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Reproducibility package for Climate Change And Polarization: Some Inconvenient Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa

2026
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Reference ID
RR_SSA_2026_773
Author(s)
Vasco Molini, Fabio Clementi, Michele Fabiani, Francesco Schettino
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Oct 28, 2026
Last modified
Oct 28, 2026
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Climate change is widely understood to fall hardest on the poor, yet its distributional footprint is usually summarized by a single inequality or poverty statistic. This paper asks instead whether a warming climate is associated with polarization – a hollowing out of the middle – in sub-Saharan Africa. Pooling harmonized consumption surveys from a pre-2010 and a post-2010 period, we treat the region as one continent-wide distribution and use relative distribution methods to isolate changes in shape from median growth. Polarization rises sharply, and far more below the median than above. A Shapley decomposition of the change ranks local temperature exposure second only to asset endowments, with its contribution concentrated in the lower tail and robust to alternative climate indicators and balancing methods.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_SSA_2026_773
    Zip package
    RR_SSA_2026_773.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Climate Change And Polarization: Some Inconvenient Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa
    Date
    2026-10
    Dependencies
    Stata dependencies are listed in the ado folder.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Stata
    Version
    19.5 MP

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:

    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: INTEL(R) XEON(R) PLATINUM 8562Y+ 2.80 GHz (2 processors)
    • Memory: 32 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time: 36.5 hours
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
    2. Run the Package:
    • Update the working directory in line 38 of the do-file main, and run it.

    Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by replicators. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    Harmonized Household Consumption Surveys
    Note
    Files: data/raw/africa_raw_temperature.dta and data/raw/africa_raw_rainfall.dta. Derived household-level files built by the authors from 40 harmonized surveys covering 27 sub-Saharan African countries (2002–2021), retrieved through datalibweb in June 2026, with Climate Change Knowledge Portal variables merged in (see separate entry); the two files differ only in the climate variable. They are not included in the public package: datalibweb is available only on World Bank computers to users with a valid World Bank labor contract, after requesting access to the collection from the AFR focal point, and its terms of use do not allow redistribution. The datalibweb calls and the full construction procedure are documented in the README. General questions on datalibweb: datalibweb@worldbank.org.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://github.com/worldbank/datalibweb
    Citation
    Sub-Saharan Africa Team for Statistical Development (AFR-TSD), World Bank. 2026. “Harmonized household consumption surveys (SSAPOV), 24 sub-Saharan African countries, 2002–2021” [dataset]. Accessed in June 2026.
    Name
    Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series
    Note
    Files: merged into data/raw/africa_raw_temperature.dta and data/raw/africa_raw_rainfall.dta. Annual mean temperature (°C) and accumulated precipitation (mm) at first-level administrative unit (admin1), derived by the CCKP from the CRU TS gridded dataset of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia. Replicators can download it from the data URL below by selecting observed climate data, CRU TS, annual aggregation and admin1 level. The authors converted the series into percentage variations and merged them onto the survey data outside this package, so the variables are present only inside the two restricted files; the procedure is documented in the README. Secondary citation: Harris, I., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P., & Lister, D., 2020: Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Scientific Data, 7, 109. doi:10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available but not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data
    Citation
    World Bank Group. 2026. “Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, CRU TS4.08 0.5-Degree” [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.57966/tw2k-9h36. Accessed June 2026.
    Data statement

    The reproducibility package relies on two types of data: open and limited-access data. For the source, access type, file location, and citation of each dataset, refer to the Datasets section and the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Climate Change And Polarization: Some Inconvenient Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa
    Description
    Policy Research Working Paper (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Vasco Molini World Bank Group vmolini@worldbank.org
    Fabio Clementi University of Macerata, Italy fabio.clementi@unimc.it
    Michele Fabiani The “Gabriele d’Annunzio” University of Chieti-Pescara, Italy michele.fabiani@unich.it
    Francesco Schettino The University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Italy francesco.schettino@unicampania.it
    Date of production

    2026-10-14

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    Sub-Saharan Africa SSA
    Keywords
    Sub-Saharan Africa Climate Change Economic Polarization Relative Distribution Analysis Shapley Decomposition
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    C14 Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General C1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    D31 Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions D3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    D63 Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement D6 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O15 Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O55 Africa O5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q54 Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Q5 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Vasco Molini World Bank Group vmolini@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-10-14
    Document version

    1
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