This paper studies how credit guarantee and employment protection programs interact in supporting firms during crises, using real and financial administrative data for all firms and a quantitative macroeconomic model. Low interest rates encourage riskier firms to demand government-backed loans, while banks tend to reject those applications. The credit demand outweighs this screening response, expanding indebtedness. Given the opportunity cost of shutting down, the employment program's take-up is unrelated to risk. The employment program mitigates the credit program expansion by supporting firms and enabling banks to screen them. Counterfactuals show how policy ingredients, including interest rate caps, limit macroeconomic risk.
| Repository name | URI |
|---|---|
| Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) | https://reproducibility.worldbank.org |
Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
• OS: Windows 11 Enterprise 25H2
• Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz (2 processors)
• Memory available: 16.0 GB
• Software version: Stata MP 19.5, MATLAB 2024a
Runtime: ~2 hours.
The replication package is designed to run in three environments (Outside, BCCh (Central Bank of Chile), and CMF (Financial Market Commission of Chile)), selected automatically in Codes/0.Master do file from the computer's username. The BCCh and CMF environments run only inside the secure servers of the Central Bank of Chile and Chile's Financial Market Commission, respectively, where the confidential firm-level microdata reside and cannot be exported. The Outside environment is the one any reviewer can run on their own machine: it builds all public data from scratch and substitutes simulated placeholder data — generated with the same variable names, types, and structure as the confidential microdata — wherever the real data cannot leave the government servers. This lets the entire code base execute end to end and be checked for correctness outside the bank, even though outputs that depend on the confidential microdata will not numerically match the published results. Table 10 and Appendix Figure 6, which depend only on the calibrated quantitative model and no confidential data, are fully reproducible in the Outside environment.
Steps:
${maindir} path in Codes/0.Master to the reviewer's local package location.Codes/0.Master in Stata (installs all Stata package dependencies, creates the Data/ and Output/ directory structure, and runs the Stata pipeline for the Outside environment on public and simulated data).Model/Tools/ to the MATLAB path — required for runcalibrate_TFP_v2.m.Model/runcalibrate_TFP_v2.m (calibration)revision_aggregateimplications3_new_LABOR_w_choice_260609.m (policy counterfactuals)revision_runme4_graphs_joe_fixedgrid_260609.m (Appendix Figure 6)Codes/2.Tables_Quantitative_Model.do in Stata to produce Table 10.Note: Since most of the data is restricted, the outputs created by the replicators and by the authors are included in the package. Portions of the data are stored only within the secure environments of the Chilean government (BCCh and CMF servers) and could not be run by the replicators. Logs provided by the authors were used to verify the corresponding exhibits. Please see the README for further details.
Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.
| Author | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Sergio L. Schmukler | World Bank | sschmukler@worldbank.org |
| Federico Huneeus | Duke University & Central Bank of Chile | federico.huneeus@duke.edu |
| Joseph P. Kaboski | University of Notre Dame | jkaboski@nd.edu |
| Mauricio Larrain | University of los Andes, Chile | mlarraine@uandes.cl |
| Mario Vera | Financial Market Commission of Chile | mavera@cmfchile.cl |
2026-08-13
| Location | Code |
|---|---|
| Chile | CHL |
The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.
| Name | URI |
|---|---|
| MIT License | https://opensource.org/license/mit |
| World Bank IGO Rider | https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md |
| Name | Affiliation | |
|---|---|---|
| Sergio L. Schmukler | World Bank | sschmukler@worldbank.org |
| Reproducibility WBG | World Bank | reproducibility@worldbank.org |
| Name | Abbreviation | Affiliation | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reproducibility WBG | DECDI | World Bank - Development Impact Department | Verification and preparation of metadata |
2026-08-13
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