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Reproducibility package for The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years

2026
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Reference ID
RR_WLD_2026_575
Author(s)
Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Umar Serajuddin, Divyanshi Wadhwa, Nishant Yonzan
Collections
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers
Metadata
JSON
Created on
Apr 06, 2026
Last modified
Apr 06, 2026
Page views
10
  • Project Description
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  • Reproducibility Package
  • Description
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  • Information on metadata
  • Overview

    Abstract

    Understanding and accurately measuring societal progress is crucial for guiding policy and development efforts. In this paper, we introduce a new method to measure societal progress that is comparable across different stages of development, time periods, and indicators. Utilizing this method, we analyze six key indicators of development with cross-country data from 1950 and find that the world is developing at its slowest pace in 75 years. This slowdown has already caused large development losses and will cause global poverty to increase if it continues. We identify 54 countries that are more than 100 years away from reaching standards associated with graduating to developed country status if they continue at their current pace. Our framework can be used to set development targets at various levels of ambition for every country and globally. The method involves specific data requirements, which means it is not suitable in all contexts.

    Reproducibility Package

    Scripts
    Readme Get Reproducibility Package
    Link: https://reproducibility.worldbank.org/catalog/524/download/1518/README.pdf
    Reproducibility package for The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years
    File name
    RR_WLD_2026_575
    Zip package
    RR_WLD_2026_575.zip
    Title
    Reproducibility package for The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years
    Date
    2026-03
    Dependencies
    R dependencies are listed in the file renv.lock.
    Instructions
    See README in reproducibility package.
    Notes
    Computational reproducibility verified by Development Impact (DECDI) Analytics team, World Bank.
    Source code repository
    Repository name URI
    Reproducible Research Repository (World Bank) https://reproducibility.worldbank.org
    Software
    R
    Name
    R
    Version
    4.5.1

    Reproducibility

    Technology environment

    Paper exhibits were reproduced on a computer with the following specifications:
    • OS: Windows 11 Enterprise
    • Processor: Intel(R) Xeon(R) Gold 6226R CPU @ 2.90GHz
    • Memory available: 32.0 GB

    Technology requirements

    Runtime: 14 hours.

    Reproduction instructions

    Once users have access to all the data, to reproduce the findings, a new user needs to:

