Reproducibility Package for The Evolution Of Flood Exposure And Protection Gaps In Germany

Flood risks in Germany are intensifying due to climate change, land-use change, and continued settlement expansion in flood-prone areas. We present the first nationally consistent, fine-scale (30 m) assessment of flood exposure for over 11,100 municipalities (Gemeinden) by integrating biannual settlement footprint data from 2016 to 2025 with fluvial, pluvial, and coastal flood hazard data, forward-looking climate scenarios, and detailed dike protection maps. We identify several critical trends: First, settlement area in flood zones has grown at rates similar to or in some states faster than that in safe zones, indicating that development patterns continue to reinforce, rather than reduce, exposure. Second, under the most pessimistic climate scenario (SSP5–RCP8.5), 80.7% of Gemeinden are projected to experience increased flood exposure by 2080, while only 4.5% experience a decrease, even with settlement footprints fixed at their 2025 levels. Third, across all climate scenarios, pluvial flooding dominates the projected rise in exposure, underscoring the growing influence of extreme rainfall events on flood exposure. Lastly, we reveal regional disparities in dike protection. Many highly exposed Gemeinden have few or no engineered structural defenses, highlighting potential gaps where settlement exposure- has not been matched by corresponding protective infrastructure. Overall, this evidence can inform zoning reforms, guide adaptation investments, and support long-term resilience planning at national, state, and local levels.