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PRWP

Reproducibility package for Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_699
Author(s)
Florian Moelders, Shawn Cole, Fanele Mashwama, Cesaire Meh
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
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Created on
Aug 21, 2026
Last modified
Aug 24, 2026
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  • Overview
  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
  • Scope and coverage
  • Disclaimer
  • Access and rights
  • Contacts
  • Information on metadata

    • Overview

    Abstract

    Private debt dominates corporate financing in emerging markets, yet not enough is known about the returns earned by investors in this asset class. Using loan-level cash flow data from the International Finance Corporation—covering 4,109 loans totaling approximately USD 115 billion across 127 countries from 1992 to 2024—we provide the first systematic evidence on realized returns to private debt in emerging and developing economies. The loan portfolio achieves a public market equivalent (PME) of0.98 versus the Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index and a gross internal rate of return of 5.7 percent, indicating that private EMDE debt delivers returns competitive with public market alternatives over three decades. Country-matched benchmarking reveals substantial outperformance relative to local market alternatives (PME of 1.15). Default rates more than double during moderate domestic economic downturns and nearly triple during severe ones, with the steepest deterioration in middle-income countries. We also examine whether there is a trade-off between mission and margin by evaluating performance in the most challenging markets: very low-income and fragile and conflict-affected states. Strikingly, while we do find higher default rates in these environments, returns benchmarked against public market alternatives are statistically indistinguishable from the overall portfolio, suggesting that IFC was able to price credit risk appropriately even in these markets.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Get Reproducibility Package
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_699
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_699.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies
    Date
    2026-08
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    Name
    Python
    Version
    3.10.16

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Core(TM) Ultra 7 165U, 2.10 GHz — 1 processor, 12 cores / 14 logical processors
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB
    Technology requirements

    Run time: ~ 30 minutes
    Reproduction instructions

    To reproduce the findings in this paper, a replicator must:

    1. Secure Access to Data: Access the datasets not included in the package. See the Datasets section for more details.
    2. Run the Package:
      • Restore the environment in requirements.txt.
      • Run the python script "main".

    The reproducibility package was verified virtually due to the proprietary nature of the data. Since not all the data is included, the package includes the results produced by author's during the virtual run. These files can be used to review the results presented in the paper.