    1. Run the 00-master.R script.

    Data

    Datasets
    World Bank country classification
    Name
    World Bank country classification
    Note
    Source: World Bank, Global Poverty & Inequality Data team (GPID). Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/class/CLASS.dta.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    Data URL
    https://github.com/GPID-WB/Class
    Citation
    Global Poverty and Inequality Data Lab (GPID), World Bank. (2026). CLASS [Dataset]. Available at: https://github.com/GPID-WB/Class/blob/master/OutputData/CLASS.dta. Accessed in January 2026.
    Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries
    Name
    Development Assistance Committee (DAC) countries
    Note
    Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/class/DAC.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 licence (CC BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/oda-eligibility-and-conditions/dac-list-of-oda-recipients.html
    Citation
    Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2026). DAC list of ODA recipients: Countries, territories and international organisations. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/oda-eligibility-and-conditions/dac-list-of-oda-recipients.html. Accessed in January 2026.
    UNCTAD classification
    Name
    UNCTAD classification
    Note
    Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Data Hub. Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/class/Dim_countries_Hierarchy_UnctadStat_All_Flat.csv.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    https://unctadstat.unctad.org/UnctadStatMetadata/Documentation/UNCTAD_CreativeCommonsLicense3.0_IGO_EN.pdf
    Data URL
    https://unctadstat.unctad.org/EN/Classifications/Dim_Countries_Hierarchy_UnctadStat_All_Flat.csv
    Citation
    United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2026). UNCTADstat country classification (economies) [dataset]. Available at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/EN/Classifications/Dim_Countries_Hierarchy_UnctadStat_All_Flat.csv. Accessed in January 2026.
    Human Development Index 2025
    Name
    Human Development Index 2025
    Note
    Source: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/class/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.csv and 01-inputdata/education/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/legalcode
    Data URL
    https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2025_HDR/HDR25_Composite_indices_complete_time_series.csv
    Citation
    United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). (2026). All composite indices and components time series (1990–2023) [dataset]. Available at: https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/documentation-and-downloads. Accessed in January 2026.
    IMF metadata
    Name
    IMF metadata
    Note
    Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF). Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/class/Metadata_Oct2024.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Custom license
    Data URL
    https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/Metadata_Oct2024.xlsx
    Citation
    International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). DataMapper metadata (October 2024). Available at: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/Metadata_Oct2024.xlsx. Accessed in January 2026.
    Historical educational attainment
    Name
    Historical educational attainment
    Note
    Source: Barro and Lee (2013). Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/education/BL_v3_MF1564.csv.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://github.com/barrolee/BarroLeeDataSet/blob/master/BLData/BL_v3_MF1564.csv
    Citation
    Barro, Robert J., and Jong Wha Lee. 2013. A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950–2010. Journal of Development Economics 104: 184–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001.
    Maddison Project Database
    Name
    Maddison Project Database
    Note
    Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre. Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/gdp/maddison2023_web.dta.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://dataverse.nl/api/access/datafile/421303
    Citation
    MPD version 2023: Bolt, Jutta and Jan Luiten van Zanden (2024), "Maddison style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update", Journal of Economic Surveys, 1–41. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12618. Accessed in January 2026.
    World Development Indicators (WDI)
    Name
    World Development Indicators (WDI)
    Note
    Source: World Bank. Access date: January 10, 2026. Indicators used: GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) (NY.GDP.PCAP.KD), GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) (NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD), Cereal yield (kg per hectare) (AG​.YLD​.CREL​.KG), Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population) (EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS), Access to electricity, rural (% of rural population) (EG​.ELC​.ACCS​.RU​.ZS), Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) (IT.CEL.SETS.P2), Individuals using the Internet (% of population) (IT​.NET​.USER​.ZS), Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2021 international $) (NY.GNP.PCAP.PP.KD), School enrollment, tertiary (% gross) (SE.TER.ENR), Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) (SH.DYN.MORT), People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population) (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population) (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) (SH.IMM.IDPT), Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) (SH.IMM.MEAS), People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population) (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population) (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Prevalence of stunting, height for age (modeled estimate, % of children under 5) (SH​.STA​.STNT​.ME​.ZS), Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) (SH.TBS.INCD), Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) (SL.EMP.VULN.ZS), Employment in services (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) (SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS), Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS). File location: 01-inputdata/gdp/wdi.Rda and 01-inputdata/wdi/wdi.Rda.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY 4.0)
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    Data URL
    https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
    Citation
    World Bank. (2026). World Development Indicators [dataset]. World Bank. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed on January 10, 2026.
    WDI metadata
    Name
    WDI metadata
    Note
    Source: Author’s construction. Description: Indicator names, labels, and directions. File location: 01-inputdata/wdi/metadata.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    Women’s Political Empowerment
    Name
    Women’s Political Empowerment
    Note
    Source: Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, downloaded via the vdemdata package. Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/gender/vdem.Rda.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License CC-BY-SA-license
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en
    Citation
    Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Fabio Angiolillo, Michael Bernhard, Agnes Cornell, M. Steven Fish, Linnea Fox, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerløw, Adam Glynn, Ana Good God, Sandra Grahn, Allen Hicken, Katrin Kinzelbach, Joshua Krusell, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Juraj Medzihorsky, Natalia Natsika, Anja Neundorf, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Johannes von Römer, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Aksel Sundström, Marcus Tannenberg, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Felix Wiebrecht, Tore Wig, Steven Wilson and Daniel Ziblatt. 2025. "Country-Year: V-Dem Full+Others version 15" Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://doi.org/10.23696/vdemds25.
    PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2024) v2.7
    Name
    PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2024) v2.7
    Note
    Source: PRIMAP (Potsdam Real-Time Integrated Model for the probabilistic Assessment of emission Paths). Gütschow, Busch, and Pflüger (2025). Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-intputdata/ghggdp/Guetschow_et_al_2025a-PRIMAP-hist_v2.7_final_22-Aug-2025.csv.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
    License URL
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en
    Data URL
    https://zenodo.org/records/17090760/files/Guetschow_et_al_2025a-PRIMAP-hist_v2.7_final_22-Aug-2025.csv?download=1
    Citation
    Gütschow, Johannes; Busch, Daniel; Pflüger, Mika (2025): The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2024) v2.7. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17090760. Accessed in January 2026.
    UN World Population Prospects 2024
    Name
    UN World Population Prospects 2024
    Note
    Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/lifeexpectancy-population/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx.
    Access policy
    Data is publicly available and included in the reproducibility package.
    License
    Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO
    License URL
    http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
    Data URL
    https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx
    Citation
    United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition. Accessed in January 2026.
    UNSD Energy Stats Database
    Name
    UNSD Energy Stats Database
    Note
    Source: United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), Energy Statistics Division. Access date: January 2026. File location: 01-inputdata/electricity/
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package. The database can be ordered through United Nations Shop. Requests from Government institutions are considered on a case by case basis and should be sent to: energy_stat@un.org.
    Data URL
    https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/data/
    Citation
    United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). (2025). Energy Statistics Database. Available at https://unstats.un.org/unsd/energystats/data/.
    Comparable welfare data
    Name
    Comparable welfare data
    Note
    File location: 01-inputdata/poverty/*. Data are deposited in the Development Data Hub and are available to World Bank staff. For external users, access can be granted upon request to dmahler@worldbank.org. Please note that the data URL is accessible only to World Bank staff.
    Access policy
    Data access requires purchase or human approval and is not included in the reproducibility package.
    Data URL
    https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/int/data/dataset/0067047/comparable_welfare_vectors
    Citation
    Mahler, Daniel Gerszon; Foster, Elizabeth; Lakner, Christoph; Prinsloo, Zander; Tchouakam Mbouendeu, Rostand; Tetteh-Baah, Samuel K. (2025). Comparable welfare vectors [dataset].
    Data statement

