightlight Time Series Dataset (Najjar, Earth Observation Atlas; https://github.com/eoatlas/nightlight): monthly median nighttime-light intensity, national aggregate (ADM0), deseasonalized by the authors; accessed 1 October 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
IMF Copyright and Usage terms (IMF series); Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) (nighttime lights); free use with attribution (Banque Centrale du Congo)
Citation
Authors' compilation. 2025. "DRC Monthly Vector Autoregression (VAR) Dataset" [dataset]. Based on the IMF Data Portal (CPI, Exchange Rates, Commodity Terms of Trade); Banque Centrale du Congo, policy rate series; and Najjar, A. (2024), Global Scale Nightlight Time Series Dataset, Earth Observation Atlas.
Name
World Development Indicators
Note
File locations: Section_4.3/Data/WDI/WDI_GDP_growth1.xlsx, WDI_GDP1.xlsx, WDI_GDPper1.xlsx, WDI_GDPper_growth1.xlsx, WDI_Exchange_Rate1.xlsx (the matching .dta files and WDI_Database.dta are created from these by NBS_Master.do). All countries, 1960-2024, wide format. Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG (GDP growth, annual %), NY.GDP.MKTP.KD (GDP, constant 2015 US$), GDP per capita, constant LCU, NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG (GDP per capita growth, annual %), PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per US$, period average). Used in the firm-level application (Section 4.3). Accessed 1 October 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
License URL
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Data URL
https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Citation
World Bank. 2025. "World Development Indicators" [dataset]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed October 2025.
Name
World Economic Outlook Database, April 2024 Edition
Note
File location: Section_4.3/Data/WDI/WDI_GDP_Deflator1.xlsx (the workbook keeps its WDI_ prefix because NBS_Master.do reads it by that name; it is converted to WDI_GDP_Deflator1.dta). Series NGDP_D (Gross domestic product, deflator, index), all countries, 1980-2029, reshaped by the authors to wide format with a Country column and one column per year (x1980 to x2029). Used in the firm-level application (Section 4.3). Accessed 1 October 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
License
The Use of IMF Data
License URL
https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm
Data URL
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/April
Citation
International Monetary Fund. 2024. "World Economic Outlook Database, April 2024 Edition" [dataset]. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/April. Accessed October 2025.
Name
Enterprise Surveys
Note
File location: Section_4.3/Data/WBES/New_Comprehensive_May_5_2025.dta. Not included in the package; replicators must download it and save it unchanged at that path. Harmonized global raw-data file (Stata format), release of 5 May 2025, from the Combined Data tab, covering survey years 2006-2025. Free download after registering for an account; under the Enterprise Surveys terms of use the microdata may not be redistributed or shared with third parties. If the release has been superseded, request it from enterprisesurveys@worldbank.org. The variables used are listed in Section_4.3/README, section 4.3. NBS_Master.do rebuilds the derived firm-level file (Finale_Data.dta) from this download. Accessed May 2025.
Access policy
Data is publicly available but does not allow redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
License
Enterprise Surveys Data Access Protocol (accepted at registration)
License URL
https://www.enterprisesurveys.org
Data URL
https://www.enterprisesurveys.org
Citation
World Bank. 2025. "Enterprise Surveys: Combined Global Raw Dataset, 2006-2025" [dataset]. Release of 5 May 2025. https://www.enterprisesurveys.org. Accessed May 2025.
Data statement
The reproducibility package relies on three types of data: open, accessible, and limited-access data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.
Description
Output
Type
Working Paper
Title
News-Based Multidimensional Political Instability In West And Central Africa
Description
Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
Authors
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Pierre Mandon | World Bank | pmandon@worldbank.org |
| Kabinet Kaba | World Bank | kkaba1@worldbank.org |
| Philipp Kronenberg | KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich | kronenberg@kof.ethz.ch |
Date of production
2026-10-16
Scope and coverage
Geographic locations
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa | SSA |
Keywords
Political Instability
Developing Countries
Var
Firms Performance
News Sentiment
Africa
Topics
Disclaimer
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
License
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Pierre Mandon | World Bank | pmandon@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
Producers
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
Date of Production
2026-10-16
Document version
1