    Data

    Datasets
    Name
    IFC Loan Cash Flow Database
    Note
    File: Loan cash flows anonymized.dta. Held outside the shareable package; not included. Project-level cash flow records for IFC's lending portfolio (disbursements, repayments, fees, outstanding balances), 1992-2024 (analysis restricted to 2002-2024), by loan tranche and transaction. Borrower identities anonymized; country, sector, income-group retained. Data obtained by the authors in their capacity as IFC/World Bank Group staff. Access requires contacting the corresponding author, Florian Mölders (fmoelders@ifc.org), who coordinates internally with IFC; granted at IFC's discretion subject to an NDA. Anonymized file received by the authors from an IFC colleague on May 13, 2025.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Confidential; not for public release or redistribution
    Citation
    International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. "IFC Loan Cash Flow Database" [Confidential dataset]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Accessed by authors in institutional capacity, 2024-2026.
    Name
    IFC Loan Terms Database
    Note
    File: Loan terms_anonymized.dta. Held outside the shareable package; not included. Loan-level terms records for IFC's lending portfolio, including project approval date and contractual loan tenure, for loans approved through 2024. Used to assign approval year and contracted tenor. Data obtained by the authors in their capacity as IFC/World Bank Group staff. Access requires contacting the corresponding author, Florian Mölders (fmoelders@ifc.org), who coordinates internally with IFC; granted at IFC's discretion subject to an NDA. Anonymized file received by the authors from an IFC colleague on May 13, 2025.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Confidential; not for public release or redistribution
    Citation
    International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. "IFC Loan Terms Database" [Confidential dataset]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Accessed by authors in institutional capacity, 2024-2026.
    Name
    IFC Default Database
    Note
    File: IFC default data_anonymized.dta. Held outside the shareable package; not included. Institution-year panel of default events in IFC's portfolio (default date, recovery information, anonymized institution identifiers), 1991-2024 (analysis restricted to 2002-2024). Data obtained by the authors in their capacity as IFC/World Bank Group staff. Access requires contacting the corresponding author, Florian Mölders (fmoelders@ifc.org), who coordinates internally with IFC; granted at IFC's discretion subject to an NDA. Anonymized file received by the authors from an IFC colleague on May 13, 2025.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Confidential; not for public release or redistribution
    Citation
    International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. "IFC Default Database" [Confidential dataset]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Accessed by authors in institutional capacity, 2024-2026.
    Name
    JPMorgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/jpm_cembi_broad_diversified_total_return.xlsx. Monthly total return index levels (overall and country sub-indices), coverage from January 2002 for the broad index; key column: 'EM Debt Indices | CEMBI BROAD DIVERSIFIED | Cum Tot Ret Idx'. Proprietary to JPMorgan Chase & Co., distributed under a data license agreement; obtained by the authors via a Bloomberg terminal subscription. Independent replicators must obtain their own access via Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, or directly from JPMorgan. Accessed February 2026.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    JPMorgan/Bloomberg Data License Agreement
    Citation
    JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026. "CEMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index" [Data file]. Retrieved via Bloomberg terminal. Accessed February 2026.
    Name
    JPMorgan EMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/jpm_embi_broad_diversified_total_return.xlsx. Monthly total return index levels, coverage from January 1994. Proprietary to JPMorgan Chase & Co., distributed under a data license agreement; obtained by the authors via a Bloomberg terminal subscription. Independent replicators must obtain their own access via Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream, or directly from JPMorgan. Accessed February 2026.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    JPMorgan/Bloomberg Data License Agreement
    Citation
    JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026. "EMBI Broad Diversified Total Return Index" [Data file]. Retrieved via Bloomberg terminal. Accessed February 2026.
    Name
    US Treasury 7-10 Year Total Return Series
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/us_treasury_7_10yr_total_return_monthly.csv. Monthly total return index for 7-10 year US Treasuries; used as the US Treasury benchmark in Tables 2 and 3. Sourced from Datastream (Thomson Reuters/LSEG), which requires a paid subscription. Accessed January 2026.
    Access policy
    Data access was granted directly to the study authors by the data owners/managers. It was obtained with a custom data license that does not allow for redistribution and it is not included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    LSEG Datastream Subscription License
    Citation
    LSEG Datastream. 2026. "US Treasury 7-10 Year Total Return Index" [Data file]. Retrieved via Datastream. Accessed January 2026.
    Name
    IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/imf_real_gdp_growth_annual.csv. Annual real GDP growth rates for all IMF member countries. Accessed January 2026.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    The Use of IMF Data
    License URL
    https://www.imf.org/en/about/copyright-and-terms
    Data URL
    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
    Citation
    International Monetary Fund. 2026. "World Economic Outlook Database" [Data file]. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO. Accessed January 2026.
    Name
    World Bank Country and Lending Groups - Historical Classification
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/wb_country_income_classification_historical.xlsx. World Bank fiscal-year income group classifications (Low, Lower-Middle, Upper-Middle, High Income) from FY1988 onward, for all World Bank member countries. Accessed February 2026.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519
    Citation
    World Bank. 2026. "World Bank Country and Lending Groups - Historical Classification" [Data file]. https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org. Accessed February 2026.
    Name
    ISO Country Master File
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/iso_country_codes_master.xlsx. Authors' compilation: crosswalk of country name variants ('Name Variants') to ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes ('iso'), based on the ISO 3166-1 standard and World Bank/IFC country name conventions. Resolves country names to ISO3 codes in the IFC default database, which has no native ISO3 field.
    Access policy
    Data is included in the reproducibility package.
    Citation
    International Organization for Standardization. "ISO 3166-1 Country Codes" [Reference standard]. Compiled with World Bank/IFC name variants.
    Name
    IFC IDA/FCS Country Classification List, 2006-2025
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/ifc_fcs_ida_country_classification_2006_2025.xlsx. Country-year panel of IDA eligibility status and Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS) classification, 2006-2025. Published annually by IFC and can be accessed by IFC staff only.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package. It can be accessed by IFC staff.
    Citation
    International Finance Corporation (IFC). 2025. "IFC IDA/FCS Country Classification List 2006-2025" [Data file]. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C.
    Name
    World Bank IDA Eligibility
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/wb_ida_eligibility_country_year.xlsx. Country-year panel of IDA eligibility status; used for IDA eligibility classification in Table 8. Accessed February 2026.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/debt/brief/ida-eligibility
    Citation
    World Bank. 2026. "IDA Eligibility" [Data file]. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/debt/brief/ida-eligibility. Accessed February 2026.
    Name
    World Bank International Debt Statistics (IDS) - EMDE Private Non-Guaranteed External Debt Disbursements
    Note
    Series DT.DIS.DPNG.CD, fetched automatically at run time by Table_1_Summary_Statistics.py via the World Bank Data API v2. Used in Table 1 (IFC disbursements as a share of EMDE private non-guaranteed debt). A cached copy of the most recent fetch is saved to Data/Public/ids_cache_dpng.csv and used as a fallback if the API is unavailable. Accessed April 2026.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://api.worldbank.org/v2/
    Citation
    World Bank. 2026. "International Debt Statistics" [API series DT.DIS.DPNG.CD]. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/. Accessed April 2026.
    Name
    World Development Indicators
    Note
    File location: Data/Public/wdi_macro_indicators_annual.csv. Country-year panel, 1990-2024, all WDI economies, fetched via the wbgapi package. Indicators: NY.GDP.MKTP.KN (real GDP, constant LCU), FP.CPI.TOTL (CPI, 2010=100), NY.GDP.DEFL.ZS (GDP deflator), PA.NUS.FCRF (official exchange rate, LCU per USD, period average). Accessed June 2026.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/legal/terms-of-use-for-datasets
    Data URL
    https://data.worldbank.org/
    Citation
    World Bank. 2026. "World Development Indicators" [dataset]. https://data.worldbank.org/. Accessed June 2026.
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    Returns To Private Debt In Emerging And Developing Economies
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Florian Moelders IFC fmoelders@ifc.org
    Shawn Cole Harvard Business School scole@hbs.edu
    Fanele Mashwama Harvard Business School fmashwama@fas.harvard.edu
    Cesaire Meh IFC cmeh@ifc.org
    Date of production

    2026-08-20

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Private Debt Emerging Markets Development Finance Public Market Equivalent Impact Investing
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    G23 Non-bank Financial Institutions • Financial Instruments • Institutional Investors G2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    F34 International Lending and Debt Problems F3 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O16 Financial Markets • Saving and Capital Investment • Corporate Finance and Governance O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    G24 Investment Banking • Venture Capital • Brokerage • Ratings and Ratings Agencies G2 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    MIT License https://opensource.org/license/mit
    World Bank IGO Rider https://github.com/worldbank/metadata-editor/blob/main/WB-IGO-RIDER.md

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Florian Moelders IFC fmoelders@ifc.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-08-20
    Document version

    1
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