    Some data is restricted and has not been included in the reproducibility package. For more details, please refer to the README file.

    Description

    Output
    The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years
    Type
    Working Paper
    Title
    The World Is Developing At Its Slowest Pace In 75 Years
    Description
    Policy Research Working Papers (PRWP)
    Authors
    Author Affiliation Email
    Daniel Gerszon Mahler World Bank dmahler@worldbank.org
    Umar Serajuddin World Bank userajuddin@worldbank.org
    Divyanshi Wadhwa World Bank dwadhwa@worldbank.org
    Nishant Yonzan World Bank nyonzan@worldbank.org
    Date of production

    2026-03-30

    Scope and coverage

    Geographic locations
    Location Code
    World WLD
    Keywords
    Societal Progress Development Indicators Development Targets
    Topics
    ID Topic Parent topic ID Vocabulary Vocabulary URI
    O10 General O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    O15 Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration O1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    C14 Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General C1 Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)
    Q0 General Q Journal of Economic Literature (JEL)

    Disclaimer

    Disclaimer

    The materials in the reproducibility packages are distributed as they were prepared by the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this event do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, the Executive Directors of the World Bank, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the materials included in the reproducibility package.

    Access and rights

    License
    Name URI
    Modified BSD3 https://opensource.org/license/bsd-3-clause/

    Contacts

    Contacts
    Name Affiliation Email
    Daniel Gerszon Mahler World Bank dmahler@worldbank.org
    Reproducibility WBG World Bank reproducibility@worldbank.org

    Information on metadata

    Producers
    Name Abbreviation Affiliation Role
    Reproducibility WBG DECDI World Bank - Development Impact Department Verification and preparation of metadata
    Date of Production

    2026-03-30

    Document version

    1

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