Reproducibility package for Trade Diversion And Jobs: Evidence From Mexican Municipalities
Overview
This article examines the local effects of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade disruptions on Mexico. Combining detailed municipal-level customs data with U.S. tariff schedules, we estimate that municipalities with greater export concentration in products targeted by U.S. tariffs on China (hereafter, tariff exposure) experienced significantly larger nearshoring dividends. A 1 percent increase in tariff exposure led to a 4.3 percent increase in municipality-level exports to the United States, with gains concentrated in northern and south-central states. These export gains translated into broad labor market improvements: total labor income rose by 5.6 percent for each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure, driven by job creation rather than wage growth as average earnings remained unchanged. Effects were heterogeneous across skill levels, with the largest employment rate gains among semi-skilled workers. Beyond job quantity, the shock improved job quality: each 1 percent increase in tariff exposure reduced labor informality by 0.25 percentage points, with newly created jobs disproportionately being formal. Effects were driven primarily by manufacturing but extended to services through local spillovers. The findings indicate that trade policy changes between major economies can significantly reshape the spatial distribution of economic activity and quantity and quality of jobs in third-party countries.
Reproducibility Package
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Reproducibility
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz
• Memory available: 32.0 GB
Runtime: ~10 minutes.
To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:
- Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
- Run the Package:
- Update the working directory of the do-file
0_master.do, and run it.
Since not all the original data can be redistributed, the package includes the outputs produced by the authors, which can be used to review the results presented in the paper.
Data
All data sources are publicly available but not all are included in the reproducibility package.
Description
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán | World Bank | crodriguezc@worldbank.org |
| Emmanuel Vazquez | CEDLAS-UNLP | evazquez@cedlas.org |
| Hernan Winkler | World Bank | hwinkler@worldbank.org |
2026-06-16
Scope and coverage
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Mexico | MEX |
Disclaimer
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
Access and rights
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
Contacts
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodríguez-Castelán | World Bank | crodriguezc@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
Information on metadata
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-06-16
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